Bayes Post

Bayesianism

A framework for understanding beliefs and updating them based on evidence using probabilities.

On/Off States

A binary belief system where one either believes something or does not.

Degrees of Belief

Beliefs can vary in confidence and are represented as probabilities.

Bayes’s Rule

A mathematical formula used to update probabilities based on new evidence.

Probability Calculus

A set of rules governing the manipulation of probabilities.

Negation Rule

If a statement has probability p, its negation has probability 1 - p.

Disjunction Rule

For mutually exclusive events, the probability of either event occurring is the sum of their individual probabilities.

Conjunction Rule

For independent events, the probability of both events occurring is the product of their individual probabilities.

Conditional Probability

The probability of an event occurring given that another event has occurred.

Sample Space

The complete set of all possible outcomes in a probability scenario.

Posterior Probability

The updated probability of a hypothesis after considering new evidence.

Prior Probability

The initial probability of a hypothesis before new evidence is taken into account.

Likelihood

The probability of observing the evidence given a specific hypothesis.

Inferential Model of Perception

A framework explaining how sensory information is processed to form perceptions.

Gestalt Principles

Psychological principles that describe how we organize visual elements into groups or unified wholes.

Binocular Rivalry

A phenomenon where perception alternates between two different images presented to each eye.

Neuroeconomics

An interdisciplinary field studying the intersection of neuroscience and economic decision-making.

Expected Monetary Value

The average outcome of a probabilistic scenario, calculated by weighing outcomes by their probabilities.

Utility

A measure of the satisfaction or value derived from a particular choice or outcome.

Diminishing Marginal Utility

The principle that as a person consumes more of a good, the additional satisfaction gained from each additional unit decreases.

Saccadic Eye Movements

Quick, simultaneous movements of both eyes in the same direction to shift focus.

Probability Detecting Neurons

Neurons that respond based on the likelihood of receiving a reward.

Utility Neurons

Neurons that respond based on the size of the reward.

Melioration Theory

A decision-making strategy where an individual chooses the option that appears most attractive based on recent rewards.