CPS: Democratic Transitions

Bottom-Up Transition

revolution from below, mass protests from citizens

Why can’t we predict revolutions?

preference falsification

Collective Action Theory

individuals organizing for public good face difficulties (free-rider problem)

public good

nonexcludable and nonrivalrous (including revolutions)

free-rider problem

If no one has a strong incentive because our unique participation makes no difference - no one will participate (olson)

2 key factors determine success of public good provision

Difference between K and N

size of N

If K=N

all participate because everyone is essential to success, so success

If K<N

incentive to free ride because each individual is not necessary for success, only K individuals are, so failure

If K = N-1

everyone still believes their participation is needed, so success

Large N If large K

you dont really matter bc so many participants

Large N If small K

fails anyway bc no incentive to participate which means failure anyway

Small N

All N members are able to identify + punish free riders, so success (V transparent, high incentive to participate)

Crucial role of information for protesters (social media)

information more available; people reveal private preferences & to know the relative size of anti regime vs regime support

crucial role of information for regimes (social media)

helps governments gather information on people and protests

The 3 Fs

Fear, Friction (harder for opps to share info), Flooding (social media with false information and propaganda)

Private preference

true attitude toward a regime

Public preference

attitude you reveal to world

Preference falsification (Kuran 1991)

You never know what another person's threshold is

revolutionary threshold

protest size at which individuals are willing to publicly reveal their true preferences and participate in protest

revolutionary threshold depends on:

how much they have to lose, stability of the regime, how much they’ve been hurt

Timur Kuran (1991) Argument

many revolutions were unexpected bc of preference falsification

for him public dissent + revolution brought down eastern EU autocracies, not economic crises/longstanding dissatisfaction

Kuran crucial variable

distinction between private and public preferences misleads everyone and themselves by making sentiments private…everyone doesnt know if revolution would be successful

Top-Down Transition

revolution from above, elite starts liberalizing; Depends on how much people have to lose, perceived stability in regime

Strategic Theory of Top-Down Transitions: Initial stage

\split between soft-liners and hard-liners

(Often due to structural factors such as economic stagnation)

why do soft liners implement liberalization policies

to include opposition into regime institutions to stabilize regime

goal of top-down transitions

Goal is not to est democracy, goal is to incorporate various opposition groups into other private institutions

Basic problem in top-down

may trigger pro-democracy forces to use new freedoms to further push for change + Soft-liners have no way of knowing initially if they're gonna end up in a stabilized autocracy or a democracy they didn't want

2 options for authoritarian forces in top-down transition

Use force to repress: reverse changes with risk of further protests OR Accept demands: sometimes democratization, sometimes stabilized autocracy

Huntington's Third Wave - Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century (1991) Argument

Democratization is non linear, it comes in waves (periods of democratic expansion that are often followed by democratic backsliding)

Huntington's Three factors

Economic crises, International environment, Development of civil society

Huntington's 1 +2 waves

1st: 18th + 19th cen (US+EU), 2nd: post-WWII (esp post-colonial)

Huntington's 3rd wave

characterized by a significant number of transitions from autocracies to democracies: in latin americaand eastern europe (after collapse of soviet union)

Huntington + Economic crises

tend to affect the legitimacy of regimes, pressures both domestically and internationally

Huntington + Role of international environment

dramatically changed over the three waves

Huntington + Development of a civil society

weakened autocratic structures - spreading democratic ideas