inequality and inertia L3

Glaciers worldwide are shrinking rapidly in both

length and total mass

• Records show major global glacial mass decline (2000–2023).

• Glacier loss disrupts water systems, agriculture, and ___ cycles.

flood

“The Third Pole”Refers to Himalayan/Tibetan Plateau glaciers—critical ___ source for much of ___.

water Asia

“The Third Pole” - Massive “reservoirs in the sky” that regulate ___ volumes during __ seasons.

river dry

Pakistan

• Extremely vulnerable due to dependence on ___ + intensifying seasonal ___ ___.

meltwater, monsoon rainfall

pakistan - Meltwater boosts ___ flow during the ___season (crucial for ___, drinking water).

Intensifying ___increase ___risk.

2022 floods: displacement equivalent to Canada’s entire population.

river, dry, irrigation, monsoons, flood 

India

• Similar to Pakistan—northern states depend heavily on ____ melt.

Increasing flood events over past decades due to ___ melt + stronger ___.

Himalayan, glacier monsoons

Bangladesh

• One of the world’s most climate-vulnerable countries.

• Threatened from:

  • South: ____ , ____ surges, coastal inundation.

North: increased ___ from ___ meltwater.

sea-level rise, storm, flooding, Himalayan

Bangladesh Country is very ___, densely populated, with most people living at or ___ sea level.

• Located in major ____ systems (Ganges).

• Millions affected by ice melt + monsoons + sea-level rise simultaneously.

~¼ of the country has been ____during major flood seasons

low-lying, below, mega-delta, underwater 

3. The Andes: Glacial Decline in South America

Regional Impacts

• Melting Andean ice strongly affects many countries—especially Bolivia and Peru.

• Glacial ___ threatens:

  • domestic __supply

  • ___

  • agriculture

  • ___

retreat, water, irrigation, mining 

3. The Andes: Glacial Decline in South America

Regional Impacts

• Affected by flooding and intensification of ___ and ice = flooding events 

• Long-term effect - heightened seasonality of river systems 

• Record of glacial ice decline in terms of length and mass

runoff

Bolivia: Most Drastic Effects

• High-altitude glaciers feed __

tropical lowlands 

Bolivia - most drastic effects

• No sea-level rise issues—but massive ___ impacts.

____ melt increases river volume in summer (drinking water for Bolivia, crops, mining).

freshwater, seasonal

bolivia - most drastic effects

• Lake Poopó (Bolivia’s 2nd largest lake) is now a desert due to:

  • ____ loss

  • changing __

  • water ____ (mining + irrigation)

glacial, rainfall, diversions

Positive Feedback: Black Carbon

• Forest fires produce smoke and ____ (black ____).

• Forest fires and trade wind carry soot and ___ particles → depositing soot and moisture particles on ___ → accelerates ___.

• A new, dangerous positive feedback loop.

soot carbon moisture ice melting

4. Uneven Vulnerability to Climate Impacts

____= Highest Overall Risk

• Vulnerability index considers:

  • food/agriculture

  • water

  • ___

  • ___

  • ___

• Storm surges, ___, drought, and mega-floods worsening.

asia, health, ecosystems, infrastructure, heat 

Disasters Rising

• Disasters rising in number, scale, economic cost and human mortality 

• From 1980–99 to 2000–19, major disaster events increased by ~75%.

• Hazards ___with rising temperatures.

intensifying 

disasters rising - Economically poor, low-GHG countries suffer first and worst (asia and South africa), while having the least ability to adapt.

• Exacerbated by vastly uneven adaptation capacities 

• Climate ___ - historic responsibility for reparations for loss and damage

negotiations

Key Hotspots - Arid/semi-arid tropics → ____ & __

hotter drier

Key Hotspots - SIDS, low-lying coasts, mega-deltas → extreme ___ + __ risk

storm flooding

Key Hotspots - Declining reservoirs in the sky → destabilized __ systems

water

What Is Adaptation?

Responding to impacts already ____ or ___ due to:

• ____ lag in oceans

• positive feedback loops

• long-term climate commitments

happening unavoidable thermal

Examples of Adaptation Measures/Investments in 

• ___ defenses

• Heat/___-proofing ___ grids, roads, infrastructure 

  • Upgrading aging grids (reduce fire ignition risk)

• Emergency preparedness & early ___ systems

• ___ response (firefighting, ___ capacity)

• New __ technologies

sea, storm, power, warning, diaster, evacuation, agricultural

Unequal Capacity

• High-income countries can ___ heavily.

Low-income countries lack resources → regressive ___.

invest vulnerability

Bangladesh

• Pop. ~174M

• Lives mostly in ____ delta plains (living at or close to sea-level)

low-lying

• bangladesh 

  • Pop. ~174M

  • Lives mostly in low-lying delta plains (living at or close to sea-level)

• Risks:

  • sea-level rise (intensifies ___)

  • storm surges

  • intensifying ___

  • ___ flooding from ____melt

• Adaptation needs are enormous but ___

storms, monsoons, river, HImalayan, underfunded 

netherlands

• Pop. ~18M

• ~¼ of land & ~½ of population below sea level

• World’s most sophisticated sea-defense system (very high risk of ___ )

• Can withstand 5 m storm surges

• Billions invested; continuous expansion required

coastal flooding

netherlands - 2022: Dutch report warns rising seas threaten long-term delta ___.

• Calls for prolonged and massive ____ in construction and ___

• Challenge in river details - allowing river discharge to reach the sea 

• Very aware that it needs to expand its sea level defence in relation to ____

livability, investments, maintenance, sea level rise

bangladesh vs netherlands - Key Comparison - Same hazard (____), but ___capacity radically differs.

sea level rise adaptation 

lobal Cities at Risk

• NYC: ____ Sandy (2012) & Ida (2021) each caused >$60B damage.

• Shanghai: +3°C warming → 17.5 million displaced by ____

China: world’s largest investor in ___

hurricane, rising water, sea-level defences

Mitigation & Its Link to Adaptation

Mitigation = reducing ___ warming → sets ___ for ___ 

• Determines the future ____ of adaptation challenges.

All adaptation becomes harder at 2–3°C warming vs 1.5°C.

future, parameters, adaptation, severity

Key Mitigation Actions

• ___cuts (primary)

• ____+ ecosystem ___(carbon __)

• Some propose geoengineering (Unit 5)

emission, conservation, restoration sinks 

Degree of warming = degree of risk

• ___

• Water stress

• __yields

• Power production reliability

• ____degradation

All scale with temperature rise.

heatwaves, crop, habitat 

9. Unequal Contribution of GHG Emissions

-  regressive nature of vulnerability and responsibility exacerbated by VASTLY UNEVEN CAPACITY FOR ___

adaptation

Total Annual Emissions

• -___= largest emitter since 2007

• ___ declining since 2005 but still very high

• Biggest contributor to rising global temperatures, biggest share of historic emissions  

• US was the biggest carbon emitter in the 2000s 

• Highest ___ emissions, now relatively stable emissions 

• 2018 - 15% of world total emissions 

China, US, PC

• China = 17.5% of humanity; US = 4% → ____  still far higher in US.

  • ___- much of growth in the past 20 years + projected growth (fastest ___)

  • Passed world per capita average in the mid 2000s 

  • Still only ½ of US and Canada

per capita Asia growth 

• European Union - slightly declining total emissions  

• Africa and Asia - fastest growth, but ½ per capita emissions of US and Canada 

• Africa, S Asia, SE Asia ~ ½ humanity 

  • Where __ growth comes from 

  • Per capita emissions the least

population

____ & __ = largest historic contributors

US Europe

• Cumulative emissions show:

  • ___ historically ~30% of global total

  • Canada also disproportionately high

• European Union - large share of historic emissions 

• 2023:

  • <5% of humanity (Australia, France, Canada, UK, Japan, Germany, US)

= ___% of global emissions

US, 50

Regional Trends

• Since 1990:

  • China = largest share of emissions growth

  • ___rising but still far below world per capita average

Africa + South Asia + SE Asia → ½ of ___but lowest per capita emissions

India, humanity  

Common Debate at COPs

• Historic vs. current responsibility

• Per-capita inequality

• Should exporters (China) account for emissions “embedded” in __?

exports 

10. Extreme Carbon Inequality

Income-Based Carbon Inequality

• Richest 10% emit ____× more ___ than poorest 10%.

• Richest 10% = almost ____ of global lifestyle emissions.

  • Lifestyle emissions - aggregate of all emissions associated with consumption (electricity, mining, manufacturing)

Poorest 50% = only ~___% of global lifestyle emissions.

60 per capita half 10

Growth Since 1990

• Emissions of poorest 50% fell by ~3%.

• Wealthiest 10% responsible for 46% of emissions growth.

Richest 1% emit more than poorest 66% combined.

Since the Paris Agreement (2015) - richest 1% have burned >___ the carbon of the poorest half of humanity.

2x

11. Forces Blocking Urgent Climate Action

Denial Industry & Lost Decades

• Fossil fuel lobbies + ____ networks delay policy.

• Strong presence at global climate conferences (COPS).

• Growing calls for loss & damage ___ due to ___ responsibility.

___ report - emphasis on uneven responsibility and vulnerability to first and worst impact countries

misinformation reparations historic UNDP

Summary: Global Inequality & Emissions Gaps 1990s: The “Hourglass” of Human Inequality

• World income distribution looked like an hourglass:

  • Top 20% of countries held ~____% of global wealth.

• But this was based on national averages, which hide within-country inequality.

True global inequality is much larger when looking at ___ rather than country averages.

80 individuals

2000s: Shifting Focus to the Global Top 1% and 10%

• Researchers began examining transnational elites (top 1% and 10% across all countries).

• When looking at individuals, not national averages, the hourglass widens dramatically:

The richest individuals in every country form a single global top __.

tier

Emissions Inequality

• There is a massive gap between:

  • Top _% emitters (extremely high and rising emissions)

  • Poorest half of the world (very low emissions)

• Wealthiest 10% drove 46% of global emissions growth.

Poorest 50% contributed only 6% of emissions growth.

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