Class 3: The Role of Nuclear Weapons in international security

What does a nuclear weapon rely on?

• Enriched uranium

OR

• Reprocessed plutonium

What are the types of nuclear weapons?

1. Atomic bomb (fission-based by splitting atoms)

2. Hydrogen bomb (fusion-based by fusing atoms)

Which methods do nuclear weapons use?

1. Gun-type method

2. Implosion assembly method

Which strategic uses are there for nuclear weapons?

1. Tactical / substrategic: shorter range, battlefield use

2. Strategic: longe range, high-yield weapons for deterrence

What are the possible compositions of weapons of mass destruction?

• chemical

• biological

• radiological

• nuclear

Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

Weapons that can have a large-scale impact on people, property, or infrastructure.

What does a nuclear weapon consist of?

• a nuclear warhead

• a delivery system

• a platform

The Nuclear Triad

1. Land-based ICBM’s (intercontinental ballistic missile)

2. Air-based delivery

3. Sea-based SLBM’s (submarine-launched ballistic missile)

What are the pros and cons of intercontinental ballistic missiles?

• Pro: Warhead sink is not exposed

• Con: Stationary and non-recallable

What are the pros and cons of air-based delivery missiles?

• Pro: Flexible and recallable

• Con: Vulnerable

What are the pros and cons of sea-based submarine-launched ballistic missiles?

• Pro: Survivable

• Con: Expensive

Why do states pursue (or don’t) nuclear weapons?

1. Security: deterrence against threats

2. Domestic politics

3. Norms: states seek prestige or legitimacy

How do states proliferate their nuclear weapons?

1. Technical hedging

2. Insurance hedging

3. Hard hedging

4. Sprinting

5. Hiding

6. Sheltered Pursuit

Technical hedging

Developing nuclear tech and infrastructure without building a bomb

• e.g. Japan, South Korea

Insurance hedging

Advancing nuclear program to a point where it can quickly build a bomb if needed

• e.g. Iran

Hard hedging

Actively preparing for a bomb, developing its designs and testing components, but stops short of final assembly

• e.g. India (pre 1974), South Africa (1980s)

Sprinting

Rushing to build nuclear weapons, often in response to an immediate security threat

• e.g. Pakistan (1998), Germany (during WWII)

Hiding

Secretly developing nuclear weapons

e.g. Israel, North Korea

Sheltered Pursuit

Developing nuclear weapons under protection of a powerfull ally

• e.g. China

State of mutual assured destruction

A state where nuclear superpowers enter a state of mutual vulnerability.

Secured second-strike capability

A country's ability to retaliate after being struck with a nuclear attack, ensuring it can inflict unacceptable damage on the attacker

Stability-instability paradox

Suggests that while nuclear weapons deter large-scale war, they also increase the likelihood of smaller, more frequent conflicts between nuclear-armed states.

Nuclear doctrine: targeting

Countervalue (civilian) vs. counterforce (military)

Nuclear doctrine: operational policy

• First strike

• Launch-on-warning

• Launch-under-attack

Nuclear doctrine: declaratory policy

• Nuclear ambiguity

• No-first-use pledges

Vertical escalation

Intensification of a conflict

Horizontal escalation

Geographic expansion

Jervis’ stance in the debate on nuclear superiority

Leaders feel pressure to seek escalation dominance

Kroenig’s stance in the debate on nuclear superiority

Nuclear superior states can take higher risks in crises

What is the “Long Peace” debate?

• Post-1945 decline in great power wars

• Nuclear deterrence as explanation or is there another explanation?

Evolution of Nuclear Eras

1. First Nuclear Age (1945-1991)

   • Small number of nuclear states

   • Biploar cold war detterence

2. Second nuclear age (1991-2010s)

   • Collapse of USSR

   • Post-cold war disarmament and counter-proliferation

   • Increasing number of nuclear states

   • Fear of proliferation to ‘rogue states’ and ‘nuclear terrorism’

3. Third nuclear age (2010s - present)

   • Complex nuclear landscape

   • Rising nuclear modernization

   • Emerging nuclear competitors

   • New techs affecting deterrence

   • Erosion of arms control

   • Return of major power competition

Scenario’s of Europe’s nuclear future

1. Maintaining the current state of affairs

2. Nuclear disarmament

3. US abandonment

4. Europe Nuclear autonomy

5. Nuclear proliferation

6. A new divison of labor