Global Climate Change Projections

Flashcards about Global Climate Change Projections

Projections of future climate change are uncertain, primarily due to two factors: Unknown trajectory of future and Uncertain __ of the climate to these emissions.

Future climate change projections are uncertain due to the unknown trajectory of future GHG emissions and the uncertain response of the climate to these emissions.

--__ projection shows warming of 1.0-2.6°C between 2000 and 2100.

Middle-of-the-road projections show warming of 1.0-2.6°C between 2000 and 2100.

In general, wet (dry) areas will become ().

In general, wet areas will become wetter, and dry areas will become drier.

Earth’s response to __ will partly be determined by positive and negative feedback loops.

Earth's response to CO2 will partly be determined by positive and negative feedback loops, with positive feedback loops expected to outweigh the negative ones.

= amount of warming that we expect to occur when there is a change in the factors that control climate.

Climate Sensitivity is the amount of warming expected to occur with a change in climate-controlling factors, expressed as surface warming in response to a doubling of CO2 from preindustrial levels.

__ takes into account the fact that the full amount of warming in response to an increase in GHGs may not be realized for many decades, due to delayed ocean warming.

Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) takes delayed ocean warming into account and has a best estimate of 3.0°C (5.4°F).

Climate __ are compared to observations over the past 160 years to estimate climate sensitivity.

Climate models are compared to observations over the past 160 years to estimate climate sensitivity.

Another way to estimate climate __ is to study responses to changes in natural factors governing climate in previous centuries.

Studying responses to changes in natural factors governing climate in previous centuries can help estimate climate sensitivity using climate proxy data.

Volcanoes can only drive - climate change when their frequency and magnitude are sustained from one century to the next.

Volcanoes can only drive long-term climate change when their frequency and magnitude are sustained from one century to the next.

simulations match the proxy record well when the equilibrium climate sensitivity () is 2-3°C.

Model simulations match the proxy record well when the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is 2-3°C.

Ice cores show fluctuations in and have gone hand-in-hand for at least the last 650,000 years.

Ice cores show fluctuations in CO2 and temperature have gone hand-in-hand for at least the last 650,000 years.

During the Last Glacial Maximum, __ content was approximately 50% of today's levels.

During the Last Glacial Maximum, CO2 content was approximately 50% of today's levels.

data combined with paleo-temperature data provides a climate sensitivity of 2-5°C.

Proxy CO2 data combined with paleo-temperature data provides a climate sensitivity of 2-5°C.

Driving forces of consumption and land-use practices involve population growth and per-capita energy demand.

Driving forces of fossil fuel consumption and land-use practices involve population growth and per-capita energy demand.

AR5 defined 4 scenarios, called Representative (RCPs) based on total radiative forcing by 2100.

AR5 defined 4 scenarios, called Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) based on total radiative forcing by 2100.

Each RCP is created by ' __', integrating climate effects, economic, land use, demographic, and energy considerations.

Each RCP is created by 'integrated assessment models', integrating climate effects, economic, land use, demographic, and energy considerations.

The ' ' is explained by natural factors such as background volcanic activity, short-term reduction in solar output, and a series of La Nina events.

The 'Faux Pause' is explained by natural factors such as background volcanic activity, short-term reduction in solar output, and a series of La Nina events.

Projected __ shift of jet streams may cause increased winter precipitation in polar and sub-polar regions and decreased summer precipitation in many mid-latitude regions.

Projected poleward shift of jet streams may cause increased winter precipitation in polar and sub-polar regions and decreased summer precipitation in many mid-latitude regions.

Decreased precipitation and increased leads to a greater tendency for drought in many regions.

Decreased summer precipitation and increased evaporation leads to a greater tendency for drought in many regions.