MEMO 8— China’s Hybrid Strategy and Geopolitical Rise in Iran

Why is Iran crucial for China

Because Iran supplies forty four percent of Chinas crude oil imports and hosts Belt and Road Initiative projects

What is the nature of Chinas strategy in Iran

It is a hybrid strategy combining soft power and hard balancing

What soft power elements does China deploy in Iran

Cultural influence trade technology transfers and systems like Huawei 5G and BeiDou

What hard balancing tools does China use in Iran

Economic pressure sanctions evasion assistance and military cooperation

What major agreement structures long term relations between China and Iran

The 25 year cooperation agreement

How did EU Iran trade respond to renewed US sanctions

It collapsed by 76 %

How did China Iran trade respond to the same sanctions

It remained stable

What military cooperation event symbolizes hard balancing

Trilateral naval exercises between China Russia and Iran since 2019

Why does the interpretation of Chinas strategy vary

Because it depends on the theoretical lens used

What interpretation results from focusing on absolute gains

China appears to be a soft partner seeking mutual benefit

What interpretation results from focusing on relative gains

China uses asymmetric dependencies to weaken US influence

What strategic effect do Chinas economic tools create

They blur the line between soft power and hard power

What does this blending demonstrate

That non military tools can function as strategic hard balancing

What is strategic leverage in this context

The ability to gain advantage without deploying military force