inequality and inertia L2

Worst impacts occur in

arid, semi-arid tropics 

___ and south asia the largest populations at risk.

africa

• world’s largest population exposed to extreme heat.

india 

At 2°C warming → ____ & ___ of East Africa may become ____.

sahel, horn uninhabitable 

• UN FAO (2020):

  • 3 billion people face ____

Per capita freshwater down ___% since 2000.

water shortages, 20

• WRI (2023):

  • 2 billion people (¼ of humanity) live in extremely high ____ countries.

Mostly in ___ + ___.

water-stress, africa, asia

• Area with 3+ months of ___/year:

  • 1980: 5% of world

2023:30% (~⅓ of world)

drought 

Water Stress Hotspots (Lancet Countdown 2023) - ___  = most populous region under water stress

south asia

• India:

  • Longer dry spells between ___.

  • Fewer soaking rains → poorer ____ moisture.

  • Most ____-insecure people (distribution inequality).

Future: either too little water or far too much (___).

storms, soil, food, monsoons

____ & ___ of East Africa = highest % of severe __

sahel, horn, water stress

• "Sahel" = “shore” of Sahara’s “ocean of sand.”

• Historically linked by salt mining , herding, and ___ (southward).

  • Herding - moving grazing animals with the rain

agriculture

sahel- Extreme season ____ & limited ____.

• Extreme seasonality of ____

variability rainfall precipitation

____ → grassland with sparsely spaced ___/shrubs.

savannah trees

Agriculture requires ≥____ days of soil ___.

120 moisture

savannah - Plants adapted to drought: ___ roots or wide, ___ root systems.

Area regenerates quickly with rain, but droughts now exceed ___ capacity.

deep, thin, recovery

• Reduced arable land & grazing area.

• Increased ___ on drought-adapted ecosystems.

pressure

IPCC = global scientific ___ every ~5 years.

assessments

IPCC warnings since 1990s - More extreme heat waves & drought.

Reduced soil moisture & ___.

groundwater

IPCC warnings since 1990s - shorter ____ seasons, falling yields, shrinking arable land.

Reduced ___ security → worsens other health risks.

growing, food

5. Climate-Sensitive Health Inequality

Lancet (2009)

Countries sized/distributed by harm from:

• malaria

• ____

• Diarrhea

Inland flooding deaths
→ These burdens fall heavily on low-emission countries (uneven responsibility).

malnutrition

Lancet (2022) – Extreme Heat Impacts

• More ___ & lung disease.

• Worse ____ outcomes.

• ___ disruption.

• Limited ability to work, exercise, or function.

heart pregnancy sleep

Migration & Climate - at what point is climate change the most immediate driver of migration? 

• Most migration happens within countries.

• Droughts → push communities toward ____.

Climate refugees = people forced to flee due to environmental change.

starvation

• Glacier mass balance:

_____ zone (snow gain, ___ elevation).

accumulation, high 

glacier mass balance - ___ zone (___, lower elevation).

ablation melt

• Historically: accumulation ≈ ___.

• Now: Accumulation < ___→ net ____balance.

• Melt season ____→ faster loss.

melt melt negative lengthening 

Why Glaciers Matter - importance of annual ____ in glacierized drainage basins

meltwater

Glacial meltwater:

Reduces ____of river flow (keeps rivers stable year-round).

seasonality 

Water from melt water in glaciers feeds ___

rivers

glacial meltwater - Helps modulate ____ of stream/river flow 

• ____ availability in ___ (drinking + ___)

seasonality, freshwater, lowlands, irrigation

glacial meltwater - Summer melt feeds river=critical in ___ seasons/dry years.

dry

glacial meltwater - Supports:

• Drinking water

• Irrigation

• _____

• ___ flow & ecosystems

hydropower (dams), sediment

glacial meltwater - As glaciers melt, like releasing water from long-term ____ 

• Increasing annual glacial ____ up to a point (___ water) 

• Overall, ice mass levels out ___ volumes

reservoir, runoff, peak, river

Short-Term

• More meltwater → flooding risks.

  • Flood ____ with greater summer melt season

overflow

• Glacial ___ grow with warming → risk of ____ that can travel hundreds of kms.

  • Outburst floods - can rapidly unleash ___ amounts of water with ___ warming

lakes, outburst floods, catastrophic little

Long-Term

Loss of ice → less ___-season ___.

dry water

• Rivers become more seasonal (big flows in wet season, huge drops dry season).

• Reduced ___capacity in dry season.

irrigation 

Even river basins with <2% (minimal fraction of ice-cover) glacier coverage face major ___ effects.

downstream

8. “Third Pole”: Hindu Kush–Himalaya (HKH)

Human Impact

• ___ feed ____ relied on by 2 billion people.

• 250 million live in the region itself.

Rivers affected: Indus, Ganges, Yellow

glaciers rivers

Future Ice Loss

• At ___°C warming → ⅓ of HKH ice gone by 2100.

On current trajectory → ⅔ (or more) ice loss by 2100.

1.5 

Consequences

• Greater seasonality of major Asian rivers.

• Threats to irrigation (rice & wheat), drinking water, ___.

hydropower 

9. Case Study: Pakistan

Why is it so particularly vulnerable (one of the most affected countries)?

• river volumes rely heavily on meltwater during the dry season.

On top of glacial melt, worsening monsoon extremes increase ___ risk.

flood

Major Flood Events

• 2010:

  • ~2,000 deaths

  • 10 million people displaced

• 2022:

  • Temporary ____≈ size of Canada’s population

  • Regions entirely ____

displacement underwater 

10. Core Theme: Inequality

• Those who contribute least to emissions face the worst impacts:

  • Heat

  • ___

  • Water stress

  • food insecurity

  • Health impacts

  • __ pressure

drought, migration

• Lake Chad has seen a drastic reduction, now at less than 1/10 of its volume from the 1960s, partly due to climate change and agricultural water use.

  • Source of ___, some ___

freshwater, irrigation

Glacier melt is a significant concern for food and water supply, affecting around 2 billion people who depend on seasonal melt from high-elevation __ and ice.

snow

Antarctica and Greenland hold most of the world's ice (90% in Antarctica), meaning their melt will have the largest impact on ____ and freshwater availability.

sea level rise

Glaciers have a ___, meaning their annual accumulation of snow and ice in colder areas and high elevations is balanced by the annual melt in warmer areas during summer months.

net mass balance 

• Climate change has shifted this balance, with annual accumulation now being less than annual melt, leading to a ___ mass balance and ___glaciers.

  • Areas of glacial ___+ length of melt season growing

negative shrinking melt 

• Even without climate change, there is seasonal __ - accumulation and loss 

  • Roughly equal over long periods of time

variability

Annual accumulation of ____ in ___ areas/high elevations - accumulation zone + positive balance of snow and ice

precipitation colder

Annual melt in warmer areas/___ elevations in summer months - ___ balance, ___ zone

lower negative, ablation