Iraq (Case Study) — 04/22 (copy)

Saddam Hussein

Sunni (Despite most of Iraq being Shiite)

Mostly secular

No one considers him a faithful Muslim

Brutalized Kurds

Which groups rebelled against Saddam Hussein in 1991?

Kurds and Shia

Did President Bush promise support a rebellion against Saddam Hussein?

Implicitly stated America would supprt

Ceasefire agreement with U.S.

Allowed Iraqi army to utilize helicopters against own people

Impact rebellion has on civilians

Hundreds of thousands flee crackdown and fare catastrophic winter

UNSC actions in response to rebellion

• Declare a civilian haven in Northern Iraq

• First time in history that an internal human rights issue was declared a threat to international peace and security by UNSC — SIGNIFICANT MOMENT IN INTERNATIONAL LAW

Operation Provide Comfort

U.S. institute “no-fly” zone in North and sanctions

1996 no-fly zone established in Southern Iraq

• U.K., France, and others join

Operation Desert Fox

“Game” of cat and mouse ensue

• U.S. attacks anti-aircraft systems that come online

• Iraq appears to be hiding WMD development

1998 U.S. and British forces attack WMD sites in Iraq

With Saddam Hussein in power only other option was sanctions

Reason why Operation Desert Fox timing?

• Iraq was getting close to weapon development or to delay impeachment of President Clinton

Iraqi Sanctions

• Most stringent sanctions ever used

• Dual-use sanctions highly problematic

  • Estimate 800,000 civilian deaths as direct result of sanctions

    • WMD?

  • SH government unthreatened

Iraq War

• Iraq and western states play rounds of breaking sanctions, no-fly zones, Western bombings of military targets

  • Increasing number of western states start to break sanctions

• 9/11 — threat of SH and WMD

• 2002 — Iraq fail to fully comply with U.N.

• Iraq military crushed by small invading force

(Iraq War) 9/11 — threat of SH and WMD

• Iraq a “grave danger” to U.S. (Bush)

• Democracy promotion

(Iraq War) Iraq military crushed by small invading force

• Hard to emphasize staggering success of U.S. forces after many experts predicted “stalingrad” type fighting by Iraqi Republican Guard

  • Synchronization of armor, air, supply

• Did not lose a single tank compared to Russia losing 3,000 in Ukraine

Post-Iraq War

• U.S. disband Iraq army

  • Thousands of armed men now without pay

• Sunni tribes that used to hold power/wealth now fear for their future

• General Franks not given the military presence he needed to secure peace

• Iraq became new “Afghanistan” — training ground for thousands of fighters from across Muslim world

• Iran arm and encourage Shiite groups

• Al-Qaeda moves in

June 2004

U.S. hand sovereignty to Iraq

Iraq gets independence!

June 2005

Transitional National Assembly election

October 2005

New Constitution voted for (76% turnout)

December 2005 —First government elections held

• Elections held in context of massive insecurity, bombings, mosque attacks

  • Sunni vs. Shiite

  • Muslim Vs. Christians

  • Sunni, Shia, VS. U.S. Forces

2006

Saddam Hussein Executed

2007

British forces hand over control of Basra

U.S. “Surge”

20,000 combat troops join with Sunni groups to target Al-Qaeda and other radicals

2008 — Prime Minister Maliki does what…

• Orders crackdown on Sadr’s Mehdi army

Sadr

• Shiite Cleric

• Mehdi army leader

• Family led rebellion against British in 1920’s, father was killed by Saddam Hussein

• Claims lineage to Mohammed

• Detests colonialsm and Saddam Hussein

• Supported by Iran

Sadr in Iran…

…Called for attacks on U.S. troops

August 2010

U.S. last combat brigade leaves

But by 2011 all U.S. forces withdrawn and Sadr returns to Iraq

Unity government starts to fracture, why?

• Key Sunni leaders threatened with arrest

• Sunni parties boycott parliament

By 2013, a civil war is eminent, why?

• Sunni groups fighting against government

• Al-Qaeda fighting against Kurds and Shiites

2014 Islamic State (ISIS) emerges…

• Helps unite Kurds + Iraqi government

• Empowers Shiite paramilitary groups that the government recognizes as legitimate

• Recruited lots of Sunni and took up most of land

• Maliki increasingly excludes Sunni encouraging ISIS popularity

Operation Inherent Resolve

Targeted operations to defeat ISIS

• Over 13,000 strikes against ISIS

• U.S. special forces assisting Iraqi and Kurdish forces

• Little actual increase of U.S. forces, just permission to act

• ISIS crushed

Issue with Iraq constitution

Still requires clarity of some political bodies

• Council of representatives (Majles al-Nawwah) — parliament/congress

• Council of Union (Majlis al-lItiḥād) — operates as an upper house with regional representatives

Council of representatives (Majles al-Nawwah

Parliament/congress

Council of Union (Majlis al-lItiḥād)

Operates as an upper house with regional representatives

Iraq Government Structure

• Parliamentary democracy

• President largely ceremonial

• Prime minister heads the government

Which has more power in the Iraq government?

The president OR the prime minister?

Prime Minister

Iraq divided into governates

Thought was best way to have representation for different ethnic groups and religious groups.

Each governate gauranteed certain minimum number of seats

What is the unwritten rule in the Iraq government?

• Prime Minister a Shiite

• President Kurd

• Speaker of Majlis (parliament) Sunni

2018 Elections

• Bloc of parties led by cleric Al-Sadr wins most votes

  • But well short of majority

• Second shiite bloc declares itself the majority

2021 Elections

No clear winners

Mohammed Al-Sudani

• Prime Minister

• Electoral crisis averted with his appointment

  • But he is only elected when Sadr orders all his MP’s to resign

  • Sudani selected as a “compromise” candidate

• So the parties in power are the block that saw their support halved between 2018 and 2021

Recent Changes/Issues

• Iraqi’s increasingly dissatisfied with hope in change

• Redrawing of electoral areas favors Iran-backed parties

• Sadr currently not pushing against rivals for fear of stimulating violence

• Sunni groups may push for more independence

• Kurds wary of upsetting delicate negotiations over disputed territories

• Sunni and Kurds watching Shite discussions before knowing where to lend their support

• Al-Sudani increase (PMF) Popular Mobilization Forces to 230,000

• Iran increasing attacks in Iraqi Kurdistan, killing dozens of civilians

• Note that even though Sadr is Shiite and was given refuse in Iran, he is increasingly at odds with Iranian backed parties

Mohammed Al-Sudani

Al-Sadr