Unit 7 - Simulation Cartes | Quizlet

What is simulation?

Using overall patterns to predict what happens when a random element is involved

How is simulation useful? (1)

It provides a simplified imitation of a real world situation to study its real world characteristics

How is simulation useful? (2)

We gain understanding of the situation to help make improvements

What is Monte Carlo Simulation?

A model used to predict the probability of different outcomes when different variables are present

What is a look-up table?

Plotting the probabilities, coming up with cumulative probabilities, then plotting upper & lower bounds based on this (there may be separate ones for income & expenditure)

What is a simulated table?

Plotting a random number next to each time frame, then coming up with outcomes based on this

How to come up with a random number (in a range of numbers) with cell referencing

=RANDBETWEEN(0,99)

What do you write in the simulated column?

The simulated group that that random group comes under (based on its range)

How to use cell referencing in the simulated column

=LOOKUP(the cell with the random number,the range of cells of the lower limits (with dollar signs),the group sizes (with dollar signs))

How to calculate probability

Frequency / Total frequencies

How to calculate probability with cell referencing

Frequency / Total frequencies (with dollar signs)

How to calculate cumulative probability

Add the current probability to the previous cumulative probability - the last one should be 1 (or 100%)

What should the first lower limit begin with?

0

What do you write in each lower limit?

The last cumulative probability

What do you write in each upper limit?

1 less than the cumulative probability

What should the last upper limit begin with?

99

How do we use simulated tables to help with pricing?

Use a simulated table with separate columns for cost & income

How do we calculate profit?

Income - Cost

How to calculate average profit per timeframe numerically

Add each profit together, then divide it by how many timeframes there are

How to calculate average profit per timeframe using cell referencing

=AVERAGE(A1:A3)

How to calculate average profit per ... (overall)

Total Profit / Number of ...

How to calculate the proportion of timeframes with a profit/loss numerically

Find out all the months with a profit/loss, then divide that by how many there are (you may want to change this to a percentage)

How to calculate the proportion of timeframes with a profit/loss using cell referencing

(cell with profit in)/COUNTA(A1:A3)

How to easily find out losses using Excel

Use conditional formatting

How to count how many profit cells using cell referencing

=COUNTIF(A1:A3,">0")

How to count how many loss cells using cell referencing

=COUNTIF(A1:A3,"<0")

How to use simulation to deal with queuing problems

Once again, find out the probabilities using a look-up table, then come up with examples using the random numbers using a simulated table, then create a queuing simulation table

How is simulation useful for helping deal with queuing problems?

If there is a long wait time in many cases, it may be useful to set up more facilities or find a way to make the process quicker

What does a queuing simulation table consist of?

Plot the inter-arrival times based on the random numbers (from their boundaries), the arrival time, the service time, the end time, then the wait time

How do we find the arrival time?

The first arrival time is the first inter-arrival time, then add the end time to get the next arrival time

How do we find the end time?

Add the service time onto the start time (you will be given the service time)

How do we find the wait time?

The start time - The arrival time

What do simulation charts for pricing include?

A column for the timeframe, then random numbers for the income, then random numbers for the cost, then calculating the profit/loss

How do we calculate profit/loss

Income - Cost

What do simulation charts for inter-arrival times include?

A column for the customer, then the frequency, probability, cumulative probability, upper limit, then lower limit

How do we find out customer inter-arrival times?

Finding out which limit they lie in, then plotting it on the graph

How do you find out the first customer arrival time?

Find out which boundary the customer lies in

How do you find out the next customer arrival times?

Find out which boundary the customer lies in, then add it onto the previous customer arrival time (it is cumulative)

How do you find out the service start time?

The previous customer end time

What happens to the service start time if the customer arrival time is later?

You must start as soon as the customers arrive, then there is no wait time for this customer.

How do you find out the service time?

You are given this - it is often the same for each customer, or it can be simulated using another set of random numbers

How do you find out the service end time?

Service start time + Service time

How do you find out the customer wait time?

Service start time - Customer arrival time

How to calculate average waiting time using cell referencing

=AVERAGE(A1:A3)