Ukraine War Exam #2

coercive diplomacy

the use of threats to influence the outcome of a bargaining interaction

boiling the frog

metaphor for how a person or society will tolerate a deteriorating situation if it changes slowly and gradually, rather than reacting to a sudden, immediate crisis.

Battle of Kyiv

(Feb. 24 - Apr. 2, 2022) A failed Russian attempt to capture the Ukrainian capital and overthrow its government during the initial invasion. Russian forces advanced from the north but were met with stiff Ukrainian resistance, particularly in the suburbs like Hostomel, Bucha, and Irpin. This intense defense, coupled with significant Russian military miscalculations, prevented a quick Russian victory and ultimately forced them to retreat from the Kyiv region by early April 2022.

Russian nuclear doctrine (2024 revisions)

Broadens the circumstances in which it says it could use nuclear weapons. The biggest changes are the addition of a new trigger for large-scale air, drone, and hypersonic attacks; explicit extension of the nuclear umbrella to Belarus; and a shift in language from threats to Russia's "existence" to threats to its "sovereignty" or "territorial integrity," which is a lower and more ambiguous threshold.

The significance lies in how these changes function politically rather than mechanically: they expand the gray zone where Russia claims nuclear use is possible, increasing coercive leverage and strategic ambiguity. But it would be a mistake to assume this means Russia is more likely to use nuclear weapons; it may instead be signaling to deter deeper Western involvement in Ukraine.

Putin's 2022 Annexation Speech

Asserts that the four occupied Ukrainian regions are now "Russian forever," framing their absorption as permanent and non-negotiable. By declaring residents to be Russian citizens and insisting their status is off the table in any talks, he tried to redefine the war as a defensive struggle for Russian territory rather than an invasion of Ukraine.

The significance is twofold: legally and rhetorically, it attempts to transform aggression into a protective action, creating a pretext to invoke Russia's nuclear doctrine (which includes defending "territorial integrity"). Strategically, it aims to lock in territorial claims and force Ukraine and the West to confront the risk that continued resistance could trigger escalation—though this rests on the assumption that recognition equals legitimacy, which the international system overwhelmingly rejects.

gamble for resurrection

A situation where a leader facing failure takes on excessive risk to try and save themselves. This can be seen in international relations as a leader risking war to maintain power with the hope that a big win will restore them, even though a loss could be catastrophic.

war of attrition

a prolonged war or period of conflict during which each side seeks to gradually wear out the other by a series of small-scale actions

strategic vs. tactical nuclear weapons

Strategic weapons designed for long-range attacks on a nation's infrastructure and cities, while tactical weapons are intended for shorter-range use on the battlefield to affect specific military targets

Ukraine summer 2023 offensive

A large-scale but ultimately unsuccessful attempt to recapture territory from Russian forces, particularly in the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions. Despite recapturing 14 villages, Ukraine failed to achieve its strategic goal of cutting Russian supply lines to Crimea due to a well-prepared Russian defensive line that included extensive minefields, trenches, and anti-tank obstacles. The offensive faced slow progress, heavy casualties, and was hampered by factors like the lack of air superiority and the pervasive use of drones.

UNSC Chapter 7 Authority

Grants the UN Security Council the power to determine threats to international peace and take binding measures, including military action, to maintain or restore it.

While the UNSC has addressed the conflict through resolutions and calls for withdrawal, it has not yet used its full Chapter VII enforcement power because of Russia's veto power as a permanent member.

Surovikin Line

A complex system of Russian defensive fortifications in southern and eastern Ukraine, consisting of multiple layers of trenches, minefields, and anti-tank obstacles

Uniting for Peace Resolution

The mechanism the UN Security Council used on February 27, 2022, to refer the Russia-Ukraine conflict to the General Assembly due to Russia's veto. This led to the General Assembly adopting resolution ES-11/1 on March 2, 2022, which deplored Russia's aggression, demanded an immediate ceasefire and withdrawal, and reaffirmed Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Wagner Group

- Russian mercenary army founded by Yevgeny Prigozhin, a former convict who spent 9 years in prison (4 of them in solitary)

- Recruits mainly from Russian prisons, with the promise of a pardon or a reduced sentence after serving

- Allows Russia plausible deniability when Wagner fighters commit atrocities, since they're technically not regular army

- Roughly 60,000 Wagner mercenaries have been killed or wounded in Ukraine since 2022, the heavy casualties prompting Prigozhin to turn on Putin and his inner circle

Zelensky's April 2022 UN speech

Argues that the Security Council has failed at its core mission, maintaining peace, because Russia's veto power allows it to wage war with impunity while blocking collective action. By claiming the veto has become a "right to kill," he warns that if this structural flaw isn't fixed, states will abandon faith in international law and rely solely on their own force, effectively hollowing out the UN system.

The significance is stark: he's not just condemning Russia but indicting the institutional design of the Security Council itself, pushing members to confront an uncomfortable dilemma—either reform the veto structure or accept a world where the UN's authority collapses. A useful challenge here is whether such reform is politically possible at all; calling for it highlights the crisis but doesn't resolve the structural power realities that created it.

Yevgeny Prigozhin

Led the Wagner Group private military company, close to Putin before launching a rebellion in June, killed in August when his private jet crashed, possibly due to an on-board explosive (8/23/23)

International Criminal Court (ICC)

A court of last resort for human rights cases that possesses jurisdiction only if the accused is a national of a state party, the crime took place on the territory of a state party, or the UN Security Council has referred the case to the prosecutor.

economic sanctions

Boycotts, embargoes, and other economic measures that one country uses to pressure another country into changing its policies.

Crimes subject to ICC jurisdiction

Genocide, crimes against humanity, war crimes, and the crime of aggression

carve-outs

An exception or exemption that legally permits certain activities or entities to be exempt from a sanctions measure, such as an asset freeze or trade restriction. These exemptions are often created to allow for humanitarian aid, prevent unintended consequences, or mitigate specific risks, ensuring that the broader sanctions do not block necessary and beneficial activities

Article 12 of the Rome Treaty

Allows a state that is not a member of the Rome Statute to accept the ICC's jurisdiction for a specific time period or situation.

Ukraine, while not a state party to the statute, has used this provision to grant the International Criminal Court (ICC) jurisdiction over crimes committed on its territory. Ukraine made two such declarations: the first in 2014, and the second, which covers the ongoing conflict from February 20, 2014, onward. Russia's non-party status does not prevent the ICC from investigating alleged crimes committed by Russian nationals within Ukraine.

transshipment

The deceptive practice of routing goods through a third country to disguise their true origin and circumvent trade laws.

Purpose: To evade import duties (tariffs), bypass trade embargoes or sanctions, or misrepresent the country of origin to claim benefits under free trade agreements.

complementarity principle (of the ICC)

The ICC can only intervene when a country is unwilling or unable to genuinely investigate and prosecute international crimes

oil price cap

A limit on the price of Russian oil. If oil is sold for more than the cap, Western service providers (like those for insurance and shipping) are banned from being involved in the transaction.

Goals

Reduce Russia's war profits

Maintain global oil supply: The cap is intended to prevent a complete embargo, which could disrupt the global oil supply and lead to price shocks.

Limit inflation: Keeping oil flowing to the global market helps to keep prices down for consumers and businesses worldwide

the crime of aggression (& the ICC)

The use of armed force by a state against the territorial integrity or political independence of another state, and the International Criminal Court (ICC) has jurisdiction to prosecute individuals for it under specific conditions.

•Prosecution can be initiated only if UNSC finds that aggression has occurred.

•Aimed at prosecutions of senior officials responsible for aggression.

Severe Limits on Jurisdiction

1.Absent a UNSC referral, the ICC only has jurisdiction over members of the ICC.

2.No jurisdiction over ICC members who have not ratified the aggression amendments. To date, only 49 ratifications.

3.Even those who ratified the amendments can "opt out" at any time.

Rosneft & Lukoil

Rosneft and Lukoil are Russia's two largest oil companies, engaged in the exploration, production, refining, and sale of oil and gas. They are major players in the global energy market, with significant assets and operations inside and outside of Russia. In October 2025, the United States and the United Kingdom imposed significant new sanctions on both companies, restricting their ability to do business internationally.

informational asymmetry

Occurs when one state possesses superior or more complete information than another regarding matters like military strength, political intentions, or economic conditions. This imbalance can lead to misperceptions, strategic advantages, and even conflict, as states may miscalculate the risks and probabilities of different outcomes based on their limited knowledge of the other's capabilities or resolve.

shadow fleet

A collection of ships that use deceptive and often illegal practices to transport sanctioned goods.

A collection of aging oil tankers, often owned by non-Western entities and using deceptive practices, that operates outside of Western oversight to circumvent sanctions and transport Russian oil.

Credible commitment

A situation where actors cannot trust each other to uphold an agreement, even if it is in their mutual best interest, because there is a risk that one party will renege on their promise due to a change in incentives over time

Frozen assets debate

Refers to the ongoing international discussion and disagreement over whether to use the billions of dollars in frozen Russian central bank assets to fund Ukraine's defense and reconstruction. The core of the debate involves balancing Ukraine's need for financial support against legal and financial concerns, such as the principle of sovereign immunity for Russia and the potential for financial instability if assets are confiscated.

peace vs. justice debate

Centers on whether immediate peace or long-term justice should be prioritized after a conflict, as pursuing one can sometimes seem to hinder the other. One perspective is that justice may require accountability that could disrupt peace negotiations, while the opposing view is that justice is essential for lasting peace, as it helps prevent future violence by addressing the root causes of conflict and reinstating the rule of law

vertical vs. horizontal escalation

Vertical escalation increases the intensity of a conflict, such as using more destructive weapons or expanding the types of targets, while horizontal escalation expands the geographic scope of the conflict, like involving new regions or countries

2022 Istanbul Communique

It proposed that Ukraine would end NATO membership plans and become a neutral country, in exchange for security guarantees; whereby Russia and various Western countries would be obliged to help Ukraine militarily if it were attacked. It also proposed limits on Ukraine's military.

Stability-Instability Paradox

When two countries each have nuclear weapons, the probability of a direct war between them greatly decreases, but the probability of minor or indirect conflicts between them increases.

porcupine strategy

An asymmetric defense approach that aims to make an invasion prohibitively costly for a stronger adversary by using a large number of small, mobile, and lethal weapons, rather than relying on traditional heavy forces

escalate to de-escalate

Refers to the tactical use of nuclear weapons for battlefield gains before de-escalating. In the current context, Putin may be seeking to wield the threat of the use of nuclear weapons, without their actual deployment on the battlefield, to compel his adversary to concede. Russia is losing ground in the conflict, but threatening use of its nuclear arsenal allows Moscow to appear that it is operating from a position of strength, a nuclear power on par with the United States.

negotiated settlement vs. a ceasefire/armistice

A negotiated settlement (or peace treaty) is a permanent, formal agreement that addresses the underlying causes of a conflict and formally ends the state of war. A ceasefire/armistice, by contrast, is an agreement to stop active fighting, which is typically temporary and a preliminary step to the negotiation of a comprehensive peace treaty.

Deterrence

An effort to preserve the status quo through the threat of force

Article 5 (NATO)

An attack on one is an attack on all

the nuclear taboo

the idea that a specific international norm has gradually become accepted by the international community that the use of nuclear weapons is unacceptable in warfare

4 scenarios for Ukraine's future

1. South Korea (Best Case): Ukraine gets foreign "tripwire" troops + strong US/EU guarantees. Stable, prosperous, democratic path.

2. Israel (Still OK): No foreign troops but long-term military/economic aid. Ukraine becomes a fortress; conflict risk stays high.

3. Georgia (Not Great): Weak support + no troops. Political drift, stalled Western integration, rising Russian influence, slow recovery.

4. Belarus (Worst Case): US abandons Ukraine; Europe can't compensate. Russia forces capitulation and makes Ukraine a vassal state.