are opinion polls good to use in elections and referendums? should they be banned?

a03

they are good and should not be banned

theme 1

they influence voting

weak 1

people can respond to opinion polls and this can affect their voting (negative as it can see tactical voting)

• younger people has a lower turnout and older turned out more in 2016 eu referendum - of 168 polls, only 55 predicted the UK would leave and only 16 predicted 52-48% outcome

strong 1

it is good that people can make informed decisions when voting. the flaws with FPTP means that people should have this information so that their vote is not wasted

• 2019 libdem projected 13 (in reality was 11) in exit poll so people can use vote in a more ‘useful’ way

• greens not projected highly so won’t make a difference in eg. a conservative area

theme 2

the reliabilities of information

weak 2

some years the opinion polls are proven to be incorrect. people can decide their vote on bad information

• murder of jo cox many didn’t want to say they were voting leave

• big red bus lie on £350M for NHS a week

strong 2

most years the opinion polls are accurate

• IPSO exit poll = labour 410 seats (actually 412) and cons 131 (actually 121) → Labour landslide predicted

theme 3

politicians react to opinion polls

weak 3

politicians can be influenced by the opinion polls and can make a dramatic U-turn based on them

• Reform UK IPSO predict 13 seats but only got 5 → grew more confident and Farage thought he had larger support base than he did

strong 3

politicians need to listen to the public. opinion polls help politicians to understand what the electorate want

• jan 5th labour 6.6% lead in opinion polls

• jan 15th conservatives had a 7.5% lead following the sun’s crisis what crisis? article mocking Callaghan - public wanted reforms surrounding the winter of discontent, and led to a 9% DE swing towards thatcher