Fragile vs strong states

Origins of Iraq state weakness

• after Ottoman Empire fell, plans to carve up the rest of the Middle East by UK and France

• Iraq was assigned as British territory

• Revolted in 1920

• The British put down the revolt by bombing to suppress the uprising

• Gained independence during the cold war

  • Britain kept military bases

  • coup overthrew this

• Iraqi government wages war against separatist Kurdish population in the North

Iraq under Saddam Hussein

• one of most brutal leaders in the regions history

• Under him Iraq was a “fierce state” not a strong state

• Promoted his own tribe, Al-Yakritis, played others off eachother

• developed patronage networks

• monopoly over use of force, lacked popular legitimacy

Internal and external conflict - Iraq

due to the arbitrarily drawn borders

• seperatist etho-regional elements seeking kurds and poeple aligned with Iran

• Iraq waged war agsint kurds till 2003

• 80-88 - war against Iran

• 1990 - invasion of Kuwait

US interfered fighting wars in 1990-91 and 2003

Iraq population

• historically, Shia and Suni got along well

  • Hussein put groups against eachother

• Killed 200K citizens

• Iran-Iraq war killed 1M

• US invasion killed thousands

• 50% under 19, 55-65% women

Post invasion Iraq

• US invaded Iraq to try and stop Husseina support for terrorism and building weapons of mass destruction

  • claims have now been discredited

• Under their occupation

  • Iraq became democracy

  • multiparty elections

  • people didnt regard the government as legitimate

• Extremely corrupt

• Economy stregthened

• Malnutrition, food insecurity have increased

• US trained Iraqi army defeated by ISIS due to lack of cohesion and motivation

lSIS

• weakened states, porous borders have enabled them to move freely

• religious divisions contributed to conflict

• would collect tax revenue, provide infrastructure, enforce laws

Women in Iraq

• women are now in worse conditions in many ways then they were under Hussein

• insecurity targets women disproportionately

• have very little political representation

Mexico’s “Civil war democracy”

• after independence, country was internally fragmented

• country underwent civil war from 1910-20 which were crucial years for democratization

One party democracy - Mexico

• Intitutional Revolutionary Party held power for 70 years

  • electoral autocracy more than a demcracy

  • won rigged elections

• Fusion of state and party control

  • hegemonic control at all levels

• Clientelist state, distributed resources to allies, punished opponents

• State controlled civil society

Democratic transition and electoral reform - Mexico

• Economic crisis in 80s shook PRI control and National Action Party (PAN) became more powerful

• PAN won election in 2000 ending PRI era of control

• remodled electroal institutions and eliminated the massive electoral fraud

  • replaced with independeny election body, more robust independent

Emergence of “economic civil war” - Mexico

• instead of fighting with political objectives, state fights against the hevily armed army with economic aims; DRUG CARTELS!!!

• Mexico = epicenter of the drug trade in western hemisphere

• they employ violence for private gain

• 2006 - Calderon admin declared war on drug cartels, militarizing a law-enforcement issue and weakening the rule of law in mexico

Drug War impacts in Mexico

• they have a functioning democracy with well-established institutions

• formal rights (access to justice, protection from abuses) little significance for most citizens and are reserved for the elite

Patterns of violence in Mexico

• homicide rates doubled 2006-2011

• targeting carel leaders = fragmenttaion = multiplication of decentralized armed actors

  • spreads violence further

• Pres Mieto 2012-18 neglected drug problem

• mass disappearances

Duncan - Key points

• drug trafficking organizatoins integrate into local power strutcues through “oligopolies of coercion”

• criminals exercise both violence and governance

  • redefine relationship btw coercion and political authority

• Drug violence is strategic and politica l

• governance and criminal power are deeply intertwined

• policy intervention must go beyond policing and consider decentralized political structures and informal power networks

Colombia VS Mexico - Duncan

both:

• oligopolies of coercion

  • control territories, violence to govern, collect taxes

• political power is localized

• Drug trafficking as political economy

  • alliances with local elites, run for office themselves

Colombia

• armed conflict with FARC ELN

Mexico

• more like franchieses with fragmented control and less defined territorial sovereignty