Terrorism

Kydd 2006

Terrorism frequently delivers desired response and is a form of costly signaling

Rigterink 2021

Drone hits increase number of terrorist attacks (Pakistan) U.S. policy failure

Allison 2024

Identity threat (motive, means, opportunity, organizational capacity)

Stop threat (review studies, explain danger, secure border)

Byman 2021

U.S. policy failed since policymakers kept it as “good enough”

integrate muslims into society → keep us safe

Why does terrorism take place?

1. Why does terrorism take place?

   1. Terrorism works

      1. It instills fear in the populations

      2. It causes governments to respond in ways that aid the terrorists’ cause (Kydd and Walter)

Different ways to view terrorism

1. Terrorism as costly signaling

   1. Update on ability to impose costs and degree of commitment to achieving goals (Kydd and Walter)

      1. Evidenced by terrorist rebel groups negotiating and being offered concessions

2. Terrorism as rational acting, allowing for crafting of policy

   1. Extremist ideology allows organizational advantages in achieving policy goals

3. Counterterrorism efforts difficult to anticipate

Terrorism definition

1. Two essential parts

   1. Designed to intimidate civilians in some way with violence or threat of violence

   2. Political or social motive behind terrorist act

“Rational” Terrorism

1. People see terrorists as “irrational” b/c their beliefs are so improbable and dogmatic

   1. Think of beliefs of ISIS or al-Qaeda

2. However, terrorism solves the credible threat problem

   1. While it is costly, it certainly helps achieve goals somewhat

3. Evidence

   1. Suicide terrorism

      1. Dilemma is that rebels are concerned about defection from their group

      2. Suicide bombing is a costly tactic

      3. Religious terrorist groups often provide social services (al-Qaeda provides years of seminary schooling, for example)

         1. Suicide bombing is a rational way for groups to solve this credible commitment problem. In exchange for goods/services, recruits carry out bombings

Female suicide terrorism

1. Female suicide attacks are more lethal than the ones carried out by men

   1. Women generate less suspicion

   2. They are better able to conceal explosives

   3. They are subjected to more relaxed security measures

2. Thus, it is strategic and rational for groups to use female suicide terrorists

Conclusions

• Terrorism is strategy chosen under conditions of power asymmetry

• Motivations vary across org/ind, but political change common across them

• Evidence abounds that rational actor assumption useful for analyzing terrorism

• Understanding constraints on terrorism helpful for policy design