Brexit

Les 1

Member of the EEC (1973)

Relation UK and Europe started

Maastricht Treaty (1992)

UK a member of the EU from the start

Lisbon Treaty (2009)

Every member can choose to leave the EU, one party can decide with no permission needed from other members

1,7 Bn pounds extra contribution (2014)

The people thought money should be spent on British people instead of on the EU

Brexit referendum (2016)

was voted on to leave the EU

Brexit, official (31 Jan, 2020)

2 year period for Brexit to happen

Brexit, practical (1st Jan 2021)

1 year transition period for people to adapt before it really came into effect

Advantages of the EU

Economic & bureaucratic advantages

• Removal of trade barriers + harmonization of different state rules              
• (EU instates rules on ex. Agriculture so products can be traded between members without problems)
  • Single market allows free movement of goods, people, services, capital, …
  • Customs union: reduction of tariffs

(so: no need for taxes + tariffs reduced)

Why Brexit?

1. sovereignty

They didn’t like that the EU wanted to impose rules on them. People of the UK are very proud, they always saw themselves as separate from the mainland and more connected with the US. => They wanted to rules themselves.

2. Migration

Within the EU, people are allowed to move freely, so anyone from anywhere in Europe could move to the UK without problems. Many people from the UK resented this because people from poorer EU member countries could just move in. the wanted more control over the borders.

3. financial support for other member states

The contribution of the UK to the EU went to other members, richer states helped poorer states so they wouldn’t go bankrupt. Many people perceived this as the UK directly funneling money to poorer states and didn’t like that their money was used for that. They wanted it to be used for themselves and (for example) for the NHS.

4. ‘better’ trade deals

As a member of the EU, all trade deals that the UK had with other countries in the world were regulated by the EU. Members could use EU trade deals. Politicians in the UK argued that they could make better trade deals on their own. Now, the UK was in a weaker position because these trade deals took years to establish, so the UK market is now very weak.

5. international influence

They argued that the UK would have more international influence on their own. Before the EU was the main player on the world stage, the UK could only influence the EU, so politicians argued that they could have more influence on their own. This is arguable, can the UK as one country have more influence than the entire block of European countries.

Brexit Campaign

Led by PM David Cameron, he actually didn’t want Brexit and believed that the vote would also be against leaving the EU.

• Main reason that he lost: probrexiters did not refrain from fear mongering and big words propaganda
  • “we send the EU £350 million a year, let’s fund our NHS instead”
  • Not true, money they put in the EU was returned by a lot of services
  • Even if they left, they would have to use their own money to attain these services
  • “no border, no control”
  • Scare mongering
  • Immigration has been a good thing because it filled gaps in labour

The 2016 Referendum

51,9% “leave” 48,1% “remain”

• Big difference between Scotland and England, Wales and Northern Ireland divided (one of the reasons Scotland has been talking about independence again)
• Majority of London itself is blue, also big towns like Manchester and Liverpool; mostly rural areas that voted to leave
• Voting in referendum not obligatory: only 72,2% showed up
• Result of referendum: Cameron resigned (felt that the general public no longer supported him, had to resign) => Theresa May started Brexit negotiations
• People who campaigned most strongly for leave withdrew from the actual Brexit:
  • Liked the idea
  • Didn’t have a plan on how to leave
  • Left it to the more moderate party members who didn’t really want it to happen

Article 50

Theresa May triggered A50 on March 29, 2017  (officially declared that UK wanted to leave EU)

Trying to make “exit deal” (extremely difficult)

• Had to be approved by majority of EU states
• Had to be approved by UK parliament
• Could be vetoed by EU parliament

Theresa May’s Brexit deal

Withdrawal agreement:

• Fairly ‘soft’ Brexit: UK closely connected to EU single market
• Most members of May’s party were not in favour of ‘soft’ Brexit => vote
• Big part of May’s own party voted against her own deal

So May tried to lead Brexit through the parliament but failed

• Voted down in parliament on January 15 2019            

  (202 for vs. 432 agains

  • All parties voted against, including 1/3 of the conservatives)
  • Biggest Commons defeat in history
  • Led to ‘motion of no confidence’

No longer confident in May’s competence leading the country => resign

Boris Johnson

PM July 2019

General election December 12

• Conservative party had slim majority => not enough seats to have withdrawal approved
• Johnson organised election in hope of gaining more seats (succeeded)
• Conservative party was now in big majority => Johnson could now do what May failed to do

Withdrawal agreement approved in December

UK left the EU on January 31, 2020

11 month transition period

Brexit deal

• No tariffs or quotas  
  • (partially solved Northern Ireland border issue: Ireland has border with NI => caused problems, but this partially resolved it) goods & products could still move relatively easily through borders
• Extra checks at the borders
  • (problems for Northern Ireland)
• Businesses offering services lose automatic right of access to EU markets
• Britons need a visa for stays of +90 days in the EU
• UK withdraws from Erasmus program

Britain post Brexit

Three simultaneous acts:

1. Negotiate a new deal with EU

2. Negotiate new trade deals around the world

3. Revise own governance as EU laws no longer apply

   1. Avalanche of new registration

Possible negative consequences of Brexit

Changes in legislation → creates chaos, mainly in business

Labour shortage → due to diminishment of immigration

Trade friction → because of extra checks at the border

Economic damage → to both UK and EU (mostly UK): Gross Domestic Product has been decreasing after Brexit, not growing

Exit Scotland? → Possible independence of Scotland, wants to leave and join EU as independent nation

Reduced stability in Northern Ireland

The Northern Ireland Protocol

• No customs at border between NI and Ireland
• Sea- Customs between Great Britain and NI
• Trade with UK drops 50% in favour of Ireland
• Political crisis in Northern Ireland

Political crisis Northern Ireland

• Unionists (in favour of staying with the UK)
• Nationalists (want NI to reunite with Ireland, unhappy with customs border, more vocal about reuniting with Ireland because trades are better with Ireland)

The Windsor Framework

• to replace the Northern Ireland Protocol

• approved in march

• Trade goods divided

• green lane: northern Ireland only → minimal paperwork

• red lane: EU → EU laws apply, checks and controls