are short term factors (campaign policies/ manifesto, party leader, party unity, state of the economy) important in determining the result of elections? which one is most important?

a03

role of the media is key

theme 1

party leader

weak 1

some elections have seen popular leaders win

• blair was relatively young, charismatic, and well-liked 1997

strong 1

some elections have seen unpopular leaders win

• YouGov approval rating for Johnson was -11% in 2019

also, perception of the leader is driven by the media

• satirical TV show ‘Spitting image’ presented John Major as dull and boring in 1979

theme 2

manifesto

weak 2

some elections have seen parties with dynamic and popular manifestos win

• thatcher directly addressed issues surrounding the winter of discontent and promised to tackle trade unions and control inflation levels → important to the public

strong 2

perception of the manifesto can be driven by the media

• 1983 Labour manifesto dubbed the “longest suicide note in history” (too liberal)

theme 3

party unity

weak 3

generally, the party with greater unity should win

• 1997 rebrand to new labour with a united front and won by a landslide → 418 seats

strong 3

this is not always the case

• 2019 conservatives were split on brexit deal and yet were still voted in

the media can help to cause and highlight splits within a party

• 2019 labour investigated for antisemitism going into the election which was widely publicised