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Define public opinion
those opinions held by private citizens which govt should listen to
Describe ways that public opinion can be measured
public opinion measured by polling, elections, suffrage, freedom of speech and press
Explain six elements that contribute to the forming of opinions.
attitudes: consistent and organized manners of thinking
ideologies: elaborate organized sets of beliefs; connect labels of liberal and conservative
partisanship: more indicative of opinions is party measurement; very rooted in personal identity
acquiring attitudes and ideologies: Political socialization, peer groups, conforming with social group, validating material or psychological aspirations
information: individuals are reluctant to actively engage with politics if not directly growing up with it or interacting with it
framing: beliefs and attitudes will also be shaped by context i.e. Biden being old = liability
Individual political opinions can be easily manipulated, quickly cemeted, contextual influence, inconsistent → all of this while being generally uninformed.
Discuss to what extent public opinion is meaningful
Individual opinions are badly informed, easily manipulated, and unstable. We use aggregate public opinion. Aggregate public opinion is generally stable over time.
Aggregate partisanship also impacts the perception of how the president in i.e. extremely low ratings from Republicans and vice versa
Free-riding problems also resolved by opinion leaders; opinions given rationality and coherence.
Describe the role that group differences such as gender and race can have on public opinion.
Gender, race, and income (in order) as cleavages in public opinion. These areas are more likely to predict public opinion in specific areas.
Other factors include educations, religion, age. Politicians will pay attention to specific groups as opportunities for coalition building strategies.
Discuss the influences and limitation of public opinion in American politics.
measuring and influencing is super important for American politics. Mass media becomes an influence of opinion as well.
Limitations include: general resistance to attitude changes, required to work by framing choices favorably rather than changing minds.
Areas of public opinion consensus
general support of capitalist economy with private ownership and free enterprise (variation in degree of regulation), ideals in the Constitution (amendments), dislike for politicians in general
Sociotropic voting
voter is doing okay but things around them aren’t great so you vote based on that
Age & Framing
wasn’t an issue until Biden v. Trump debate when it became experience (know how) vs. age (liability)
Partisanship
political affiliation as a predictor of attitude; if you identify as Democrat you will stick with party beliefs, even if they change their platform
Ideology Conservative vs. Liberal
Conservative: small government across issues, free market
Liberal: progressive across issues, government intervention, interpretivist constitution
How has polling changed in the history of American politics?
Scientific polling is a method of sound out on public on variety issues or to market ideas, policies, and politicians. A very good tool for systematically investigating the opinions of ordinary people. Better demonstration of people who stay at home (not a measurement of crowd sizes, loved the textbooks jab at this).
Explain the logic of elections in a democracy
Self-government upon independence was impossible, so we have elections to delegate authority while preventing agency loss. However, elections do not guarantee faithful representation.
Describe how different segments of American society obtained the right to vote.
Wider suffrage for men → suffrage for women → suffrage for people of color → suffrage for young Americans
Discuss the factors that affect how people vote.
Using cues and shortcuts to make decisions despite uncertain future; free information delivered by news, campaign advertising, opinion leaders, peer groups, party identification, and personal experience, past performance and incumbency.
Some people are also single issue voters, tand this will significantly influence how they vote.
Identify the basic elements of election campaigns.
Candidates: person portrayed as sufficiently qualified and trustworthy for job; candidates can notably lack political experience, talent, temperament, or background
Messages: focus groups to talk to regular people about candidates, issues, and events; Trump v. Clinton US vs. Them ideas; showing “I’m Just Like You!” (Vance vs. Walz); getting attention, debates, political advertising and attacks
Discuss the role of campaign money in elections.
US has super long campaign periods where negative advertising is much more effective than positive kind because of loss aversion
”They don’t worry about voters, they worry about money”
Discuss the principal-agent theory as it applies to elections.
Contrast of interests to voter vs. the elected in a republic system.
”They don’t worry about voters, they worry about money”
Biggest factor of voter decisions
Economic performance is highest on people’s minds; Kamala says in her book, thats what people go to sleep thinking about
Individual factors for turnout
Age: older people turn out, younger people less turnout
Race: highest for white and asian individuals
Region: South has lowest turnout
Length of residence: longer you live in a community, more likely to vote
Homeowners: own a home, more worried about property taxes
Employed: more likely to vote, unemployment decreases sense of efficacy; sort of helplessness
Efficacy in general: higher sense that actions can influence future, more voting
Church: religious communities in general, social capital increases likelihood to vote
Women vote a higher rates than men