Political Science: Midterm Exam #3

Public Opinion

What the public thinks about issues in the aggregate or what the public thinks at any given point in time.

Selective Attention

We select information that reinforces our values. Based on a desire for Cognitive Consistency. We might judge neutral information as biased as it does not align with our values.

Liberal versus Conservative Ideology

Liberal: A person who believes that the government should play an active role in supporting social and political change.

Conservative: A person who believes that social institutions, such as churches, and the free market solve problems better than governments do.

Identity Politics

An individual's opinion is also guided by his/her ideology and his/her identity.

Ambiguity/Instability of Public Opinion

1. Public Opinion is inconsistent: We want "x" but then not "x".

2. On some issues, public opinion is fairly stable over time, but generally, there is much volatility. Public Opinion can change rapidly.

3. Public Opinion is often inattentive, not meaningful or no opinion.

Condorcet's Paradox

Worst Examples would be preferences related to Education, Health Care and the Environment.

The Scale of Public Opinion Quality

1. The individuals know their preferences and the reason's why, and know why others disagree.

2. The individuals know their reasons.

3. The individuals have preferences but no reasons.

4. The individuals have no opinion.

The Origins of Public Opinion: Socialization Agents

Foundation of Preferences: preference for an individual's opinion are rooted in both self-interest and values and are shaped during his/her lifetime. It includes the family, school, social groups such as churches, all of whom pass only certain preferences and values.

Daily Prayer (Religiosity) in the U.S. versus other Western Democracies

Americans are more religious than adults in other Western Democracies.

White Evangelical Voters

- Most likely to believe in conspiracy theories. -

- They are more socially segregated than other Americans and be surrounded by people who share their politics.

- Deep and Abiding trust in Donal Trump

- Distrustful of Mainstream Media

The Political Science Literature on Public Opinion

Usually, opinions are divided between those who support the government or a proposed action and those who do not.

Roles of the Mass Media in a Democracy

1. Instrument of Citizen Control on Government.

2. Media can be an Instrument of Government Power and Control.

3. Private, for non-profit businesses (except public TV or broadcasting).

The Influence the Media has: Agenda Setting, Priming and Framing

1. Agenda Setting: The people who provide us with information have to make some choices. They must filter and select which events to cover and which to ignore.

2. Priming: The process of preparing the public to take a particular view of an event or a political actor, by calling selective attention to certain facts.

3. Framing: For events they chose to cover, the media chooses a perspective and thus influences how events are interpreted.

Polarization of Public Opinion (and examples)

Public Opinion Polls from the last decade: Growing Ideology Polarization by Political Parties on various issues. There is a decreasing trust in government and mainstream media.

Public Opinion Trends: Trust in Government and Trust in the Media

- Trust in Government: the percentage of people who state they trust the government has decreased over time.

- Trust in Media: Adults under 30 are now almost likely to trust information from social media sites than national news outlets.

Explanations of Public Opinion Trends/Decline in Trust

1. Various Historical Events.

2. Ideologically Polarizing Political Movements.

3. The Influence of the Media.

Types of Media

1. Print.

2. Broadcast.

3. Digital.

The Growing Influence of the Digital Media

The internet has changed the ways campaigns happen and the way money is raised, increasing the contribution of individuals.

Threats to Democracy from the Media

The continued trend of consolidation of media outlets into large conglomerates and media monopolies results in fewer (10) corporations dominating the news and they are linked to other businesses.

FCC and the 1996 Federal Communications Act

The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) is an Independent Agency that regulates the American Radio and Television. The 1996 Act is a broad effort to eliminate most regulations in the broadcast industry.

Changes to the Media Market / Media Ownership

Media has never been more consolidated. 6 Media Giants now control a staggering 90% of what we read, watch or listen to.

Conspiracy Theories (QAnon and related to the 2020 Election)

- QAnon: 2 in 5 Americans say that is is definitely or probably true that regardless of who is in charge of the government/other organization, there is a single group of people who secretly control events and rule together.

- 2020 Election: About 3 in 5 white Evangelicals say Joe Biden was not legitimately elected.

Political Parties

Organized groups that attempt to influence the government. Typically, their goal is to win control of the government.

Political parties’ Functions

Critical in making elections and the government work.

Two-Party System

Often referring to the United States as a nation with a “two-party system”, meaning that since the 1850s the Democratic and Republican parties have dominated the American political landscape, electing every president and nearly every member of Congress, governor and state legislator in the country.

The Democratic-Republicans

Supported free trade and a small role of the national government.

The Federalist Party

Supported protective tariffs and creation of a national bank (indicative of a strong federal government).

The Whigs

Stronger in the Northeast, favored by merchants. Favored a national bank and growth of internal party organization.

Disagreement between Jefferson and Hamilton regarding a Treasury Department and National Bank

Jefferson: Small role of the National Government.

Hamilton: Supported the creation of a National Bank and Central Government.

Abraham Lincoln

Won the Presidency in 1860; “Our government rests in public opinion”

The 1st-6th Party Systems (Main Developments)

1. Democratic-Republicans and Federalists (emerged in the 1790s)

2. Democratic-Republicans and Whig (approx. 1817-1860)

3. Democrats and Republicans (emerged during the Civil War until about 1896)

4. Democrats and Republicans/GOP (approx. 1896-1930)

5. Democrats and Republicans (1930s-1968)

6. Democrats and Republicans (1968-present)

Franklin D. Roosevelt (and the Democratic Party)

Franklin D. Roosevelt (1933-45): New Deal - expansive program for economic recovery, increase in size and scope of national government; unprecedented expansion of economic management and social welfare.

Reasons for the 2-party system in the U.S.

Political socialization and U.S. history, Media Influence and Electoral Rules.

The effect of the plurality / winner-take all electoral system on a party system

Running for election of 100 seats/districts: 60 seats go to Republican because they won 50% of the votes in 60 districts. 40 seats go to the Democrats because they won 50% of the votes in 40 districts.

Why the Green Party is not represented in Congress?

It does not necessarily win the plurality of votes in any district (too small and the 2 majority parties have shown to evolve, shown to absorb their programs and draw their supporters to mainstream).

Why Politics is like Football?

Changing the “rules of a game”, effects and influences the outcome.

Social Democratic Parties (and their values/ideological positioning)

Favor expansion of existing social/economic programs, such as health care, environmental protection and progressive causes.

Conservative Parties (and their values/ideological positioning)

Called for lower levels of taxation and of government spending and economic regulation, and for the elimination of many federal social programs.

Individuals’ party identification

1. Party identification as an ideological attachment to policy positions.

2. Party identification as a psychological attachment.

3. Party identification as reaction to political experiences.

Group basis of politics (various’ groups party preferences)

1. Race and ethnicity

2. Gender

3. Age

4. Religion

5. Class

The Gender Gap

More women identify as Democrats than men. More men identify as Republicans than women.

Dealignment

Class patterns have been less clearly recently. There has been an electoral dealignment (a loss of party affiliation). Thus, a realignment has taken place.

Why polarization of parties is a problem?

It has resulted in reduced cooperation and less bipartisanship and more gridlock in Congress, impacting the functioning of the institutions and the making of policy.

The evolution of the Democratic Party during the 6th party system

During the 6th party system, the Democratic party shifted rightward on economic policy and leftward on social policy.

The Lyndon Johnson era Great Society Program

During the Lyndon Johnson Administration (1960s), the Democratic Party was instrumental in passing civil rights legislation (Civil Rights Act) and the “Great Society Initiative”, which targeted poverty and racial segregation.

Bill Clinton (Ideological Position/Legislation Passed)

During the Bill Clinton Administration (1993-2000), the Democrats’ economic policy moved toward the right, i.e. toward the center, embracing free trade. He favored the NAFTA, social reform and financial market deregulation.

Barak Obama (Legislation Passed)

During the Barack Obama Administration (2009-2017), the Democratic party continues to support free trade liberalization/international trade agreements. But it also passed economic and environmental regulation, and later progressive causes. Obamacare provided health care reform and stepped up the role of the government.

Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

The left (liberal, aka progressive) wing of the Democratic Party. They have become more active and the new left focuses on social issues of formerly marginalized groups in society and seeks greater economic equality.

The Democratic Party and Electoral Support

Generally speaking, it includes unionized workers, upper-middle class professionals, racial and ethnic minorities and other marginalized groups and individuals supporting progressive social causes.

Factions within the Democratic Party

The Liberal (Leftist aka Progressive) Wing and the Traditional (More Centrist) Democrats.

The evolution of the Republican Party during the 6th party system

Conservatism, including fiscal conservatism (free market capitalism, deregulation, restrictions on unions, lower taxes). Social conservatism, such as an emphasis on traditional values (often link to Christianity), support for gun rights, support for school choice, school prayer and anti-abortion. Opposition to illegal immigration and affirmative action.

Richard Nixon and the Southern Strategy

Opposed to the Democratic Party civil rights and progressive values, white voters in the Southern states, begin voting for the Republican party.

Ronald Reagan (ideological position/legislation); The Conservative Revolution

Economic policy and social policy: Pro-business, cutting of taxes and of social programs; increase defense spending. Social Conservatism seeks to halt social changes of the previous decades (appeals to religious conservatives).

George H.W. Bush

Bush represents the traditional, moderate Republican. Pro-business, strong on defense, socially moderate (associated with wealthier individuals and the region of the Northeast). Bush raises taxes in light of large national debt inherited and purses a number of bipartisan deals.

The Movement Conservatives (Goals)

Origin with the 1964 Presidential Candidate Barry Goldwater, opposed Bush and the moderate conservative. They looked to undo the New Deal expansion of federal government and to move the party further to the right.

Newt Gingrich and Grover Norquist

Gingrich is a Republican Congress (Influential Speaker of the House) and Norquist is an Influential Policy Activist.

Rush Limbaugh (and the impact of Conservative Talk Radio)

Limbaugh broadcasted mistrust and grievance into the homes of tens of millions of Americans. he had an audience of 20 million people each week. (Helping create an entire ecosystem of right-wing media and changing the course of conservatism itself).

The Tea Party

Policy Goal is advocate less government spending and lowering taxes.

Donald Trump

Anti-Globalization and Anti-Free Trade thereby breaking with the mainstream traditional position of Republicans on trade in the name of national interest.

Right-Wing Populism

They are anti-establishment view, nationalistic, anti-plurality, anti-immigration, anti-globalization and more isolationist.

Liz Cheney and Mitt Romney

Examples of traditional Conservatives who no longer are influential.

The Republican Party and Electoral Support

White voters in the Southern region, Religiously Conservative groups, Upper-income earners, Working class voters, Older voters, Cuban-Americans, Far-right groups and conspiracy theorists such as QAnon.

Fractions within the Republican Party

Traditional/pro-business (fiscal) conservative, Hard-right, Right-wing Populist Republicans, Social and Religious Conservatives, Libertarians and Trump’s strong influence over the party.

Polarization of parties’ ideological positions; asymmetrical polarization

Two parties have moved apart. The Republican Party has mover further away from the center.

Cox-Richardson’s Argument

The Republican’s shift rightward has been indicative of the party becoming more ideological and less pragmatic.

The Institutions of Elections

Elections are formal institutions and electoral processes that are governed by rules and procedures that are a mix of state and federal laws, legal decisions and local administrative practices.

The U.S.: who is eligible to vote and who used to be eligible

Universal Adults Suffrage for Citizens over the age of 18.

Voting Eligibility: the 15th and 19th Admendment

The 15th Amendment extended the vote to all races and formerly enslaved people. The 19th Amendment extended the right to vote to all women.

The Australian Ballot

Voting takes place in secret. Voters choose among candidates for office using a form of ballot known as the “Australian Ballot” - a secret ballot that lists all candidates’ names on 1 ballot.

Electoral Systems

They are about how we count votes. This may sound wrong and boring, but it has profound consequences for representation.

Plurality rule/voting (single-member districts) vs. Proportional Representation (multi-member districts)

The U.S. uses the plurality electoral system. Voters in districts with approximately the same size select one member (single-member district). The candidate with the most votes (i.e. the plurality of the votes), wins. Proportional Representation (PR), is used by most democracies.

Ways in which the U.S. elections are unusual

1. There is a comparatively low voter turnout rate; with an upward trend/increase in the last several elections.

2. The elections are focused strongly on individual candidates’ characteristics.

3. U.S. elections last a long time and are expensive.

4. The U.S. has primary elections.

5. The U.S. has an electoral college, which is absolutely unique.

Primary Elections

Elections in which voters indicate a preference for a party’s candidate, or a candidate in general, in advance of an election. This could apply for an upcoming general election, a local election or by-election.

Historical phases of Presidential Elections

• 1730s-1830s (“Caucus Method”): Elites and professional politicians met and decided.

• 1830s-Progressive Era (National Convention Method): More people were involved in choosing; there was a primary and pre-election, state-by-state basis.

• 1968-Present: Primaries determined the candidates.

Unintended Consequences of Primary Elections

1. Increases the role of money in elections.

2. Reduce Voter Turnout.

3. The Media has gained more influence.

4. Gives candidates an incentive to change positions over time.

5. Gives unequal influences to some states.

Voter Participation/Turnout Rate in the U.S. (and how it compares)

U.S. (2020) had a 65.0% voter turnout compared to Sweden (2018) who had a 82.1% voter turnout. U.S. (2016) had a 55.7% voter turnout compared to Belgium (2014) who had a 87.2% voter turnout.

Election fatigue

In the U.S. elections are almost ongoing. Voters may experience election fatigue, which may explain the comparatively low voter turnout in the U.S.

The electoral college: How are votes calculated?

The Plurality System. Most states give all their electoral college to the candidate who receives the plurality of its citizens’ votes (“winner takes all”). Exceptions are Maine and Nebraska, which divide up the electors based on a formula that considered which districts were won by each candidate.

The electoral college: Why is the electoral college controversial?

The number of electors each state receives is equal to the number of representatives it has in the House and Senate combined. This means the Great Compromise (2 Senators per state, no matter the state’s size) gives smaller states disproportionate influence. Therefore, a candidate who won the most votes nationally, the popular vote, may not win the electoral college vote (and thus the presidency).

The 17th Amendment

Original Idea: Public chooses the 1. House, 2. State Governments to a. Senate and b. Each State’s Electoral College chooses the President. The Modification (17th Amendment) is the Public chooses the 1. House, 2. State Governments, 3. Senate, 4. Each State’s Electoral College’s who chooses the President.

The electoral college: The results of the 2000 and 2016 Presidential Elections

• 2000: Al Gore received 48.4% of the popular vote and George Bush 47.9%. Yet, Bush won the electoral college vote (271 Bush to 261 Gore).

• 2016: Hilary Clinton received 48% of the popular vote and Donald Trump 45.9%. Yet, Trump won the electoral college vote (274 Trump to 218 Clinton).

The Constitutional Amendment to abolish the electoral college (and its fate)/Senator Birch Bayh

Calls to adjustments, such as to move away from the plurality/”winner take all” allocation of states’ electoral college votes (as already the case in Nebraska and Maine).

Referendum, Initiative and Recall

• Referendum: A direct vote by the electorate on a proposed law that has been passed by the legislative or on a specific governmental action.

• Initiative: A process by which citizens may petition to place a policy proposal on the ballot for public vote.

• Recall: The removal of a public official by popular vote.

Makeup and changes in the electorate (as discussed in lecture)

White voters without a college degree have declined as a share of the electorate significantly since 2008: from 51.2% in 2008 to 39.5% in 2024. Still, they continue to be the largest portion of eligible voters in swing states. The Sun Belt states continue to diversify.

Suburban voters / The Silent Majority

Nixon coined the term “silent majority” for suburban voters. In recent elections:

• 2016: Suburban voters provided Trump with the necessary (if narrow) margin to win.

• 2020: Suburban voters, especially women, favored Biden.

• 2024: Suburban voters favored Harris.

Voting trends of Working-Class Voters versus Rural and Urban Voters

• Working Class voters have turned toward the Republican Party in greater numbers.

• Rural voters have been favoring Republicans.

• Urban Voters have been favoring Democrats.

Past Restrictions on Voting

1. Property Ownership: required property ownership to vote.

2. Poll taxes: After the 15th Amendment passed (allowed black men to vote), many states (all 11 Confederate) instituted poll taxes.

3. Literacy and understanding tests required to vote.

4. Unofficial: Use of violence to intimidate potential voters, such as lynching.

Examples of a Literacy Test Questions

1. Draw a line around the number or letter of this sentence.

2. Draw a line under the last word in this line.

3. Cross out the longest word in this line.

4. Draw a line around the shortest word in this line.

Current Restrictions on Voting Registration Requirements, Felon Disenfranchisement, etc.

1. Registration Requirement: Shown to reduce turnout.

2. Felon Disenfranchisement: Disproportionally affects black men.

3. Gerrymandering: employed to dilute the voting power of certain groups.

4. Voter ID Laws: Results in states having more power to regulate voting, such as the introducing of the requirement for a photo ID.

5. Reductions of the number of polling places and early voting: Resulting in longer lines.

6. Restrictions of voting by mail.

Challenges to U.S. elections: Voter Fraud

It has been extremely rare, between 0.0003% and 0.00025%.

Challenges to U.S. elections: Disinformation

Disinformation is misinformation deliberately spread to promote falsehoods. It has been used to manipulate the electorate and has the potential to disrupt the voting process, such as creating confusing or even inviting violence.

Challenges to U.S. elections: Foreign Interference

• 2020 Election: The involvement of Russia’s and Iran’s leaders - ordered their governments “to attempt to influence U.S. voters choices”.

• Leading up to the 2024 Election: Russia, China and Iran have been spreading disinformation to influence American politics.

Pluralism: How it works in theory, and the problems with pluralism in U.S. democracy in practice

James Madison argued that good government encourages multitudes of interest (factions). This prevents any one single interest from dominating the others. In theory, as long as all groups are free to organize and form interest groups, the system is arguably democratic.

Interest Groups

An organized group of individuals or organizations that makes policy-related appeals to the government. They are benefit-seeking organizations.

Lobbying

Lobbying in an effort to influence legislation. This is how pluralism plays out (it’s convenient to join a group and know it speaks on your behalf).

Interest groups and Congress

Interest groups can influence members of Congress in a variety of ways, including influencing staff, grassroots campaigns, lobbying.

Gun control laws in Congress

There is a huge difference between the views of the members of Congress and the views of the American people. The Republican Caucus is 100% opposed to gun control.

PACs and Super PACs

• PAC is the financial arm of the interest group.

• Super PAC can raise unlimited amounts of money. It cannot make campaign contributions or coordinate with candidates but it can only make independent expenditures.

The NRA

The NRA is among the most powerful special interest lobby groups with a substantial budgets. They have been able to influence single-issue pro gun voters.

The AARP

The American Association of Retired Persons, was founded in 1958. It is an influential lobbying group presenting the interests of the elderly.