Belief bias reasoning

Belief bias in reasoning

• Example of believable vs unbelievable

• Believable, if fast food is taxed then childhood obesity will decrease, fast food is expensive so less children will eat it

• Unbelievable, if fast food is taxed then childhood obesity will increase, this statement may make you question if it’s true

• The person has to deal with conflict between logical validity and believability and overcome intuitive responses

• As a conditional statement and major premise is provided your own beliefs shouldn’t really contribute to this

Belief bias effect (Frosch and Simms, 2015)

• Students were given conditional statements some of them believable some of them unbelievable and to make 4 different inferences

• Participants found it much easier to make a valid modus ponens if they believed the conditional statement

• Main effect of believability: F(1,65)=26, p< .001

• Main effect of inference: F(3,195)= 7.35, p< .001

• Easier to make valid inferences from believable statements

• Easier to not make invalid inferences from unbelievable statements

What is syllogistic reasoning

• First devised by aristotle and believed to be the basis of rational thought, another form of deductive reasoning

• A syllogism consists of 2 premises and a conclusion

• Eg:

• Premise 1, all children are obedient

• Premise 2, all girl guides are children

• Therefore we can conclude all girl guides are obedient

• Syllogisms contain any of these quantifies, all, no, some, some…not

VALID believable and unbelievable belief biased reasoning

• Believable:

• No police dogs are vicious, some highly trained dogs are vicious

• Therefore some highly trained dogs are not police dogs

• Unbelievable:

• No nutritional things are inexpensive

• Therefore some vitamin tablets are not nutritional

INVALID believable and unbelievable belief biased reasoning

• Believable:

• No addictive things are inexpensive, some cigarettes are inexpensive

• Therefore some addictive things are not cigarettes

• Unbelievable:

• No millionaires are hard workers, some rich people are hard workers

• Therefore some millionaires are not rich people

Structure of belief bias syllogisms

• Endorsement rates (the conclusion should follow logically)

• The valid believable and the invalid unbelievable should be high and invalid unbelievable should be low

• Valid believable should be high because conclusions are valid

• Invalid believable should be low because conclusions are invalid

• Belief bias because VU < VB and IB > IU

What does belief index measure

• Measures the difference in acceptance of believe and unbelievable conclusions

• The bigger the index, the more the belief bias is observed

How can we calculate belief bias

VB + IB - VU- IU

What is the belief bias effect

• In both conditional and syllogistic reasoning the believability of the conclusion exerts a strong influence on endorsement rates

• Believable conclusions make it easier to make valid inferences which enhances reasoning

• Believable conclusions make it harder to reject invalid inferences which hinders reasoning

• Unbelievable conclusions make it harder to make valid inference because belief and logic are in conflict which hinders reasoning

• Unbelievable conclusions make it easier to reject invalid inference because belief and logic are not in conflict which enhances reasoning

What is dual systems/process theories of thinking

• (Kahneman, 2003)

• Dual process theories propose our brains have two systems

• System 1, Fast heuristic processing allowing us to make quick decisions which rely on our intuition

• Automatic, fast, effortless system

• System 2, Slow analytic processing or slower deliberate inferences, when we stop to think and look back. When we don’t know the answer straight away

• Lazy , slow system

Principles of heuristic-analytic theory (Evans. 2006)

• Singularity, only a single mental model considered at a time

• Relevance, consider most relevant (plausible or probable) mental model based on prior knowledge or context

• Satisficing, when you think that something is good enough, the current mental model is considered by analytic system and accepted it adequate

Feeling of rightness

• What we feel when we come about solving a problem, specifically a belief bias task

• The feeling or rightness is a monitoring system that evaluates output of intuitive and heuristic processing system (assessed by feeling of rightness ratings)

• Participants are asked to make a quick response then rate their ‘feelings of rightness’ before making a more deliberated response

• They were allowed to reevaluate their answer and decide if they want to stick to their answer or change it

• Low feelings of rightness are associated with longer analytic processing

• Responses are quicker when feeling of rightness is high

• (Thompson et al, 2011)

Evidence of early conflict detection

• Gave participants belief bias reasoning tasks and discovered greater physiological arousal as measured by skin conductance, during conflict problems

• When there was conflict between logically validity and believability below conscious level there was sensitivity

• Participants reacted very quickly

• (De Neys et al 2010)

Strengths of heuristic analytic theory

• Widely applicable within cognitive research

• Evidence for reasoning is based on singularity, relevance and satisficing principles

• Evidence for distinguishing between heuristic and analytical processes is strong

• Accounts for individual differences based on the extent to which they use analytical processes

Limitations of heuristic analytic theory

• Distinction between heuristic and analytic processing is too neat

• Implicit/explicit and heuristic/analytic may actually represent two independent dimensions

• Not clear how individuals decide on which process to use

• Assumes logic is conscious

• Fails to lay out how the heuristic and analytic processes interact

Relationship between intuitive and deliberate systems

• (De Neys, 2012)

• Serial model:

• When presented with a problem, your intuitive system kicks in (system 1)

• According to dual process theory, if a conflict between believability and logical validity is detected, the deliberate system will kick in

• Parallel model (what Deneys suggested)

• Suggests that intuitive thinking and deliberate thinking are parallel to eachother and kick in from the beginning together

• Logical intuition model:

• Suggests that you have your intuitive heuristics thinking and intuitive logical thinking first followed by deliberate thinking

• Heuristics is gut feeling ( mental shortcut)