Topic 5, Lesson 3: Why did John Major win the 1992 General Election?

NB: The 1992 Election result was a shock. Everyone (including the conservatives) expected Labour to win because they had a 20% lead in the opinion polls.

Topic 5, Lesson 3: Why did John Major win the 1992 General Election?

Why the Conservatives Won

Why Labour Lost

John Major’s Honeymoon Period

The End of the Poll Tax

Victory in the First Gulf War

The West win the Cold War

The Saatchi and Saatchi Advertising Campaign

The Emergence of the Liberal Democrats

The Sun Newspaper

Labour’s 20% lead in the opinion polls

Continuing economic recession

Labour’s promised tax rises

The Sheffield Rally (1992)

Topic 5, Lesson 3: Why did John Major win the 1992 General Election?

The 1992 Election Results

Conservatives - John Major - 41.9% of the votes - 336 MPs

Labour - Neil Kinnock - 34.4% of the votes - 271 MPs

Liberal-Democrats - Paddy Ashdown - 17.8% of the votes - 20 MPs

Topic 5, Lesson 3: Why did John Major win the 1992 General Election?

John Major’s Honeymoon Period

A Honeymoon period in politics is where a new leader gives their party a fresh image despite that party being in power for a long time. E.g. John Major’s bland personality compared to Thatcher’s abrasive one.

Major was a fresh face of the Conservative Party.

Rather dull in his politics but this appealed to the public after Thatcher’s fiery personality.

Spitting Image depicted Major’s dull personality by painting his puppet grey in the television show.

Ideologically, Major was a Thatcherite in economics.

Unlike Thatcher, Major was pro-Europe.

Topic 5, Lesson 3: Why did John Major win the 1992 General Election?

Labour’s Opinion Poll Lead

Why the Conservatives thought they would lose the 1992 General Election:

[1] Unpopularity of the Poll Tax

[2] Issue of Europe was dividing the Conservative Party

[3] By April 1990, Labour had a 20% point of lead over the Conservatives.

Therefore, many (including the Conservatives) assumed Labour would win the 1992 General Election.

However, the opinion polls were wrong:

• people did not want to admit they were going to vote Conservative

• flawed method of collecting opinion polls - the interviewees were unrepresentative of the whole population.

Topic 5, Lesson 3: Why did John Major win the 1992 General Election?

Victory in the First Gulf War (1991)

16th January 1991 - The First Gulf War begins

Essentially a US war but Britain provided the 2nd largest contingent of troops (approximately 50,000)

John Major’s first foreign affairs crisis

Quick and successful

Saatchi and Saatchi created poster commending victory in the First Gulf War.

Topic 5, Lesson 3: Why did John Major win the 1992 General Election?

End of the Poll Tax

The Poll tax was abandoned in 1991.

It was replaced by ‘council tax’.

Boost polls for Major.

Labour made repeated calls for a general election to be held during 1991 but John Major resisted these calls to allow time for anger over the Poll tax to subside.

Topic 5, Lesson 3: Why did John Major win the 1992 General Election?

Continued Economic Recession

By 1992, the recession had still not ended.

Unemployment now topped 2.5 million.

Labour was still not trusted with the economy → legacy of Callaghan’s government (1978-1979 Winter of Discontent)

Topic 5, Lesson 3: Why did John Major win the 1992 General Election?

Right-Wing Media Support (The Sun)

The Sun was the biggest selling newspaper.

On the day of the 1992 General Election, The Sun’s headline was “If Kinnock wins today, will the last person to leave Britain please turn the lights out”.

The day after the 1992 General Election, The Sun’s headline read: “It’s The Sun Wot Won It”.

The Sun’s support for the Conservatives was instrumental in the 1992 General Election.

Following this election, Labour would attempt to appease Murdoch in future elections.