Espionage Final

Science,Technology & Espionage_HIST_2001_82

Relationship between intelligence community and national security policymaking

* Intelligence professionals have to understand how to explain things in simple terms so that policymakers can make decisions
* Policymakers have to understand the limitations of intelligence

Strategic warning

long-term, broad projection

Tactical warning

short-term, precise projection

Public perception of intelligence (especially from media) can…

…heighten expectations for agencies

CIA Officers

US citizens working as employees for the CIA

CIA Agents

Non-US citizens serving as informants

Intelligence

information gathered by a government or other institution to guide decisions and ==actions==" - Paul Boyer

* mainly for the purpose of national security, but can also be produced by NGOs

Espionage

"The discovering of secrets, especially political or military information of another country or the industrial information of a business" - Cambridge Dictionary

Venerability of intelligence cultures

countries' intelligence agencies often retain their original purpose even after modernization and changes

Russian Intelligence Culture

 FSB sees itself as rooted in Oprichniki (whose purpose was political stability)

US intelligence culture

* Historical aversion to permanent intelligence body; did not establish a permanent intelligence service until 1947
* Has been shaped by major intelligence failures: Pearl Harbor and 9/11
* After 9/11, reverted back to its origins (OSS) as an expeditionary agency

Scale of US vs Russian Intelligence

US has 17 agencies while Russia has 3

The nature of the intelligence workforce is…

always changing. Linguists (specific language needs can shift rapidly) and data scientists in high demand

Boundaries of intelligence

* Need for more oversight in intelligence operations from the beginning
* Theme of oversight only after controversy
* Morality and legality of an issue are not the same

HUMINT (Human Intelligence)

people on the ground gathering intelligence

SIGINT (signals intelligence)

collecting or intercepting communications

GEOINT (geospatial inteligence)

analyzing imagery

Intelligence gaps

Information that agencies want but do not have

Importance of the telegraph

First major advancement in information technology

* Integral role in the American Civil War

Factors that led to British undersea cable effort

* military and economic need to administer colonies
* Near-monopoly on gutta percha (latex-like material used to insulate undersea cables)

The British government’s undersea cable network was ____ from commercial ones due to security concerns

Independent.

* Developed by private firms and subsidized by government

British response to French and German cable developments

devised ways to intercept them

Consequences of Undersea Cables

* Black chambers (post office censorship) became obsolete
* Diplomatic pouches replaced by faster telegrams

Wireless Telegraphy

Emerged a the end of the 19th Century

* Enabled messages to be transmitted at long distance at a lower cost
* Also less secure and easier to intercept

British used wireless as a backup for undersea cables

Signals intelligence during the Russo-Japanese War

Japanese intercepts used to ambush Russian reinforcements

* British took note and decided to make major investments in signals intelligence technology

WWI brought the ____ of intelligence

institutionalization

Many of the tactical blunders from the American Civil War and Russo-Japanese War were also made in WWI because European military leaders____

 thought they were tactically and technologically superior to those countries and failed to realize __difference between changes in technology and changes in principles of strategy__

German SIGINT in WWI

Germans were able to use intercepted messaged to help score decisive victories against the Russians

* Also used false, unencrypted messages to trick Russians into moving forces away from strategic objectives

British SIGINT/Cryptanalysis in WWI

* British Admiralty established Room 40 - an office dedicated to breaking German codes and translating messages into actionable intelligence.
* Considered the birth of modern British SIGINT
* Recruited mathematicians from Oxford and Cambridge
* British had plan to strategically cut German cables; force them to use wireless telegraphy which was easier to intercept


* Germans were overconfident in their information security

Major intelligence lesson learned from WW1

good information does not guarantee good decisions; technological superiority does not equate to victory

* Leaders must be willing to listen to intelligence experts

SIGINT and the US entry into WWI

British intercepted Zimmerman telegram, but idn't want to reveal that they were spying on US communications, so they created cover story saying that they got it from a commercial telegraph in Mexico city. President Wilson faced an isolationist public, and also didn't want to reveal that the British had decoded German communications. Telegram was made public, but Americans did not believe that it was real. Zimmerman accidently confirmed its validity when talking to journalists, and the US had justification for entering WW1

SIGINT and Zeppelin defense

British were initially unprepared, but soon were able to intercept communications and learn when bombing raids would occur so they could mobilize defenses and send airplanes to shoot them down

Advances in Aviation and Photographic Technology during WWI

Airplanes and airships were being invented at the same time that camera technology was progressing rapidly

* Invention of the film camera made it possible to mount camera on airplane
* Were small enough to mount on pigeons

Wireless telegraph was also integrated into air assets so they could communicate with troops on the ground

Aerial Reconnaissance in WWI

* Before WWI, US used aerial recon in the Poncho Villa expedition
* US government contracted with Eastman Kodak to establish a training center for intelligence gathering and analysis (Considered to be the beginning of the military industrial complex)
* All sides struggled to process aerial images fast enough to actually be useful for informing tactical decisions
* Aerial combat was initially designed to deny enemy use of airspace for surveillance

As a result of success with aerial reconnaissance, American intelligence culture developed a bias toward_____

 technical sources

* Mark Stout (author and former CIA officer): American intelligence really began in WWI

After WWI, US intelligence was mostly dissolved due to 3 reasons:

1. Return to isolationist attitudes
2. Aversion to intelligence state
3. Funding

British _____ SIGINT capabilities after WWI

maintained sophisticated

National Security Act of 1947

Created DOD, CIA, US Air Force, National Security Council

* Inspired by events of WWII
* Represented major centralization of US intelligence

*The American Black Chamber* (Herbert O. Yardley)

Tell-all book about American peacetime cryptanalytic agency called the Black Chamber

* Inspired other countries to establish permanent intelligence agencies

Blitzkrieg

 rapid occupation using mechanized warfare

* Was effective in early stages at war, but Germans overreached in Soviet Union
* Demonstrated how technology can be used effectively when operating within its limits

Fourteen Part Message

series of communications sent by Japan to the US leading up to the attack on Pearl Harbor

Office of Strategic Services (OSS)

first organized effort by the United States to implement a centralized system of strategic intelligence

* British helped US establish the OSS

Formation of Anglo-American SIGINT Partnership during WWII

* British were initially reluctant to share information, but the Americans impressed them by breaking their code
* Churchill and Roosevelt recognized importance of intelligence-sharing
* overcame decades of animosity and competition; created strong and lasting intelligence partnership
* decided to continue intelligence sharing after WWII

Operation Ultra: Breaking the Enigma Machine

* Alan Turing pioneered use of the bombe (early computer) to help break code
* Intelligence from Enigma was used sparingly to not reveal that is was cracked
* A critical factor in the Allied victory, but not decisive
* German invasion of Soviet Union was the most decisive
* 10,000 people working at Bletchley Park
* Women held co-equal roles to men

The Battle of the Beams

* Germans set up series of radio navigation towers to guide bombers to targets in Great Britain during the Blitz
* British set up its own series of radio towers to jam and spoof German ones

Fusion Intelligence

combining multiple different forms of intelligence

* Became institutionalized during WWII

Manhattan Project

US and Uk collaborated on the development of a nuclear weapon

Soviet spy recruitment before WWII

Soviets were able to recruit spies (particularly from Britain) in the 1930's because there were sympathizers who were attracted to communist ideals but did not know the reality of what Stalin and the Bolsheviks were doing

* Some defected to Soviet Union and helped with the nuclear program

Alsos Mission:

 US project at the end of WWII to find out how far along the Nazis were with their nuclear program

* Discovered that the Germans were not nearly as advanced as the US was

Operation Paperclip

* When occupied Germany was divided up among the Allies, the US quickly moved Soviet scientists and engineers out of the zones that the Soviets were going to control
* Brought them back to the US to help with research
* Used for propaganda purposed to advance the narrative that US was welcoming and transparent
* In contrast, German scientists in the Soviet Union were hidden

Verona Project

effort to penetrate Soviet communications networks during WWII

* Discovered Soviet spies working in the US government

Why it was difficult for the US to gather HUMINT in the Soviet Union

* Hard target country; NKVD had tight control on population
* Attempted to airdrop people in to recruit spies but many were captured and killed

Ineffectiveness of early reconnaissance flights over the Soviet Union

some were shot down and the US refused to acknowledge that the planes and personnel belonged to the US

* So secretive that families of fallen pilots were not told the real details of their deaths 

Early U2 flights

* revealed that USSR was not as technologically advanced as thought
* SAM missiles could not reach U2s at first

U2 Affair

Pilot Gary Powers shot down and captured, convicted in sham trial, sentenced to hard labor, but ultimately exchanged in prisoner swap

* Incident led Eisenhower to suspend U2 flights

Why space reconnaissance seen as politically-dangerous issue at first

* Unsure how Russians would react
* Eisenhower was relieved when Soviets launched Sputnik and set precedent

Birth of Space Reconnaissance

* RAND Corporation first proposed use of satellite reconnaissance, but US was reluctant to set precedent
* Eisenhower was relieved when USSR made first move launching satellites
* US began using spy planes (U2) to gain imagery of key sites in Soviet Union
* After Gary Powers shootdown incident, Eisenhower suspended US flyovers
* Recognized need for less risky reconnaissance option; need for satellite development

CORONA and GRAB satellites

* First reconnaissance satellites used by US
* Faced many issues: endurance, speed, image quality
* First successful Corona mission in 1960 *imaged more than every previous spy plane combined*

Intelligence-Industrial Complex

* Lockheed recruited scientists from RAND, and contracted with Kodak to develop camera systems
* Lockheed also developed close partnership with Stanford to fund research and recruit students

National Reconnaissance Office (founded in 1961)

* Unique in that it had no analytical responsibility; just operated satellites
* Involvement of multiple branches/agencies led to inefficiency
* NRO was established __under civilian control__
* Main purpose: __advise domestic policymaking__
* US was concerned about the legitimacy of satellite operations; didn't want them to be officially military to discourage USSR from developing military response to them

advances in space reconnaissance during the Cold War created____

a need for large body of highly-skilled analysts

* Still suffered from intelligence overload - more images than workforce could handle. Led to discussions about automating intelligence analysis, which are still ongoing to this day

Manned satellites

Discarded in favor of digital (unmanned) imagery systems during Nixon Admin over budget concerns

discovery that the Soviets were developing an anti-satellite weapon

Reminder of vulnerability of satellite systems

Israeli Satellite Reconnaissance

Yom Kippur War (and unreliable intelligence partnership with US) spurred Israelis to invest in their own satellite technology

US Tracking of Soviet satellites

* Built large radar arrays across the US
* Partnered with observatory in UK
* Baker Nunn cameras (satellite tracking cameras) installed all over the world
* Gained cooperation from other countries by classifying some projects as civilian; Intelligence from "civilian" facilities aided military analysis

US’ massive global network of technical surveillance sites around the world during the Cold War

* Stonehouse: secret facility in Ethiopia used to spy on Soviet command and control facility in Crimea
* Tacksman: facility in Iran. Lost during Iranian Revolution
* Chestnut: set up in China with rare cooperation with Chinese government
* Pine Gap: joint US-Australian facility in the middle of Australia
* Met resistance from Australians because it was built on Indigenous land and represented US imperialism; could make Australian a nuclear target because of cooperation with the US

Missile Early Warning

* Distance Early Warning (DEW) Line: radar network that stretched from northern US up to Canadian arctic
* Purpose: give US 5-6 hours of warning of incoming Soviet nuclear bombers
* Complemented with network of radars around the US for ICBMs, but only gave 30 min of warning
* Later paired with satellites to reduce false positives
* Current ICBM warning time is still only 30 minute

Russian Technical Intelligence Collection Facilities

Did not have nearly as many facilities as the US

* Lourdes: SIGINT facility in Cuba
* Closed after Cold War, but reopened in 2018
* Fleet of surveillance ships

Operation Ivy Bells:

US Navy outfitted submarines to tap cables off the Kamchatka Peninsula

* Eventually compromised when NSA officer sold secrets to KG

“Bomber Gap”

Aviation Week magazine presented Soviet Union as being far ahead of the US in bomber production and capabilities

* Led to anxiety that there was a "bomber gap" between the countries; exacerbated by the fact that there was limited intelligence on the Soviet Union

Sputnik and Us Intelligence

* CIA provided accurate intelligence about the timing of the launch, but US gov did not predict psychological effect on Americans
* Sputnik was not a surprise
* US was still "winning" the missile/space race. But Eisenhower did not reveal this to the public in order to protect American intelligence sources and methods
* Us was more worried about ICBMs than satellites

Election of 1960

* JFK had much less national security experience than Nixon, but was extremely effective at creating positive optics
* JFK emphasized idea that Eisenhower-Nixon admin let the US get behind the satellite-missile race
* Ironic because Kennedy would often ask Eisenhower for advice after being elected
* After Kennedy won the election, he was briefed by intelligence officials and realized that the missile gap wasn't real
* Even though Sedef McNamara publicly denied the missile gap, public hysteria did not calm

Program 437

Missile defense capability deployed in the Pacific (Johnson Atoll) that would intercept ICBMs

* Assigned highest national defense priority by Kennedy, who was desperate to quell domestic fears
* Example of how politics can override national security assessments

Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Threat

Soviets deployed ring of ABMs to protect Moscow - posed questions about their effectiveness

* Led to concerns that US may need to produce more ICBMs to overwhelm the ABMs
* British spent lots of money developing countermeasures only to later realize that they were unnecessary

Team B Controversy

* Ford admin brought in outside experts to see if they could produce a different analysis than US intelligence agencies
* Were all hawkish and viewed Soviet Union as a very serious threat
* Experts claimed that CIA was wrong and Soviet Union was more capable than expected; CIA Director George HW Bush disagreed
* Were actually guilty of the intelligence mistakes (mainly mirror imaging) that they were accusing the CIA of
* Despite being wrong, were still influential in shaping US policy; many would go on to serve in Reagan admin

Mirror imaging

predicting that an adversary will act in the same way that you would. Considered one of the worst mistakes that can be made by intelligence experts

Backfire Debate

*  Soviets introduced new bomber called backfire
* Intelligence community successfully assessed the aircraft's capabilities, but got into conflict with military branches over what the response should be (i.e. should the US build more bombers)
* Even with advanced intelligence resources, intentions are very hard to determine

Arms control and Intelligence

Compliance is always at the center of arms control debates

* Intelligence community often tasked with verifying that treaties are being complied with
* Hard to keep adversaries in check because doing so would reveal intelligence methods

Nixon and Arms Control

* did not believe in MAD; has never been official US policy
* Wanted buildup of nuclear stockpile and defenses, but public adverse to military spending during Vietnam
* Nixon admin and Soviets agreed to limit delivery vehicles

Multiple independently-targeted reentry vehicles (MIRS)

* multiple warheads within one launch vehicle
* US saw them as a way to overcome Soviet advantage of delivery vehicles
* Nixon admin and Soviets agreed to limit delivery vehicles

SALT I (1972)

Included ABM and Interim Treaty, limited number of missile interception systems, but did not do much to actually limit the number of nuclear weapons

Limited Test Ban Treaty

agreement to restrict nuclear tests to underground

* Compliance monitored with network of sensors and satellites

"National technical means" (NTM)

word for monitoring capabilities that countries do not want to disclos

Ford and Arms Control

negotiated SALT II treaty with Brezhnev, but was met with bipartisan resistance because Ford had pardoned Nixon before he left (SALT was tied to Nixon)

* It is difficult to separate arms control from domestic political considerations

Reagan on Arms Control

* chief critic of arms control; supported by member of Team B
* pursued a more aggressive strategy against the Soviet Union – both in rhetoric and in actions

Carter and Arms Control

* Became first president to acknowledge that the US was gathering intelligence using satellites
* Tried to negotiate SALT II, but struggled to reach agreement with USSR; withdrawn from Senate consideration after Afghanistan invasion

Difficulties in SALT II negotiations revealed that___

In arms control, each county has a different security strategy

* Carter wanted ban on ASATs, but Soviets wanted cancellation of Space Shuttle

Invasion of Afghanistan

* Ended arms control negotiations
* NOT an intelligence failure; buildup of forces along border was detected prior to invasion
* Real failure was knowing Soviet intent and end-goal; which are always very had to predict
* Led to perception in the West that Soviets were "on the march"
* Invasion was actually a sign of Soviet weakness because they thought that socialist regime was so critical that they started a war to protect it
* Public perceptions do not match reality; intelligence community always has hard time penetrating decision-making circles in hard target countries

Soviet/Russian and American Intelligence cultures are___

Very different

Origins of Contemporary Russian Intelligence

 1917 Russian Revolution, even though they have undergone many reorganizations and renamings

KGB Branches

* First Chief Directorate: Foreign intelligence
* Second Chief Directorate: domestic stability in Russia and Eastern Bloc

Operation Barbarossa (1941)

Nazi invasion of the Soviet Union

* Contrary to popular belief, not an intelligence failure; Soviets knew that they were going to be attacked due to major buildup of forces on their Western Front
* Stalin did not want to hear anything about a potential attack and threatened subordinates
* Lavrentiy Beria (Stalin's intelligence chief) did not keep Stalin informed of impending invasion out of fear of retaliation
* Russians have never had a strong analytical capabilities because they did not want to challenge their authoritarian leaders

SMERSH

 officially the intelligence branch of Red Army, actually suppressed minor political dissent within the ranks

Khrushchev and the KGB

* replaced leadership with former SMERSH officials and started DeStalinization
* KGB did not like the reforms, and was ultimately involved in his ouster

AIDS Campaign

KGB launched major international disinformation campaign to spread narrative that AIDS was created by the US as a biological weapon

Yuri Andropov

GB Chairman who mentored Gorbachev and was very influential in Soviet administrations

Cuban Missile Crisis

* U2 overflights found ballistic missiles but not sure if nuclear warheads
* US blockaded Cuba
* U2 was shot down over Cuba but Kennedy decided not to go to war; turned out that shootdown was not approved by Soviet command


* Adlai Stevenson embarrassed Soviets on the floor of the UN by showing big poster of U2 imagery
* Soviets eventually agreed to move missiles out of Cuba, if the US moved missiles out of Turkey and agreed to stop trying to assassinating Castro

Operation Anadyr

Soviets moved large amount of military materiel to Cuba, including surface-to-air missiles

Soviet Missile Crisis was one of the closest times when nuclear war broke out because____

both sides displayed ambiguity which made it hard to make definitive intelligence assessments

Incidental collection

when the activity of a US person is recorded while an intelligence agency is surveilling a foreign target