Voting, Campaigns, and Elections (10)

Who could vote in 1787

21+ white men who owned property

Who can vote today

18+ citizens of the US

Turnout

#of people who voted / #of people who could vote

Problems with the Voting Age Population

Overestimates because includes noncitizens and ineligible voters

Who isn’t eligible to vote but is of age?

People who are incarcerated of have a previous felony conviction (varies by state)

Effect of voter registration not being automatic

Registration rates are lower because people have to do something before casting a ballot

Ways to lift registration burden

• Check box when at the DMV

• Same-day registration

Voter Registration rolls

Campaigns & administration

Campaigns

• Contacting voters

• Determining who is likely to turnout and targeting them

Administration

• How many people expected at each polling location

• How many ballots to print

• Layered districts at state/county/local level

Current “limits” on voting

• You have to do it yourself

• Convicted felons (varies by state)

• Voter registration requirements

There (is/is not) credible evidence that there is massive voter fraud.

Is NOT

Campaigns having legal fights over which ballots are valid in a close election and voting methods in general is ____________.

Normal

Candidates questioning the validity of the election results with little evidence is ____________.

Not normal

Allowing claims of fraud to escalate without evidence of fraud is REALLY DANGEROUS for democracy.

That’s it :)

We can want good election administration AND sometimes we will lose AND that doesn’t mean that it was because of fraud.

✨ Fraud is unlikely ✨

What kind of ballot do we use?

The Australian (Secret) Ballot

Previous voting method

A Democratic ballot, a Republican ballot, a Populist ballot, etc. each with their own color so less private

Current voting method

All offices of all parties printed on the same ballot for a general, and for primaries they’re all the same color

Do all ballots look the same?

No.

Ways to cast your ballot

• In-person, day of

• Early voting

• Mail-in voting

Does mail-in voting or voter ID laws advantage one party over the other?

It’s unclear, but we don’t think so.

Single-Member Districts

An electoral district that elects only one representative.

Drawing district boundaries

Every 10 years, we do a census, and then each state draws new boundaries based on results. State legislature writes, and the governor signs a law with new boundaries.

Two main forms of gerrymandering

Dilution & Concentration

Dilution gerrymandering

Split a small group up among districts

Concentration gerrymandering

Fit a large group in fewer districts

The vote counting method (can/can not) affect who wins.

Can

What do we use in the US to elect members of Congress?

Plurality or “First-past-the-post”

Plurality Rule

The person who gets the most votes wins

Majority Rule

The person who gets at least 50% + 1 wins

Proportional Representation (PR)

A multiple-member district system that awards seats to political parties in proportion to the percentage of the vote that each party won.

Plurality rule is why we have two parties.

3+ parties cannot survive in a plurality system.

Proportional Representation (does/does not) let you have multiple parties

Does

Plurality voting (can/can not) affect who wins.

Can

Why electoral college?

1. State-based (because of original US structure)

2. Founders were skeptical of masses

3. Simplifies campaigns

Referendum

A direct vote on a law that has been passed or on a government action

Initiative

A direct vote on a policy proposal

Recall

A direct vote to remove a public official

Referendums, initiatives, and recalls require ___________

signatures.

(True/False) Many campaigns happen, and most make it all the way.

False

Two voter decisions

Whether to vote & who to vote for

Who votes?

• Older people

• Highly educated

• People who have lived somewhere for more than 5 years

Turnout matters because…

• It changes who representatives listen to

• It changes what we get out of government

Three determining factors of who to vote for

1. Partisan loyalty

2. Issues

3. Candidate characteristics

________ is the strongest predictor of how someone will vote.

PARTY IDENTITY

Issue voting

An individual’s tendency to base the decision of which candidate or party to vote for on the candidate’s or party’s position on specific issues

___________ is often the most important issue when it comes to issue voting.

The Economy

Prospective Voting

Voting based on the future. Used by candidates when things are bad and they want to change things.

Retrospective Voting

Voting based on what has happened. Used by candidates when things are good and they want you to remember the good they brought.

As the electorate becomes ___________, the more _____ and _____ are used, and the less ________________ are used.

more educated ; issues ; party ; candidate characteristics

Campaign season is long.

We hear about it for about 2 years before the general election.

Campaigns are big.

Lots of money & people go into it

Do campaigns matter? Do they determine who wins?

Yes and no (very helpful flashcard)

Evidence that campaigns do determine who wins

1. Experiments show an effect

2. Research of overall campaign efforts show an effect

(True/False) Presidential campaigns generally cancel each other out.

True

There is ________ evidence that money affects who wins and how politicians vote on policies.

little

• Limited how much you could donate for the first time

• Set up the Federal Election Commission to oversee disclosures

• Required the creation of PACs (political action committees)

• Limits on House & Senate candidates

• Prohibited organizations from running independent campaigns for a candidate

Federal Election Campaign Act (1971)

(True/False) Most of the top candidates take advantage of FECA public funding.

False. There’s not enough money.

Buckley v Valeo

Candidates can spend as much as they want, but left the contribution limits in place to prevent bribery.

Soft money

Groups could contribute unlimited “nonfederal money” to political parties for “party building” activities

Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act of 2002

1. Banned soft money for elections

2. Banned certain types of political attack ads by interest groups in final weeks

3. Stand by your ad: “I’m ___________ and I approve this message.”

Citizens’ United v FEC (2010) general case

Citizens United wanted to air their documentary closer to election but BRCA prevented certain attack ads close to the election and FEC said it counted

MONEY IS FREE SPEECH

Citizens’ United v FEC outcomes

• 501c(4)

• Super PACS (can raise and spend unlimited amounts on campaigns but can’t talk to the candidate)

Why does incumbency matter more for Congress?

There are no term limits

Main ideas from the 2020 and 2022 Elections

2020: Covid had a significant impact

2022: Not good for Democrats, but also not great for Republicans

In terms of Congressional Campaigns, knowing _______ can make a big difference.

Who good donors are