Ch 19: Simulations

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8 Terms

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probability

predictable outcome in a large number of trials

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simulation

imitating chance by using some random process

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how simulation works

  1. establish the probability model

  2. use random digits to count outcomes of such events

  3. compute the proportion of times the event occurs out of the total number of repitions you did

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why simulation works

  1. probability is a proportion, based on many, many repetitions

  2. the more repetitions we do, the closer our computed proportion will come to the true probability

  3. simulation gives us an estimate of the probability of an event

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assumption of independence

the idea that what happens in one trial has no impact on what happens next

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<p>use a _____ diagram for event that are not independent</p>

use a _____ diagram for event that are not independent

tree

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simulation summary

way to estimate probabilities for complex events by:

  • assigning random digits to represent random outcomes

  • based on our probability model

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the probability is computed based on the _____________ of times the event occurs out of all the _____________ we simulate

proportions, repetitions