Error and Uncertainty

FO102

When should you only us the word significant?

When discussing statistical test

Error blank mistake

Error does not equal mistake

Science

The pursuit and application of knowledge and undetsadning of the natural and social world following a systematic methodology based on evidence

Where can data come from

observations, test, and experiment

Key principles of science

1. must be accurate, precise, and reliable

2. must be testable and falsifiable

3. rely on empirical evidence 

4. involve the scientific community

accuracy

how close an obtained measurement, or average of measurements is to a true parameter value

Accuracy rate

the percentage of time that somethings is correct

precision

how much our measurements vary around some value, or how closely distributed they are to one another

validity

whether an instrument measures what is et out to measure

reliability

how consistently a method measures some information

repeatability

how consistently a method measure some quantity or quality in the same environmental conditions

reproducibility

how consistently a method measures some quantity or quality across environmental conditions

measurement error

the difference between a true value adn the obtained measurement

varaiblilty

the spread of the scores in a distribution from each other and the mean

the degree of uncertainty

represent the range of values we can expect to see whenever we measure something

systematic errors

gives measurements that are consistently different from the true value in nature

random errors

gives measurements that are different from one measurement to the next

anchoring bias (12 cognitive biases)

rely on the first/initial information received no matter how reliable that piece of information is

availability heuristic bias (12 cognitive biases)

People over estimate the importance of information that they have

Bandwagon effect (12 cognitive biases)

people do or believe in something not because they actually do believe it, but because they actually do believe it, but because the rest of the world believes it.

Choice supportive bias (12 cognitive biases)

people have they tendency to defense themselves because it was their choice

Confirmation bias (12 cognitive biases)

people tend to listen to information that confirms what we already know

ostrich bias (12 cognitive biases)

the decisions. (subconciou/not) to ignore negative information

outcome bias (12 cognitive biases)

judge the efficacy of a decision based primarily on how things turn out 

overconfidence bias (12 cognitive biases)

getting too confident adn start talking decisions not based on facts, but based on your opinion

placebo bias (12 cognitive biases)

when you believe something will have an effect on your, then it will actual cause that effect

survivorship bais (12 cognitive biases)

judging something based on the surviving information

selective perspective (12 cognitive biases)

cause people to perceive messages and actions according to their Fram of reference (overlook & forget)

Blind spots bias (12 cognitive biases)

thinking you are less than everyone else