TOPIC 7: POPULATION GROWTH

What are some of the reasons that birth rates are higher in developing countries

• Limited access to education

• Reliance on children for labour

• Cultural beliefs

• Lack of family planning services.

What are the key findings from the UN World Population Prospects Report

• World population projected to reach 8.6B by 2030 and 9.8B by 2050

• India has surpassed China as the most populous country

• Growth is concentrated in developing countries, esp. the 47 least developed (avg. 4.3 births/woman)

• 83 countries (46% of global pop.) have below-replacement fertility

• Africa will see major growth: 26 countries to at least double by 2050

• Nigeria to surpass U.S. before 2050; could pass China by 2100

What does the population pyramid look like developing countries

The population is the largest for lower aged groups then very little as you go upwards.

What are the key points about age structure and dependency in developing countries

• Youth dependency is very high

• Just under half of the population in developing counties are made up of under 15s

• In developed nations this age makes up only 17% of population.

What is the demographic transition of western Europe

Stage 1: There is high birth rates and high death rates

Stage 2: The birth rates are still high but the death begin to fall

Stage 3: Birth rates fall and death rates stabilize

What is the Malthusian trap

Malthusian Trap is based on the early ideas of the scholar and cleric
Thomas Malthus published in 1798

• Population growth outpaces the production of food then leading to famines and reduction in living standards.

• This results in a decline in population

• This decline in population will be the only way in which income per capita will rise.

What are the Criticisms of the Malthusian trap

• Overlooks technological progress: With improvements in technology and productivity the growth rate of income could potentially remain above the population growth rate.

  Countries could avoid the population trap until population growth slows down.

Is Malthus’ Population Trap theory still relevant today?

• Still seen as useful, esp. for poor countries, though no conclusive evidence links population growth to lower income

• Possible such traps occurred in historical contexts (e.g. pre-Columbian Americas)

• Some support from history: e.g. Bubonic plague (30–60% of Europe died) → income-per-capita rose

• Even if not evident today, it's important to prevent such traps from re-emerging

How does economic development affect fertility and the 'quantity vs quality' of children?

Shift from child quantity to child quality (more investment per child)

Raising children is costly (education, healthcare, time) → fewer children preferred

In high-income countries, human capital is key → fewer, more educated/skilled children

Pensions/social protection reduce need for children as old-age support (more common in developed countries)

What is the model for the demand for children

What are the two contending debates on population growth

1. Population growth is not a real problem but rather under development, resource distribution and world resource distribution

2. Population growth is a real problem like the Malthusian trap, lower economic growth and food insecurity and environmental impacts.

What are some policies to reduce fertility to tackle population growth

o More female employment, at higher wages - higher opportunity cost of children
o Less reliance on unskilled labour in production – structural transformation
o Reductions in infant mortality - better healthcare
o Development of old-age and social security plans – better social protection

Affordable prices and better information on contraceptives and family planning
o Policies that have the effect of reducing male-child preference