Tectonics case studies

Haiti 2010

Haiti 2010

magnitude 7 over 200 000 deaths and 300 000 injured 13km from surface multiple hazard zone

19th most densely populated country 2010 poorest country in Western hemisphere no building codes corruption

Christchurch 2011

magnitude 6.2 5km depth 181 deaths 2000 injured

HIC HDI 0.82 building codes since 1935

Iceland eruption 2010

VEI 3 flights cancelled for a week over Europe 10 mil passengers stranded airlines lost 1.7 bil USD in revenue European economy lost 5 billion

Mt. St. Helens 1980

VEI 5 61 deaths 1 bil USD ash caused flooding and fishing destruction

0.59 HDI 29 900 USD GDP per capita

Montserrat 1995

VEI 3 19 deaths Plymouth (capital) covered in ash and mud half of island had to be evacuated

98 people/km squared exclusion zone set up

Hazards caused by volcanoes

pyroclastic flows (Montserrat 1997) lava flows Ash falls gas eruptions (Mt Pinatubo 1991)

Jokulhaulps (Iceland 2010) Lahars (Mt Pinatubo 1991) Tsunami (Krakatoa 1883)

Indian Ocean Tsunami 2004

magnitude 9.1 earthquake 51m run up height over 200 000 deaths in 14 countries 9 billion USD train de railed in Sri Lanka (1000 deaths) Cholera outbreak in refugee camp killing 150 000 destruction of fishing boats and ocean floor

0.63 HDI 133rd corruption ranking not much monitoring

Japan Tsunami 2011

magnitude 9 39m run up height 20 000 deaths 300 billion USD created over 300 000 refugees

0.89 HDI 14th corruption ranking extensive public education, DART

Hawaii Hotspot

200 miles across pacific ocean Pacific Plate moves North West Basalt lava Lava fountains Vog (So2 droplets)

Tectonic Theory

1906 Oldham - seismic waves hit a solid core 1912 Wegener - continental drift 1930s Inga Lehman - inner core solid (3 mil x g pressure) 1960 Harry Hess - seafloor spreading 1963 - Paleomagnetism, magnetic striping 1968 - core samples dating ocean floor

4 points of tectonic theory

Mantle convection slab pull convection seafloor spreading (paleomagnetism)

Philippines MHZ

over 700 islands 18 active volcanoes (RoF)

subduction zone

typhoons, EQ, tsunamis

8 of the top 10 most at risk cities in the world

2013-14 Oct EQ Nov Typhoon Haiyan Jan floods

1991 - floods and landslides rainstorms blamed on logging landlessness led to rural-urban migration, squatter settlements

2006 EQ triggered 3m high tsunami and landslides

Philippines vulnerability

high population increase (10% in past 10 years)

25% in poverty

0.699 HDI (113th)

PAR model

measure of vulnerability

Root causes - power/structure/resources, political and economic systems dynamic pressures - skills, population change, deforestation, local investment unsafe conditions - dangerous location, unprotected buildings, low income, lack of preparedness

Hazards

Haiti 2010 - Response

Aid donated 13 bil by 2015 only 10% to government slow rebuild - reluctance to give money to corrupt government so projects managed externally

'cash for work' paying locals to clear rubble still 1300 camps after 1 year

NZ 2011 - response

temporary housing provided 6-7 mil international aid pop up hospitals

new gov task force created zoning earthquake drills

Montserrat 1997 response

volcanic observatory built exclusion zone

Mt St Helens - response

research into eruption informed elsewhere

Indian Ocean 2004 - responses

French and Indian satellites provided intel aid from other Asian counties

DART system put in place accelerometers tidal guages

Tohoku 2011 - responses

army built temporary shelters doctors flown from other parts of the country

Fukushima nuclear power plant shut down

sea walls

adaptions made to evacuation plans and policies

Measuring hazards

magnitude VEI Mercalli scale

Hazard management cycle

prevention and mitigation preparation response recovery

Deggs model

measure of risk - hazard, disaster and vulnerability

Park's hazard model

QOL, economic activity, social stability against time

Swiss cheese model of disaster causation

flaws in management, more losses will be accrued

Hazard Risk Equation

risk = hazard x vulnerability / capacity to cope

Strategies to reduce impact of tectonic hazards

land use zoning -keep out of dangerous areas hazard-resistant buildings -to absorb energy of EQ strong roofs -ash resistant Sea walls -protect from tsunami emergency services

• rescue injured people prediction systems -to give time to evacuate diversion of lava flows -limit damage education -prepared to evacuate/take cover

Land use zoning

Mount Taranaki NZ

• extends to areas which could receive 10cm ash deposits

• settlements limited/people resettled

• prevent development in areas of natural protection eg mangroves

Not always possible in LICs/densely populated areas

Diverting lava flows

Mt Etna 1983

• successfully diverted with channels and barriers

However:

• hard to predict

• must be a suitable downward terrain

• can push towards another community

GIS mapping

eg Nepal 2015

• show areas affected

• rough populations

• nearest airports

Engineering

collapsing buildings one of largest causes of deaths

• sloped roofs near volcanoes to prevent ash buildup

• ball bearings

• sea walls eg Japan 50m

• strengthening foundations

or low tech

• Pakistan - bales of hay and plaster crack but don’t collapse

High tech monitoring

• GIS

• early warning systems eg sirens in Phuket

• satellite communication systems Indian Ocean monitoring every 15 seconds

• mobile phone technology

Crisis mapping

Haiti 2010

• Ushahidi used to build map

• locals reported trapped people and resources

Public education

• emergency procedures eg 4x per year in Japanese schools and annual disaster prevention day

• encouragement of emergency preparedness kits

Community preparedness

Best when formalised

• Chinese best practise posters for building techniques eg interlocking walls

• Thai Moken elders hilltop evacuation

Managing loss

• aid

• NGOs

• insurance

• community action

Role of NGOs

eg Red Cross, Red Crescent Pakistan 2005

• 500 000 tents

• 6 mil blankets

Oxfam

60 000 livelihoods - livestock and animal feed