Evaluate the view that the spread of democracy, liberal economies, and the rule of law are in decline (30)

For 1: Liberal Economies are in decline

• Since 2008 financial crisis, liberal economies have been in decline, with Western governments moving away from free trade

• 2008 crash permanently damaged neoliberalism, which had spread globally after Cold War, promoted by US & IGOs as only path to prosperity

  • caused disillusionment with deregulated markets, accused of failing ordinary citizens and increasing inequality

  • US - top 1% earned 20% of national income by 2020, up from 10% in 1980.

• Govs forced to intervene and bail out banks, e.g. $700bn TARP bailout (US), showing the essential role of the state in managing economies

• Economic hardship after 2008 fuelled populist movements critical of globalisation and free markets

  • US: Trump shifted policy toward protectionism, imposing 145% tariffs on Chinese goods (Apr 2025) and a 10% tariff on other imports, while blocking WTO Appellate Body appointments, weakening free trade

• Economic success of China’s state-managed capitalism presents an alternative to free-market capitalism

• China is world’s 2nd largest economy, undermining claim that neoliberalism is the only path to growth, and expanding influence through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)

Against 1: Liberal Economies are not in decline

• Liberal economies are not in decline and remain a dominant global force; free-market principles continue to expand globally

• Major economies — US, EU, Japan — still rely on free-market capitalism, driving innovation and competition. 9 of the world’s top 10 economies by GDP are liberal, with deeply integrated supply chains and powerful multinational corporations, making a shift away from liberal capitalism unlikely

• In Asia, liberal economic growth helped lift 1.2 billion people out of extreme poverty (1990–2015), driven by global trade and foreign investment (World Bank)

• The IMF and World Bank continue to promote free-market capitalism, attaching market-oriented conditions to loans. E.g. IMF $20bn bailout to Argentina (Apr 2025) following austerity reforms under Milei (since 2023)

• The WTO supports liberal economies by promoting free trade, preventing protectionism, and resolving disputes — all major economies are members and generally follow its rules

• Overall, global trade remains resilient, though not always the sole path to growth, as shown by the 2008 crash and China’s state-led model

For 2: Rule of Law is in decline

• Rule of law has been declining due to rise of power in authoritarian regimes

• Rise of populism in Western countries has been accompanied by attacks on rule of law 

• Poland: ruling Law and Justice Party has sought to take control of the judiciary by replacing independent judges and altering the constitutional court

• US: Since Trump’s re-election in 2025 – accusations that the administrations’ mass deportation programme has included the denial of due process to large numbers of migrants, which Trump and the Republican Party are perfectly happy to accept 

• US: During the War on Terror, the US proved itself as a hypocrite as it used torture and unlawfully imprisoned ‘enemy combatants’ in Guantanamo Bay, whilst using state surveillance that undermined the privacy and civil liberties of its own citizens.

• China: Genocide against the Uyghurs

• Russia: illegal invasion of Ukraine

Against 2: Rule of Law is not in decline

• The rule of law remains strong in Europe and Asia due to judicial independence, constitutional frameworks, and accountability mechanisms that protect individual rights

• In the US, Trump challenged the 2020 election results, but courts and institutions upheld the rule of law, forcing a peaceful transfer of power. The Supreme Court has also blocked attempts to deny due process, including in cases involving deported migrants

• The rule of law is reinforced by IGOs such as the ECtHR and ICC, which uphold global legal standards and provide enforcement beyond the state

• The ECHR/ECtHR allows individuals to take cases against their governments. In Oliari and Others v. Italy (2025), the ECtHR ruled Italy violated the ECHR by failing to recognise same-sex partnerships, pressuring legal reform and demonstrating IGO enforcement of human rights

• The ICC prosecutes genocide, war crimes, and crimes against humanity. It has sought accountability for abuses, including cases linked to the Philippines’ “War on Drugs” (2015–2019), where thousands were killed without trial, showing attempts to enforce the rule of law at the international level

For 3: Democracy

• Rise of populism and authoritarianism have presented significant threats

• Decade of relatively successful democracy promotion in 1990s, the 2000s showed the difficulty of US efforts to impose democratic institutions on other countries, particularly the Middle East

• Iraq and Afghanistan: one of the stated aims was to bring democracy – this failed. Iraq descended into sectarian violence and instability. Afghanistan saw the return of the Taliban immediately after the US withdrawal in 2021 – shows fragility of democracy

• Populist leaders in democracies have weakened democratic institutions and eroded civil liberties to such an extent that they are now semi-democratic regimes.

• India: PM Narendra Modi’s gov has faced criticism for eroding democratic institutions, particularly its treatment of religious minorities, suppression of dissent and opposition media in the 2024 election

• Hungary: PM Viktor Orbán’s gov has implemented series of reforms that have given it an advantage in elections, including appointing loyalists to key judicial powers and suppressing critical media outlets and left-wing university courses

Against 3: Democracy is not in decline

• Democracy remains the most common form of governance across the world. Over 60% of nations hold regular elections

• 2022: Brazil elected Lula, a left-wing leader who prioritised environmental protection and democratic norms, marking a shift from the populist right wing policies and rhetoric of his predecessor, Jair Bolsonaro. Has worked to rebuild trust in gov institutions and address social inequality to tackle the root causes of support for Bolsonaro