Lecture 17: Public Opinion

Core argument of Foucault's governmentality

Since the 18th century, "governmentality" has been the dominant mode of power in Europe

Population control takes place through

1. Institutions and the state

2. Norms: The ideas, accepted standards, and social categories that shape how we think

3. Self-regulation: How individuals monitor and discipline their own behavior

First dimension of power

Formal decision-making: getting someone to do something that they otherwise would not do

Second dimension of power

Setting rules of the game: deciding what can be considered

Third dimension of power

Preference shaping: influencing what people want or believe

Public opinion

• Aggregation of individuals' political views

• Uses sampling (polling a subset of people drawn from the population of interest)

Alexander Hamilton

• Distrusted the masses

• Public opinion thought to be easily corrupted

• Public was distanced from leaders through indirect elections

Thomas Jefferson

• Argued independent farmers could make sound political decisions if they had access to education and information

• Believed in universal human reason

Alexis de Tocqueville

• Believed public opinion in democracies could become oppressive

• People conforming to majority views rather than thinking independently

Walter Lippmann

Argued most citizens were too busy, uninformed, and susceptible to manipulation to truly govern themselves

Straw Polls History

• 1800s public opinion determined through straw polls

• First used in 1824 when it correctly predicted that Andrew Jackson would win over John Quincy Adams and Henry Clay

Straw Poll Definition

• An unofficial ballot designed to measure public opinion

• Considered bad science/unreliable

• Current call-in polls and some internet polls are examples of straw poll methods

Literary Digest Poll during 1936 Presidential Election

• Failed because the sample was not representative: Screened out the poor, and poorer people voted for FDR

• Selection Bias: Some people have a better/worse chance of being polled for a specific and consistent reason

George Gallup's Poll in 1936

• Used quota sampling techniques

• Non-random sampling (Representative sample): Used criteria to construct the sample so that it would resemble the population in certain ways (gender, race, education, etc.)

• Timing benefit

Gallup’s Survey in the 1948 Election

• Quota sampling failed in the Truman vs Dewey election

• Interviewer Bias: Chose more accessible, cooperative people who were disproportionately Republican

• Quotas missed key criteria that affected voting

• Demographic data from 1940 census didn't reflect post-WWII urbanization

• People could change their minds in the time before the election

Probability Sampling

Ensures randomness - should only rely on random samples instead of non-random sampling

Central Limit Theorem

When you take repeated random samples from a population, the averages of those samples will form a normal (bell curve) distribution around the true population average—even if the underlying population isn't normally distributed

Sample Size

• The number of individuals, items, or data points included in a study or experiment, selected from a larger population to represent it statistically

• More cases = more representative and lower margin of error

Margin of Error

• The range of uncertainty or variability between results and the truth

• Polls aren't meant to predict outcomes

Sampling Issues with Telephone Surveys

• Random calls from phone books

• Cell phones (if used, may double count the wealthy)

• Caller ID screening (non-responses)

Sampling Issues with Internet Surveys

• Opt-in panels, respondent driven sampling (non-probability sample)

• Digital divide: rich vs. poor, young vs. old

• Statistical methods can help correct sampling bias

Social Desirability Bias

Not telling pollsters the truth because of fear of judgment

Double-barreled questions

2 questions combined into 1 (bad questions)

Ambiguous questions

Not specific

Leading questions

Wording encourages a specific answer

Response Rate

Proportion of participants vs. number of people contacted

High refusal rates affected by

• Participants believing they won't benefit

• Their distrust of strangers

• Too many surveys or questions are too personal

Exit Polls

A poll of people leaving a polling place, asking how they voted

Focus Groups

A demographically diverse group of people assembled to participate in a guided discussion on a political campaign, product, etc.

Face-to-Face Polls

An interviewer is physically present to ask the survey questions and to assist the respondent in answering them