Modules 13-15: Civil War and Nuclear Weapons

Details commitment problems in civil wars and intervention challenges Explains the Responsibility to Protect doctrine Covers the nuclear revolution, deterrence concepts, second-strike capability Addresses credibility problems and strategies like brinkmanship and tripwire forces

Why do civil war settlements fail despite being mutually beneficial?

Commitment problems make it difficult for combatants to trust each other to uphold agreements, especially regarding power-sharing and disarmament.

How does the commitment problem contribute to civil wars?

Neither side can credibly commit to not exploit power advantages after disarmament or peace settlement implementation, making continued fighting seem safer.

What factors activate commitment problems in civil wars?

Ethnic polarization, resource distribution inequalities, power asymmetries, and history of violence that undermines trust between groups.

How can third-party intervention help resolve civil war commitment problems?

• providing security guarantees

• monitoring compliance

• enforcing agreements

• imposing sanctions/costs on parties that violate peace terms.

What is the moral hazard problem in intervention?

The prospect of outside intervention may encourage rebel groups to take greater risks or provoke government violence, potentially prolonging conflicts.

What is the Responsibility to Protect Doctrine? (R2P)

A principle stating the international community has a responsibility to protect civilians from genocide, war crimes, and mass atrocities when states fail to do so.

How does the Responsibility to Protect relate to sovereignty?

It modifies traditional notions of sovereignty by suggesting protection of civilians takes precedence over non-interference in domestic affairs.

How can the commitment problem explain the US Civil War?

Southern states feared future Northern dominance would threaten slavery, while the North couldn't credibly promise not to use its growing power to restrict slavery.

How have nuclear weapons influenced US foreign policy since 1945?

• created deterrence relationships,

• shaped alliance structures,

• necessitated arms control regimes

• fundamentally altered strategic thinking about war and peace

What is the nuclear revolution?

fundamental transformation of international politics caused by nuclear weapons, which made total war between nuclear powers potentially suicidal.

 What are three ways nuclear weapons differ from conventional weapons?

• greater destructive power in a shorter amount of time

• inability to defend effectively against them

• no real “Winner”

What is deterrence?

strategy of preventing enemy action by threatening punishment so severe that the expected costs outweigh any potential benefits.

What is the difference between deterrence and defense?

Defense aims to limit damage if attacked; deterrence aims to prevent attack by threatening retaliation. Nuclear weapons excel at deterrence but not defense.

What is second strike capability?

The ability to absorb a nuclear first strike and still retain enough nuclear forces to launch a devastating counterattack.

What is mutually assured destruction (MAD)?

The condition where both nuclear powers can survive a first strike and retaliate, making nuclear war irrational as it would result in both sides' destruction.

How might nuclear weapons make war less likely?

By creating clear, catastrophic consequences for aggression, nuclear weapons reduce uncertainty about war outcomes and increase incentives for peaceful resolution.

What is the credibility problem in nuclear deterrence?

 The challenge of convincing adversaries that one would actually use nuclear weapons given the catastrophic consequences, especially in extended deterrence situations.

What is extended deterrence?

Threatening nuclear retaliation to protect allies, which is less credible because it requires risking one's own destruction for another country's security.

How is credibility based on capabilities and resolve?

Capabilities demonstrate the ability to carry out threats; resolve demonstrates willingness to bear costs in carrying out threats.

What is brinkmanship?

A strategy of deliberately creating risk of uncontrollable escalation to force concessions from an opponent, exemplified by actions during the Cuban Missile Crisis.

What are tripwire forces?

Small military deployments whose purpose is to guarantee involvement in a conflict, thereby making deterrent threats more credible.

 What is "the threat that leaves something to chance"?

Schelling's concept that creating risks of unintended escalation can make deterrent threats more credible by removing complete control from leaders.

How might national missile defense affect nuclear deterrence?

 It could undermine stability by threatening second-strike capabilities, potentially triggering arms races or encouraging first strikes.

What is nuclear proliferation?

The spread of nuclear weapons to countries that previously did not possess them.

Why do states pursue nuclear weapons despite international backlash?

• security guarantees,

• domestic prestige,

• bargaining leverage

• insurance against regime change or conventional military disadvantages.