7. Autocracies and State Repression

Key differences between past and present autocracies?

• recent autocrats appear to be less ideological

• emphasize media censorship and manipulation of information over more violent forms of repression

• media is used to convince citizens of leader’s competence (also feature in current democracies)

• observe a decrease in political killing in nondemocracies past 1980s because there are ALTERNATIVE means to avoid dissent - still same goal just less reliance on political violence

which type of regime leads to better economic outcomes?

Democracies:

• more limits of executive → better/stronger protection of property rights according to AJR paper

• Stable institutions → domestic and foreign investment

• more public goods to redistribution

Autocracies:

• less issued regarding coordination between political factions/bargaining

• stability → no electoral cycles

which regime leads to better protection of property rights?

• Not super clear — need a strong state to protect property but strong state is also a threat

• democracies have limits of executive powers so may have a tougher time fighting crime, be more prone to redistribution money

  • offering public money for certain goods for votes

• autocracies have the power to easily expropriate property with their strong executive

coordination issues that may affect growth

• infrastructure investments - what to invest? where?

• how to manage natural resources?

which regime leads to less coordination issues?

democracies → lead to coordination failures: most parties may not agree on a common path

autocracies → solve coordination failures: giving decision to a single leader/party

counterexample to autocracies having less coordination issues

venezuela oil production

How democracy may PROMOTE economic growth?

• electoral accountability: reward good leaders, punish bad leaders

• executive constraints: limit influence of bad leaders

• stable institutions: no sudden changes in basic rules/government

how democracies may HAMPER growth?

• executive constraints: limit influence of good leaders

• myopic behavior: short-term policy bias for re-election motives

• special interest politics: pork barrel expenditures (responding to certain interest groups, need to offer thing to bring people on board → inefficient expenditures

• unstable institutions: uncertainty over future electoral outcomes

what is the problem with this comparison that autocracies have less growth rates than democracies?

selection bias
controlling for other factors, Barro finds no relationship between political regime and growth

what other issues may arise when estimating the effect of democratic transition?

• by comparing the GDP right before and right after a regime change may lead to issues. lower economic growth can make people mad which changes the regime

• have to take into account the dip in GDP just pre-transition - have to control for the pre-transition dip to avoid bias results

• controlling for this = democratization has higher GDP growth

• what is this showing? shows dec in GDP per capital when regime changes

• why is it a problem when estimating the effect of democracy? need to ignore pre-transition period and look at what happens a little bit after

Autocracy vs. Democracy: Variability in Growth
most extreme (both positive and negative) levels of growth in autocracies, Why?

• executive constraints in autocracy explain this - don’t face strong institutional contraints’s but can implement radical policies very quickly (good policies vs. bad policies)

• thicker tails in distribution because they experience both explosive growth and severe recessions

Autocracies and repression. Common feature = state repression

• state repression: one-sided political violence by the gov.

Can state repression have a lasting legacy. how?

• lichter et al. studied effect of surveillance by Stasi in Est Germany

• relied on unofficial informers

• effect on interpersonal trust: higher spying → lower trust in strangers

• effect on political participation: higher spying → less political participation

Given this, what is the LR effect on economic performance?

• high spying leads to lower economic performance

  • stifles innovation - hinders free thinking

  • decreased foreign investment — weaker property rights and less economic transparency

  • lack of social trust and collaboration

Lecture 7 summary

• on average, democracies have grown slightly faster than autocracies

• controlling for other factors the evidence is mixed. Acemoglu et al. shows a positive, casual effect on growth

• growth is more volatile in autocracies than democracies