Population Growth

Who is Malthus?

Thomas Malthus was a pivotal English economist famous for his theory on population growth, arguing that population growth outpaces resource growth leading to inevitable checks such as famine.

How did he believe growth differs?

Population grows geometrically (exponentially) while food supply grows arithmetically (linearly)

How did he believe population growth will be limited?

Population must be checked by misery (like famine, disease, or vice) or moral restraint.

Why are malthus ideas wrong?

Because populations have soared and less people die today of starvation than 500 years ago. Underpinned by how he underestimated the extent and which food capacity would increase by.

What elements of malthus ideas are true?

• Bad farming practices to meet the demands of higher populations have contributed to 24 billion tonnes of fertile soil being lost globally each year due to degradation.

• 800 million face chronic malnourishment and 2 billion live in food insecurity

• Climate change is largely driven by burning more fossil fuels and habitat loss to meet the demands of much higher populations.

What is happening to populations?

• Almost half of all people now live in a country or area where TFR is below the replacement rate.

• Fertility rates are expected to fall worldwide, to the point where no country is expected to have fertility of more than five births per woman by 2050.

Where is population growth occurring?

Sub-saharan Africa where it is predicted that populations are estimated to double from now to 2050.

What did Ester Boserup argue?

The Danish economist argued that population growth stimulated agricultural innovation such as the Green Revolution which led to massive increases in yields.

What may be more true than overpopulation?

• Over consumption can be argued to be a much more important issue than overpopulation.

• This is because a New York Times study for instance found 1 American consumes the same amount of resources as 32 Kenyans per year.

• Highlighting how the regions experiencing population growth tend to be LICs and NEEs so consume less although their populations are higher so limiting overconsumption may be more important.

What are modern day supporters of Malthus?

Neo malthusians

Who is a neo-malthusian?

David Attenborough is a patron of the UK charity Population Matters, which campaigns for sustainable population levels, family planning, and reduced consumption as means to address environmental challenges.

What are David Attenborough quotes around this issue?

‘Humans are the plague of the Earth’ and ‘Not a single environmental issue would be easier to solve with less people’

Who is Paul Ehrlich?

• A neo-malthusian that wrote the population bomb.

• He believed Earth’s rapid population growth would lead to mass war and famine and population growth would outpace food supplies.

What is the green revolution?

The Green Revolution was a mid-20th century transformation in agriculture, driven by scientific innovations like high-yielding crop varieties (especially wheat and rice), fertilizers, pesticides, and better irrigation, dramatically increasing food production to combat famine in developing nations, particularly Asia and Latin America.

Who was Julian Simon?

• A late 20th century American economist who believed

• Supply of resources was infinite

• Over time innovation and alternatives would prevent disasters from happening and placed a bet with ehrlich on the price of five precious metals declining he was right.

• Not the best measure though tbf.