Borders & Boundaries: Ukraine

https://quincyinst.org/research/the-diplomatic-path-to-a-secure-ukraine/#h-can-ukraine-thrive-while-war-continues

When did Russia invade Ukraine?

February 2022

What was the pretext of Russia's invasion

It was an escalation of an eight-year conflict beginning with Russia's annexation of Crimea

What did analysts initially think of the annexation?

They believed it to be a strategic blunder by Putin

How has Ukraine responded geopolitically?

They have increased efforts to join the EU and NATO, among other western political blocs

What was the value of Ukraine to the USSR?

it was the second most populous and powerful soviet republic; it was also home to the Union's agriculture, military production, and nuclear arsenal.

What internal divisions has Ukraine faced?

A nationalist, Ukrainian speaking west that favors integration with Europe opposes a russian speaking east that favors ties with russia

What was the genesis of the Ukraine conflict?

In 2014, Russia annexed Crimea and supported separatists in the Donbas

How many people died in the Donbas wars?

>14,000

What are Russia's "familial” interests in Ukraine?

Russia and Ukraine share cultural ties that go back centuries; Kiev is sometimes called "the mother of Russian cities.”

How did the Russian diaspora factor into the invasion?

~8 million ethnic Russians live in Ukraine; Russia used their security as a pretext for invasion

What is a political interest for Russia's invasion of Ukraine?

Many russian politicians view the seperation of Ukraine from the USSR as a blow to Russia's superpower status

When was Crimea transferred from Russia to Ukraine?

In 1954 by Nikita Khruschev to strengthen "brotherly ties”

How does trade factor into Russia's invasion?

Russia was Ukraine's largest trading partner until recent years; prior to its invasion, Russia hoped to pull Ukraine into its trading bloc

How does energy factor into the invasion?

Ukraine pumped Russian gas to European customers

How does Russia hope to preserve its political influence over Ukraine?

Russia hoped to maintain the influence it had over Ukraine with Yanukovych as president.

What ignited the Euromaidan protests?

President Yanukovych, pressured by moscow, scrapped plans to formalize relations with the EU

How did Putin frame Euromaidan?

He framed it as a western backed fascist coup that endangered the Russian-majority Crimea

How did Putin justify his annexation of the Donbas?

He referred to the area as Novorossiya (New Russia) and is believed to have backed seperatists in the region

How does NATO play into the invasion?

NATO violated pledges that they would not expand in the 90s; Putin warned US diplomats not to bring in Ukraine and waged war against Georgia to prove his point

How did Ukraine strengthen ties with NATO before the invasion

They held annual military exercises with the alliance and became an enhanced opportunity partner in 2020

What did Russia demand of NATO in the weeks leading up to the invasion?

They demanded a cession of NATO expansion, that they seek Russian consent for certain deployments, and that they remove nuclear weapons from Europe

What did Applebaum (🤮) say about Putin?

That he wanted Ukrainian democracy to fail, he wanted surrounding european countries to doubt the efficacy of democracy, and he wanted foreign investors to flee.

Why did Russia seize Crimea?

It is a strategic foothold in the black sea, which leads to the Mediterranean, North Africa, and the Middle East

What is Russia’s goal in invasion?

Russia wants to make Russia look great again