availability and repsentativeness

Heuristic

A 'quick and easy' rule used to make judgments under conditions of uncertainty, time limitations, and cognitive limitations.

Cognitive illusions / heuristics and biases tradition

A JDM tradition, associated with Tversky and Kahneman, focusing on when heuristics lead to systematic errors.

Fast-and-frugal / adaptive toolbox tradition

A JDM tradition, associated with Gigerenzer and colleagues, focusing on when heuristics lead to the best balance between maximizing accuracy and minimizing costs like cognitive processing and time.

Rationality Wars

A debate concerning the extent to which humans use heuristics, what they are, whether they help or hinder, and which normative theories/tasks our evolved minds should be good at.

Dual-process theory (Kahneman)

Classifies heuristics as Type 1 (fast, intuitive) processes that may be overridden by Type 2 (slow, deliberate) processes.

Unified Model (Unimodel) (Gigerenzer)

A criticism of dual-process theories, proposing that 'Type 1' and 'Type 2' processes rely on common principles and differ mainly in their level of consciousness.

Independence (Probability)

Two events are independent if the occurrence of one doesn't affect the probability of the other.

Dependence (Probability)

Two events are dependent if the occurrence of one does affect the probability of the other.

Unbiased (Outcomes)

Outcomes are equally likely.

Fair (Event)

An event that is both unbiased and independent.

Multiplication Rule (Probability)

If A and B are independent, then the probability of both A and B occurring (P(A ∧ B)) is P(A) * P(B).

Addition Rule (Probability)

If A and B are mutually exclusive (cannot happen simultaneously), then the probability of A or B occurring (P(A ∨ B)) is P(A) + P(B).

Availability Heuristic

Estimating the probabilities of events based on how easily examples of those events can be brought to mind, either through memory or imagination.

Availability-by-number hypothesis

The hypothesis that the number of examples that come to mind is the crucial factor in the availability heuristic.

Availability-by-speed hypothesis

The hypothesis that the ease or speed with which examples come to mind is the crucial factor in the availability heuristic.

Law of Large Numbers

Describes that large samples will be representative of the population from which they are drawn (e.g., the proportion of heads in many coin flips will converge to 0.5).

Law of Small Numbers

The (incorrect) application of the Law of Large Numbers to small numbers, assuming small samples are as representative of the population as large samples.

Representativeness Heuristic

Judging that A is more probable than B whenever A appears more representative than B, based on how similar an example is to members of its class or to what is perceived as randomness.

Gambler's Fallacy

The mistaken belief that if an event has not occurred recently in a series of independent trials, it is more likely to occur in the near future.

Base-rate neglect

The tendency to ignore general statistical information about the likelihood of events (base rates) in favor of specific, often less reliable, descriptive information.

Conjunction Rule

A fundamental rule of probability stating that the probability of a conjunction of two events (P(A&B)) cannot be greater than the probability of either individual event (P(A) or P(B)).

Conjunction Fallacy

Judging that a conjunction of two events (P(A&B)) is more probable than one of its constituent events (P(B)), which violates the conjunction rule.

Stereotyping

The process of inferring characteristics about an individual based on their categorization, often activating a generic set of beliefs about that category.

Bias Blindspot

The cognitive bias of recognizing the impact of biases on the judgment of others, while failing to see the impact of biases on one's own judgment.

Population (Statistics)

The entire group of individuals, objects, or data that a researcher is interested in studying.

Sample (Statistics)

A subset of the population from which observations are collected and measurements are taken.

Parameter (Statistics)

A characteristics of the population (e.g., population mean or standard deviation).

Statistic (Statistics)

A characteristic of a sample (e.g., sample mean or standard deviation) that is used to estimate a population parameter.

A priori power analysis

A calculation performed before a study to determine the minimum number of observations required to achieve a desired significance level and statistical power, given an effect size of interest.