rpos final review

covers slide set 13-25

independent variable

a variable whose variation does not depend on another variable; does the explaining.

dependent variable

a variable whose variation depends on another; represents the outcome.

positive correlation

when the level of one variable is high, so is the other variable.

negative correlation

when the level of one variable is high, the other one is low.

does correlation mean causation?

no

quantative (large n)

Statitistical analysis of a large number of cases.

qualitative (small n)

In-depth analysis of a small number of cases.

aspects of quantitative analysis

• allows us to determine whether there is a statistical significant relationships between two variables.

• large number of cases involved gives us more confidence in our conclusions.

• you can rule out certain alternative explanations by including control variables.

• it will be hard to know individual cases in detail because of the large amount of data.

aspects of qualitative analysis

• allows us to study a small number of cases in detail.

• can examine the processes involved and ask why a change in one variable is likely to lead to a change in another.

• small number of cases makes it difficult to know if your findings apply to other cases.

tragedy of the commons

refers to a situation where individuals, acting independently, deplete a shared resource, leading to depletion. It highlights the conflict between individual self-interest and the common good. (overfishing, overgrazing, ozone depletion, water pollution, climate change)

climate change: problem

• most of our economy depends on fossil fuels.

• the accumulation of CO2 is trapping heat in the atmosphere, causing global temperatures to rise and making the ocean more acidic.

• as global temperatures rise, we can expect very significant changes to the earth’s climate.

positive feedback loop in terms of climate change

refers to a process that amplifies the initial change and leads to further warming. one example is the ice-albedo feedback: as global temperatures rise, ice and snow melt, reducing the Earth's albedo (reflectivity) and causing more sunlight to be absorbed, which in turn leads to further warming. these positive feedback loops contribute to the ongoing climate change.

tipping points

you can make a small change with relatively little impact, but once you reach a certain point, the tipping point, additional changes can result in irreversible changes to the system.

6 consequences of climate change

1. more extreme weather events

2. sea level rises

3. threats to food production

4. threats to human health

5. migration crisis

6. security threats

the politics of climate change

1. people don’t see it as a serious threat

2. tragedy of he commons problem

3. developing countries feel like they are being asked to fix a problem developed countries caused

4. making the switch to alternative energy sources is going to be pretty disruptive in the short term

5. fossil fuel industry is politically powerful

6. there used to be uncertainty about the science

how is dealing with climate change a collective problem? (free rider problem)

most states want to make progress, but they worry about making costly efforts to reduce GHGs only to have other countries enjoying the benefits without doing their fair share

1992 Framework Convention (UNFCCC)

• adopted at the Rio Earth Summit in 1992

• creates a framework for further negotiations

• acknowledges that climate is a problem

• every country in the world ratified it

• a commitment for states to monitor their GHG emissions, but doesn’t include any specific requirements

• the establishment of the Conference of Parties (COP) to meet every year

1997 Kyoto Protocol

• the UNs first attempt to impose legally-binding emissions limits, but was only for developed countries

• first commitment period: 2008-2012, second: 2013-2020

• different targets are specific to each country

• no real enforcement mechanism

• allows for emissions trading schemes among annex countries

• “clean development mechanism” encourages investment in developing countries while allowing offsets for annex countries

problems of Kyoto Protocol

• the US didn’t ratify

• no obligations for developing countries

• the goals for annex countries weren’t ambitious enough

• many countries failed to meet even modest obligations

• 5 year commitment period creates incentives to peruse short term goals

• CDM creates incentives to simply shift GHG production abroad

2015 Paris Agreement

• no enforcement mechanism

• near universal commitment

• green climate fund helps finance mitigation and adaptation projects in developing countries

• enables emissions trading schemes and a successor to the CDM

top 7 biggest emitters of GHG

1. China

2. USA

3. India

4. EU27

5. Indonesia

6. Russian Federation

7. Brazil

8. Intl transport

Aklin and Mildenberger (2020)

the free rider problem makes theoretical sense, but Aklin argue that it’s not an accurate description. instead, they make the argument that focuses on the disruptive politics within individual states:

• switching from fossil fuels to clean sources of energy creates “economic winners and losers”

• in a state where the winners are powerful, pro-climate policies are likely to be enacted and vice versa

• we often see political leaders using other countries failures to act as an excuse for their own failure to act

mitigation strategy

in order to stop climate change getting totally out of control, we need to dramatically reduce our emissions of GHG

decarbonization

refers to the process of reducing or eliminating carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from various sources. the goal is to mitigate climate change and reduce the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

net zero

the CO2 being put into the atmosphere will be balanced out by the CO2 that the planet can absorb.

carbon pricing

1. impose a tax on CO2 emissions (carbon tax).

2. set a limit on how much total CO2 a company can emit. the companies can then trade these ‘licenses to pollute’ with each other, aka ‘cap and trade’ or emission trading.

why do richer countries tend to set more ambitious climate goals than poorer countries?

• economic development

they have more money, citizens want to prioritize environmental concerns, countries have more access to new technology

• democracy

democratic countries are more likely to adopt ambitious climate targets

• dependence on fossil fuels

some countries are dependent on their natural resources (Saudi Arabia gets 99.8% of it’s energy from oil)

• political ideologies

countries that are controlled by left wing parties are more likely to adopt ambitious climate policies

• political institutions

democracies with systems of proportional representation make it easier for small parties to win seats in legislature. having more veto points makes it harder to pass laws

• others

how much of a threat climate change poses to small countries, whether the country has experienced recent extreme weather events, strength of environmental movements in different countries, what neighbor’s countries are doing, and membership in IGOs like the EU.

NGO

(Non-Governmental Organization) international organizations made up of non-governmental members.

INGO

international NGOs that have activities in more than one state. they are usually non-profit.

what do INGOs do?

advocacy (amnesty Intl.,Greenpeace)

provide aid (MSF, Oxfam)

Clubs and professional associations (Rotary Intl., Intl. Studies Association)

religious organizations (the Catholic Church)

Keck and Sikkink (1998)

key insights is that INGOs form international networks called Transnational Advocacy Networks (TAN). this allows INGOs to advocate more effectively for their cause. (e.g FEMNET)

4 ways in which TANs act

information politics

symbolic politics

leverage politics

accountability politics

what is the boomerang model

refers to a process where domestic advocacy groups use international networks and institutions to put pressure on their own governments. This pressure "boomerangs" back to the domestic arena, influencing policy change.

are INGOs and TANs important to the study of intl relations?

realist: no

liberals and neoliberal: usually not

constructivist: yes

MNC (multinational corporations)

private companies that operate in more than one country. (walmart, nike)

how are MNCs similar to states?

• they can be very economically powerful

• their actions affect the lives of millions of people

• they have evaders and systems of governance

• they develop policies for their companies

how are MNCs different from states?

• they don’t control their own territory

• they don’t have armies

• they don’t have control over people’s lives

carbon offsets

a company is paying someone else to take certain amount of CO2 out of the atmosphere on their behalf, like planting trees.

greenwashing

making misleading or unsubstantiated claims about the environmental benefits of a product, service, or company.

ways to measure democracy

• the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem project) (0-1)

• the Polity Project (-10 to +10)

• Freedom House

• the Economist Intelligence Unit Democracy Index

3 branches of government

legislative: laws are written, 435 house members

judicial: interprets the constitution, includes the supreme court

executive: approving and carrying out laws, pres, vice-pres, cabinet members, federal govt agencies

how are members of congress elected?

house: up for re-election every 2 years. no term limits.

senate: one third is up for election every 2 years, so they serve staggering 6 year terms. no term limits.

parliamentary systems

- the head of state is the monarch, his role is ceremonial

- the real power lies in the house of parliament - house of commons

- the citizens only elect members of the legislative branch, the leader of the party who commands the House of Commons becomes the Prime Minister

- general election held every 5 years, but if a ‘motion of no confidence’ is passed by a simple majority, an election will be called the following month

- the govt can choose to call an election any time it wants, with a 2/3 majority

how are laws passed in the UK?

1. new piece of legislation has to be approved by a majority of the MPs in the House of Commons

2. the House of Lords can request amendments and delay passage of bills, but ultimately the Lord’s can’t stop it

3. the King gives their assent to the bill

branches of the UK government

legislative: 650 members are up for re-election via single member districts whenever a general election is called, house of lords is an unelected body, no term limits in either chamber

judicial: no elections for judges, they are appointed by an independent commission

executive: govt is formed by the winners of the majority in the house of commons. it is formed out of the legislature

first past the post voting system

aka plurality, the candidate who wins the most votes (even if not a majority) wins

majority voting system

leader only gets elected if they win 50% or more. if that doesn’t happen, a runoff election will be held.

ranked choice voting system

voters rank candidates in order of preference. in each round of counting, the candidate with the fewest first-choice votes is eliminated, and their votes are redistributed to the remaining candidates based on the voters' next preferences.

proportional representation voting system

the parties represented in the legislature more closely match their share of popular vote.

democratic backsliding

the gradual weakening of democratic institutions within a country that was previously considered to be democratic. it involves a decline in the quality of democracy, such as restrictions on civil liberties, attacks on the rule of law, manipulation of elections, and concentration of power in the hands of a few. it can lead to the consolidation of authoritarianism and the erosion of democratic values and principles.

Levitsky and Ziblatt (2018) How Democracies Die

most democratic breakdowns do not occur as a result of a coup detat. instead, they tend to involve freely-elected leaders gradually dismantling democratic institutions and norms.

mutual toleration

you view your political opponents as legitimate rivals as opposed to illegitimate actors who threaten the state.

forbearance

you don’t try to win by any means necessary, you respect traditions and norms that limit your party’s power.

modernization theory

predicts that once states’ economies begin to develop, they’ll be more likely to transition to democracy.

Inglehart and Welzel (2009)

they suggest that economic development leads to values changing along two dimensions: 1) from traditional to secular rational values and 2) from survival to self expression values.