Reasoning & Decision Making

Reasoning

It is the process of evaluating information to assess a fact or perceive a relationship, either deductively (from principles) or inductively (from evidence).

Decision Making

Judgment is the process of evaluating choices or opportunities with the intent of taking action.

Premises

A statement that is assumed to be true and from which a conclusion can be drawn.

Categorical Syllogism

The statements of the premises begin typically with “all”, “none” or “some” and the conclusion starts with, “therefore” or “hence”

Normative Approach

It is based and formal logic. It focuses on how people should listen if they are thinking logically and rationally.

Descriptive Approach

It is concerned with estimating people’s ability of judging validity and explaining judging errors.

Conditional Syllogism

Just like the categorical one, it also has to premises and the conclusion. In difference the first premise has a form “If…then”. Syllogism like this one are common and every day life.

Modus Ponens

Latin for “the way that affirms”

Modus Tollens

Latin for “the way that denies”

Wason Selection Task

A famous experiment created by a psychologist named Peter Wason, which shows that people make more errors in the process of reasoning, if it is concerned with abstract items than if it involves real world items (Wason, 1966).

Mental Model Theory

proposed by Phillip Johnson-Laird (1999), states that the people a reason by mentally imagining possible situations based on given premises, and a conclusion is valid only if it is true in all those imagine scenarios.

Hypothetical & Rule-Based Reasoning

It is the ability to think through “what if” situations by imagining different outcomes based in certain assumptions

Dual-Process Theory

It is used to explain how people make judgments and decisions, especially in situations involving risk, logic or normal reasoning. It helps illustrate why we often make errors and reasoning, and our biases creep into our thinking. humans used to distinct systems for thinking system one is for fast, automatic, intuitive and emotional. It operates quickly and with little effort, relying on heuristics (mental shortcuts) system two as the slow, deliberate, analytical, and effortful. It is used for complex reasoning and critical thinking.

Common Reasoning Biases

Our systematic errors in thinking that affect our judgments and decisions. Deviations from logical or irrational, thinking, often caused by cognitive shortcuts, emotional influence, or social factors. They lead us to draw incorrect conclusions, even when we believe we’re thinking clearly.

Framework

refers to the mental structure or model that people use to process information and make decisions.

Rationality

Refers to the degree to which a decision or thought process is logical, consistent, and goal-directed. It is not simply about making perfect choices, but about how closely humans thinking aligns with normative standard (like logic or probability).

Normative Rationality

Bounded Rationality

TWO MAIN TYPES OF RATIONALITY

Normative Rationality

assumes people make decisions logically, and with complete information (e.g., Expected Utility Theory)

Bounded Rationality

acknowledge the human thinking is limited by cognitive constraints (like memory time or bias), leading to simplified, often decisions (e.g., Heuristics, Prospect Theory).

Expected Utility Theory (EUT)

it is considered a normative model, meaning it prescribes how people should make decisions if they were fully rational. It assumes that individuals weigh the possible outcomes of decisions by their probabilities and utilities (subjective value), and choose the option with the highest expected utility..

Prospect Theory

it is a descriptive model that explains how people actually make decisions under risk and uncertainty. Unlike EUT, this theory accounts for psychological biases..

Structured Approaches

Are formal methods used to clarify organize and improve the quality of complex decisions. This can be especially helpful and reducing the impact of cognitive biases and making the decision process transparent.

Decision Tree

Visual representations mapping out potential decisions, chances outcomes, and associated risk or reward step-by-step.

Criteria Matrices (Decision Matrices)

Tables that allow decision-makers to weigh and compare alternatives based on explicit criteria or values.

1. Define the decision context

2. Clarify objectives

3. Develop alternatives

4. Estimate consequences

5. Evaluate trade-offs

6. Make a decision and implement

7. Monitor and revise as necessar

Stages in Structured Decision Making

Analytical (Explicit) Decision-Making

It is a deliberate, logical process that involves breaking down complex problems into smaller components and systematically evaluating each option based and explicit criteria and available data.

Intuitive (Implicit) Decision-Making

it is when you make a choice quickly based on your feelings or experience without thinking too much about all the details. It’s like a gut feeling or an immediate guess that comes from what you already know.

Motivated Justification

Refers to the cognitive and emotional processes individuals attempt to validate or explain their thoughts actions beliefs, our decisions to themselves and others.

Motivated Reasoning

It is a tendency to interpret information in a biased way, influenced more by personal motivation, emotions, or goals than by objective evidence

Executive Control & Metacognition

Refer to high-level cognitive processes that enable individuals to plan monitor and regulator thoughts and actions. These processes are essential for goal-directed behavior and rational decision-making.

Metacognitive

Is thinking about thinking. It is defined as the awareness and understanding of one’s own thought processes. Allow people to be aware of their own learning and memory and improve them

Executive Control

It is the set of neurocognitive processes that help with impulse control, attention, working memory and cognitive flexibility. These skills are associated with a prefrontal cortex as well as other areas of the brain.

Working Memory

Holding and manipulating information, inhibitory control — the ability to override automatic or impulsive responses this means individuals can reflect and choose more reasoned actions over instinctual ones, especially in complex situations.