politics - mass movement of people

1951 REFUGE CONVENTION

2024: 149 state parties, defines what a refugee is, rights + responsbility of states.

“Illegal Migrant”: UNHCR, asylum is rejected and then fails to comply with an expulsion order, or for other reasons has no legal permission to stay in a host state.

UNHCR (2024): upholds the principle of non-refoulement, which prohibits returning refugees to countries where they face serious threats.

• establishes the rights of individuals who are forced to flee their home countries due to persecution, conflict, or violence

• Refugees a form of recognitions and certain rights

• The convention defines who qualifies as a refugee and outlines the legal obligations of states to protect them

3 important components:

• Definiton of a refugee

• fair opportunity to present their case for refugee status + not returned to a country where they face serious threats to life.

• Minimum standard for the treatment of refugees (right of housing, work, education): live dignified +independent life.  

challenges to 1951 refugee convention

criteria: only protection/refugee status to those fleeing war, violence, conflict or persecution who crossed an international border

THUS, climate-related displacement not protected.

• usually occurs within countries, while Convention offers protection to those who have crossed an int border.

Short term causes of mass movement of people: armed conflict (ukraine)

Ukraine:

poland: 1.6 million refugees to whom Poland granted temporary protection, "only" less than a million of them actually remain in the country.

2025: Ukrainian refugee crises: UNHCR

• 2022: Russia full scale invasion → estimates 6.4 mil ukrainian refugees fled within europe (poland, hungary)

• 47.2 mil border crossing refugees

• disrupting public access to water, electricity, heating.

• 13% damaged house

• UNHCR: delivered 410,000 emergy shelter kits

Short term causes of mass movement of people: discrimination and persecution - Afghanistan

2021: Taliban regained control after the U.S. troop withdrawal.
Imposed harsh restrictions, especially targeting women, girls, and minorities (e.g. Hazaras).

• Girls banned from secondary and university education.

• Women prohibited from working, especially in NGOs and teaching.

• Strict rules on clothing, movement, and needing a male chaperone.

• 2022: women prohibited from working at NGOs.

Widespread human rights violations documented by the UN and Amnesty International.

• Fear of persecution, discrimination, and repression forced many to flee.

• Over 5.8 million Afghans fled the country since 2021 (mainly to Iran and Pakistan).

• 3.25 million people remain internally displaced within Afghanistan.

Short term causes of mass movement of people: economic factors - venezula

• Economic collapse due to decades of poor governance and corruption.

• Overdependence on oil & mismanagement of the oil industry, despite having the world’s largest oil reserves: 2024 oil exports costs 58% of gov budget.

• Failing production: inadequate investment and maintenance - lowest levels in decades of oil output 2024.

• spiralling cost of living + high unemployment rates.

EFFECT:

• 7.9 mil left for better life + 6.1 mil fled to neighbouring states (Colombia, peru) to escape poverty.

• face shortages of basic goods, unemployment.

Short term causes of mass movement of people: environmental challenges

• 84% of refugees and asylum seekers in 2022 fled from climate-vulnerable countries (UNHCR, 2024).

• 32.6 million internal displacements in 2022 were triggered by natural disasters.

• Nearly 60% of refugees and internally displaced people live in countries most vulnerable to climate change.

• People displaced solely by climate disasters are not recognised as refugees under the 1951 Refugee Convention.

• Regional agreements (e.g., OAU Convention, Cartagena Declaration) may cover climate-related displacement under “events seriously disturbing public order”.

DIFFERENT PERSPECTIVES OF GLOBAL ACTORS: regional grouping (European Union)

European Union is a political and economic union (27 member states): aims to promote peace, eco integration +cooperation amongst member states

Treaty of Lisbon

• int agreement that’s constitutional basis of the EU since 2009

• outlines EU policy decisions + binding requirements on member states to protect human rights. 

2023: President of the European Commission - von der Leyen launched the Pact on Migration and Asylum:

• Creating a “common system” for managing migration across the EU.

• Ensuring EU member states share responsibility for migration fairly.

• Preventing illegal migration through more coordinated and consistent policies.

DIFFERENT PERSPECTIVES OF GLOBAL ACTORS: states

States:

• EU states committed to treaty of lisbon BUT differ in managing mass movement of people due to their political leadership + national history.

Germany (humanitarian perspective):

• Views refugees + asylum seekers: vulnerable, in need of protection.

• The right to asylum is a constitutional right in Germany.

•  2025: New govt. under Friedrich Merz tightened border checks; 45% rise in rejected asylum cases in one week

Italy (Nationalistic perspective):

• prioritises national security + economic stability.

• 2023: Over 155,000 migrants arrived via Mediterranean route- PM Meloni (2022) campaigned on "yes to secure borders, no to mass migration"

• 2025: Passed stricter citizenship laws targeting diaspora and restricting immigration

• Italy received the highest number of arrivals, with over 155,000 migrants entering the country in a 12-month period (Santos, 2024).

DIFFERENT PERSPECTIVES OF GLOBAL ACTORS: Non state actors

• Maintain singular focus on the rights of refugees +asylum seekers bc no need to balance public concerns over secuirty/economic prosperity

NGO: Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF), or ‘Doctors Without Borders’, assist those migrating to Europe.

• 2024: opposes policies aimed to restrict the movement of people, declaring that ‘we firmly place ourselves in solidarity with those on the move and with those who assist them’. 

• 2015: operated/supported 8 search-and-rescue vessels in the Mediterranean, providing both rescue and medical care to migrants.

• Assists disasters and conflict, offering aid regardless of race, religion, or political beliefs.

 impact of political actors’ interests: Regional grouping (EU)

2024: announced five-year strategic agenda with 3 main priorities:

• A free and democratic

• A strong and secure

• A prosperous and competitive 

• calls for a comprehensive approach to migration + border management.

• balance security + stability for member states with commitment to international law & human rights.

• HOWEVER, increasing mass migration has pushed the EU to prioritise border protection and maintaining order.

• 2023: Hans Leijtens was appointed as Executive Director of Frontex (EU border agency).

• Leijtens pledged to restore trust in EU migration policy and ensure Frontex operations respect international law.

• This reflects ongoing tensions between humanitarian responsibilities and national security concerns.

 impact of political actors’ interests: States (Italy & germany)

prioritise sovereignty, security, economic prosperity + regional relationships, while some humanitarian.

• benefits of acception refugees = improve regional r/s + uphold int law.

Germany:

• motivated by historical responsbility, g enshrined right to asylum + become 3rd largest refugee hosting country

Italy:

• perceive refugees as eco burden + threat.

• PM giorgia meloni responded to surges of asylum seekers in 2023 by focusing on border control + eco stability:

  • blocking mediterraneon crossing & rescue ops

  • deported

  • charged asylums eekers 5000 euro to avoid detention

 impact of political actors’ interests: non state actors (MSF “doctors w/o borders)

focus on human rights issue, prioristing needs of refugees +asylum seekers:

NGOs engage in: advocay for refugee rights through social movements + offer shelter, rescue ops, med care.  

2015 (MSF): active in Mediterranean - search-and-rescue services and medical care during these missions, driven by a humanitarian commitment to prevent deaths at sea.

RESPONSES from states: regional grouping (cosmopolitan +humanitarian) EU

1. European Parliament

• Key institutions of the EU: 720 members, directly elected by EU citizens

2. 2023: Pact on migration and asylum

• calling for shared responsibility

• Lowering the number of new arrivals 

• Better dispensing of migrants among member states

• Return or resettle migrants 

3. Temporary protection directive

• EU response to Ukraine crisis; controversial bc seen prioritising.

• A residency permit for up to 3 years

• Guaranteed access to the asylum procedure

• Free movement between EU member states

• Access to employment, social welfare, medical care, education, accommodation +banking services

RESPONSES from states: states

Despite EU efforts, sovereignity empowers states to have final decision regarding policy of their borders.

Three categories:

1. resettlement:

claim for refugee status accepted to remain + build a life in another country

• most durable solution

• Less than 40 states have official resettlement programs 

• UNHCR: approx 96,000 refugees officially resettled 2023 globally (most in US - 61000.

2. Local integration

entry into states w/o necessarily verifying their claim to refugee status or offering any official resettlement scheme. 

UNHCR: in 2022 70% of refugees were ‘hosted’ by neighbouring states:

• Turkey: 3.6 million refugees

• Iran: 3.4 million

• Germany: 2.1 million 

For many refugees + asylum seekers being hosted = refugee camp, poor conditions. 

Germany local intergation = well managed

• system of “tolerated stay”: ensures asylum seekers r provided w free transport, accom, necessities while awating a decision on permanently settling.  

• MUST participate in integration courses: German language courses = difficult +wait yrs for permeneant residency.

3. Repatriation

policy that prevents migrants from entering, intending to return them to place of origin. 

Italy:

• 2023: Meloni restrict ability of NGO search and rescue op in Mediterranean sea (criminalised)

• Non-compliance results in fines of up to €50 000 + detainment of rescue ships.

RESPONSES from states: non-state actors (MSF, red cross)

Humanitarian NGOs (MSF, red cross): assist refugee/asylum seekers in search for safer place to live via this method:

• Investigating issues of concern

• Raising public awareness to express their dissatisfaction with official policies 

• Lobbying states and insitiyes of global governance

• Providing direct humanitarian aid to those in need

Processes used to address the crises of mass movement (Diplomacy & international law)

Diplomacy: Negotiations between global actors to resolve crises, through formal meetings or informal discussions.

International law: Rules and agreements accepted as binding on the international community; treaties only apply to those who ratify them.

processs to address crisis: Diplomacy

2023: EU pact on migration and asylum 

• reflect its desire to uphold int laws & respect human rights BUT also ensure the stability and security of its member states. 

Involved the European Parliament, European commission and 27 EU member statees

Three key elements:

• Lowering the no. of new arrivals

• Better dispersing of migrants among member states managed by EU agency for asylum (EUAA)

• Return or resettle migrants to states, third countries, outside the EU. 

EU-Libya-Italy: memorandum of understanding on migration (2017)

• An EU sponsored and agreement b/w italy and libya

• Libya received 42 million (euro dollars) in 2022 from EU and Italy to fund its coast guard operations that actively find migrant vessels and return them to ibya 

• EU claims that this initiative is aimed at assisting the Lbyan government’s ability to ‘save sleeves at sea’ (european commission, 2023)

• Once migrants are brought back to libya, held in detention camps run by militants. NGOs, such as Medecins Sans Frontieres, have compiled evidence of human rights in these camps. 

• 10-17 years for migrants at the camp

EU bilateral deals

• Pact on migration & asylum goes some way to managing the flow of migrants into europe, but not enough to appease the states that receive the most asylum seekers, such as those on europe’s southern boundary (greece and italy). 

• EU has been looking beyond its borders, to third countries, to reduce the no. of migrants heading to europe in the first place

• This process of shifting responsibility of the management of refugees and asylum seekers to third countries has become known as “externalisation”. 

• Deals have been made with turkey (2016), libya (2017) and Tunisia (2023)

EU-Tunisia: memorandum of understanding (2023)

• EU agreed to a memorandum of understanding regarding a strategic partnership with Tunisia. 

• Inittiually the EU pledge 150 million euro dollars to support the Tunisian economy, focusing on trader, agriculture, investment and migration. The funding was allocated to combat anti-smuggling operations, reinforcing border management and speeding up the return of asylum seekers whose applications are denied 

• Up to 1 billion euro dollars in additional loans and financial support was pledged for future years. 

International maritime laws

Non state actors often cite rhese two international maritime law as legal grounds for their serach and rescue operations: 

• The UN convention on the law of the sea (UNCLOS), which contains a legal requirement (article 98) for vessels to rescue ‘persons in distress’ at sea. 

• The international convention for the safety of life at sea (SOLAS), contains a legal requirement for contracting states to provide search and resume operations around their coast. (states must have search and rescue operations). 

 CHALLENGES TO RESOLUTION: Inability to resolve the causes of migration

main driver of migration - Discrimination: 

• experience restrictions on political + religious freedoms becoming more prevalent.

•  2024 freedom house (independent org that monitors democracy & human rights): 2023 18th consecutive yr in which global freedom declined. 

Environmental/economic challenges: 

• Challenge global efforts to minimise causes+consequences of CC. 

• Force people to flee place of residence 

• 2023 UNHCR global trends highlights the increasing no. of people living in areas exposed to higher than normal climate related hazards. 

• + refugee convention only accounts for those displaced due to conflict/discrimination NOT enviro/eco challenges

 CHALLENGES TO RESOLUTION: Difficulties enforcing international law

Refugee Convention: establishing rules, legal agreements from instutions: they dont have suffient power to effectively enforce these int law.

States breach int law:

• Contradict national interests

• Encroach upon their sovereignty or perceive law as discriminatory (pro-western bias)

The institutions created to monitor violations have limits as well: 

• The International Court of Justice (ICJ) can only adjudicate disputes b/w

  states + cannot enforce its decisions.

• The International Criminal Court (ICC) can only target individuals; it does not

  have universal support and lacks the power to make arrests.

• The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) can issue sanctions + approve

military action against states, but the veto power (ability to reject decision/proposal)of its permanent five members often prevents resolutions from being passed.

• Many states violate international law without facing consequences, showing its limitations.

• BUT: int law plays important role in creating global consensus, guiding crisis responses, and legitimising actions against uncooperative states.
  It also empowers non-state actors and citizens to hold governments accountable.

 CHALLENGES TO RESOLUTION:Conflicting national interests

require cooperation + consensus among global actors. 

• ITALY:states perceive refugees/asylum seekers pose a threat to national interests (security & eco prosperity)

• GERM: upholds their humanitarian obligations, thus improves national interests such as regional relationships + economic prosperity. 

Lack of cooperation due to conflicting interest pose challenge -> delay progress of diplomatic resolution + prevent the enforcement of agreed norms, rules or legal agreements.

ABILITY OF ACTORS TO RESPOND EFFECTIVELY: Regional grouping

Regional grouping: dependent on power + interests of its members states. 

• States aim to maintain sovereignty = only sponsor effective solution from a regional grouping that does not threaten sovereignty

• 2023: EU meeting in Spain: Hungary + Poland refused to sign a joint declaration aimed at speeding up approval of the pact on migration and asylum - bc issue with the requirement that all member states has to contribute to the redistribution of refugees within eruope. 

• 2023: DESPITE objection of H+P, the Pact on Migration and Asylum was accepted by the European Parliament and Council.

CONSEQUENCES OF DEFYING:

• EU does have SOME POWER to influence the actions of member states. EG. across a three-year period from 2021–23, the EU withheld access to common funds for both Hungary (€7 billion) and Poland (€36 billion), this time for eroding accepted democratic principles. 

ABILITY OF ACTORS TO RESPOND EFFECTIVELY: States

• UN Charter: enshrines political independence + territorial intergry of states. THUS, decide policies towards migrants in align w national interests.

• German: perceive that accepting large no. of migrants = improve regional r/s +regional standard.

  • German Chancellor Olaf Scholz supported welcoming migrants, but faced opp from the anti-immigration AfD party.

  • 2023: AfD gained ground in regional elections and polls.

  • 2024: increased seats in the European Parliament - challenging Scholz’s position + reflecting growing anti-immigration beliefs.

  • = charge asylum polcies - making it more difficult for settlement

• Democratic political systems: require support of public opinion to reatin legitmacy = obliged to reconsider policies if want to stay in power.

ABILITY OF ACTORS TO RESPOND EFFECTIVELY: Non-state actors

• no sovereignty over territory = lack power to respond effectively BUT possess eco power to fund humanitarian responses to crises.

  • EG. MSF’s search-and-rescue operations in the Mediterranean Sea.

• Many have large membership bases + global reach via social media = grant cultural power ( ability to spread their message + sympathy for people in need of protection)

• 2023, 20 non-state actors (including MSF) issued a joint statement condemning Italy’s decree that aimed to obstruct search-and-rescue operations. The joint statement called upon Italian politicians to reject the law and EU institutions to investigate the legality of the law. 

→ Submission argues that Italy breached its obligations under the european convention on human rights by cooperating with libya to enable its coast guard to intercept people at sea and take them back to libya (where they were exposed to torture +other abuses). 

→ applies pressure to actions of states + regional groupings but has not resulted in changes to policy.

The rise of populism

• Populism: emphasises the idea of “the people” in juxtaposition to “the elite”

• “The elite” = those holding positions of power in politics, economy, media. “The people” excluded from their power due to socio-eco status.

• Regarding the mass movement of people, right-wing populist politicians in particular tend to argue that political instutitons and ‘globalist’ elits have encouraged unsustainable levels of inward migration. 

This reaction against globalist elite can be seen in europe through:

• Giorgia meloni (italy): led her populist fratelli d’italia (brothers of italy) party to electoral success in 2022, based largely on an anti-immigration campaign. (Foreign Affairs, 2016)

The state remains the most powerful actor

• Since Churchill’s 1946 call for a “United States of Europe,” there’s been push for European integration (European Commission, 2021).

• Events like the Eurozone crisis (2010s) and migration crises (2015–16, 2023) have slowed integration.

• Populist leaders promote Euroscepticism, opposing EU control—especially on immigration.

• Brexit (2020) marked a major success for this movement.

• Leaders like Marine Le Pen (France, 2023) and Santiago Abascal (Spain, 2023) call for stronger national borders and sovereignty.

• In contrast, EU leaders (e.g. Ursula von der Leyen) promote unity and cooperation.

• Debate continues between supranational control vs. national sovereignty.

• The state remains the most powerful actor, as many countries reassert control over key issues.