GOV 312L Week 7 - Obama's Light Footprint Approach; Pakistan 2011

what is US opinion of Pakistan, and Pakistan’s opinion of the US?

• US views Pakistan as duplicitous

  • Pakistan accepted US money but undermined the effort by providing safe havens to its enemies

• Pakistan views their relationship as unequal, mistreated, ordered around

  • after 9/11, US coerced Pakistan to join the global war on terror against its own interests

T/F: Qazi says that instead of a broad partnership encompassing trade and culture, the US and Pakistan have a 1-dimensional limited transactional partnership centered on the war against Taliban/al-Qaeda.

true

why does the author Qazi say we should seek a fuller partnership with Pakistan?

• US plans to maintain military presence in Afghanistan beyond 2014

• US has interests in Central Asia for its oil and gas

• Pakistan might become dangerous; has nuclear weapons, unaccountable leaders, mismanagement, etc.

according to the author Qazi, in 2009, what was Obama’s goal in the war in Afghanistan?

to reverse the momentum of Taliban via counterinsurgency, and then withdraw, leaving behind a few thousand to protect the govt in Kabul and carry out limited counterterrorism against al-Qaeda and other groups.

what does Qazi say are the reasons why Pakistan supported the Taliban?

• Taliban is the Afghan group that is least averse to its interests and most capable of blocking increased influence by India

• feared that US would ignore Pakistan’s interests in Afghan endgame

T/F: US has attacked al-Qaeda while Pakistan has protected them.

False: al-Qaeda has cooperated with the US on attacking and arresting al-Qaeda members

what was Pakistani opinion on US drone strikes against al-Qaeda in Pakistan?

• unpopular with the Pakistani public b/c of civilian deaths

• Pakistani govt supports drone strikes behind the scenes

• Pakistani govt restricted policy (no drones can fly out of Pakistani bases, and Pakistan should have more control on decision making), but they will continue to cooperate

how much US aid was given to Pakistan over 10 years?

~$20 bil in total, including aid and reimbursements fighting al-Qaeda

T/F: in the aftermath of the bin Laden raid, the US increased aid to Pakistan

decreased

what risk was Obama facing when he ordered the attack on bin Laden?

• Leiter (director of National Counterterrorism Center, adviser to Obama) thought that we should wait for more evidence of bin Laden’s presence in Abbottabad, Pakista

• Panetta (Director of the CIA) thought this is the best evidence we’re gonna get and we have to strike when the iron’s hot

• administration’s predicted risks if we get it wrong:

  • Pakistani protests and attacks on US embassy

  • Pakistan breaks diplomatic relations with the US and fully sides with the Taliban

what was done with bin Laden’s body after his assassination?

a Muslim burial at sea, to make sure there’s no grave site for admirers to make a memorial of

T/F: Obama’s decision was to strike against bin Laden was a lone one in his adviser circle.

true; only Panetta wanted to strike.

why was Pakistan angry about the US assassination of bin Laden?

• embarrassment/anger at Pakistani army/ISI and US for allowing the US to conduct the whole thing without Pakistan’s knowledge

• violation of Pakistan’s sovereignty

T/F: Immediately after bin Laden’s assassination, the White House gave a full, accurate accounting of exactly what happened

false; media hunger for a play-by-play of the hunt led to contradictory, uncoordinated descriptions from the White House

Which of the following best describes the actual shift in Pakistani policy on US drones strikes inside Pakistan?

a) Reducing the number of strikes and getting advanced notice about target.

b) Acquiring American UCAV (unmanned combat aerial vehicle) technology to build Pakistan’s own drone fleet.

c) Ending US drone strikes completely because of the overwhelming popular pressure on the Pakistani military.

d) Supporting an expansion of the strikes beyond the Federally Administered Tribal Areas.

a) Reducing the number of strikes and getting advanced notice about target.

• but still continue to cooperate

T/F: In his 2012 article, Shehzad Qazi quotes a blogger who wrote, “Counter-insurgency is so 2007… All the cool kids are into counter-terrorism now.”

true

In the aftermath of the bin Laden raid, how did the U.S.-Pakistan aid relationship change?

a) The U.S. temporarily froze a portion of its military aid to Pakistan.

b) The U.S. stopped funding the protection of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons.

c) The U.S. increased its military aid to Pakistan to rebuild trust

a) The U.S. temporarily froze a portion of its military aid to Pakistan.

• US will likely reduce aid except for protection of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons

What was the opinion of the Pakistani parliament and media regarding the reaction of the ISI and the military of Pakistan?

a) They dismissed the raid as irrelevant to national security.

b) They considered the event a major military victory.

c) They praised the military for cooperating with the U.S. raid.

d) They viewed them as ineffective for allowing a foreign force to violate sovereignty.

d) They viewed them as ineffective for allowing a foreign force to violate sovereignty.

What was the U.S. government's primary reason for taking bin Laden's body from the compound?

a) They feared it could become a rallying site for his supporters.

b) They wanted to use it for DNA analysis in Pakistan.

c) They needed it for an international war crimes tribunal.

d) They planned to return it to his family for burial.

a) They feared it could become a rallying site for his supporters.

• they did ask Saudi Arabia if they wanted him back, but they said no

Before deciding to proceed with the bin Laden raid, what major concern did President Obama and his advisers consider regarding Pakistan’s potential reaction?

The possibility of protests, the overrunning of the U.S. embassy, and a diplomatic crisis.

 What were the diplomatic consequences for U.S.-Pakistan relations following the raid of bin Laden?

 Pakistani leaders became frustrated toward the U.S. for breaching their country’s sovereignty.

How, following the raid of bin Laden, did the Pakistani parliament and media judge the Pakistani intelligence and military community?

a) They demanded its leaders to be charged with treason.

b) They gave it credit for cooperating with the U.S. intelligence agencies.

c) They considered it ineffective, since it allowed a foreign force to violate Pakistani sovereignty.

c) They considered it ineffective, since it allowed a foreign force to violate Pakistani sovereignty.

• Admiral Mullen offered to call it a joint operation, but General Kayani didn’t want to

The lecture proposes which alternative to common complaints about Pakistan?

Pakistan is a normal country, with interests that sometimes overlap and sometimes diverge from US priorities.

T/F: Both India and Pakistan possess nuclear weapons but India’s conventional (non-nuclear) military capabilities far exceed Pakistan’s.

True. India’s military spending = 9x Pakistan’s

Which ethno-linguistic group makes up a plurality (largest but not a majority) of the population in Afghanistan and the second-largest ethno-linguistic group in Pakistan? 

Pashtuns

what are 3 common complaints Americans make about Pakistani policy, trying to blame Pakistan for America’s problems in Afghanistan?

1. Pakistan facilitated the return of the IEA (Taliban), even as it claimed to be advancing US’s goals in Afghanistan

2. Pakistan kept al-Qaeda members and other terrorists out of US’s reach

3. Pakistan accepted US development, military, and intelligence aid without delivering equal benefits for the US

T/F: Pakistan is the only nuclear power in the Muslim world

true

what was US’s relationship with Pakistan like in the 1980s?

partnership; Pakistan helped US kick out the Soviet Union from Afghanistan

what was US’s relationship to Pakistan in the 1990s?

US and Pakistan grew apart because

• they disagreed about recognizing the new IEA (Taliban)

  • Pakistan saw IEA (Taliban, Mullah Omar) as the best option for preventing India-allied Afghans (Northern Alliance) from running the govt

• Pakistan became a nuclear weapon state in 1998

what was the US’s relation to Pakistan after 9/11?

• got closer for the war on terror, but Pakistan was a reluctant/ambivalent partner

  • anti-US

    • Pakistan saw IEA (Pashtun) as the best option for Pakistan’s internal cohesion regarding rebellious areas within Pakistan and for Pakistan’s national security regarding India

    • Pakistan distrusted the US-backed leaders in Afghanistan (Karzai)

  • cooperation with US

    • found common cause in quelling al-Qaeda within Pakistan

In 1947, which countries got independence from Great Britain after being partitioned into a Hindu-majority country and a Muslim-majority country?

India and West+East Pakistan

T/F: partition of British-ruled India into India and East/West Pakistan was violent and deadly

True; 1 mil killed

what war did Pakistan fight that caused them to lose half of their territory/people in 1971?

Bangladesh Liberation War: East Pakistan turned into its own country, Bangladesh, with the help of India

the population of East Pakistan is overwhelmingly _____-speaking, even outnumbering the number of people in West Pakistan

Bengali

what caused the Bangladesh Liberation War of 1971?

Bengali-speaking East Pakistan had grievances with the central govt located in West Pakistan

The Pashtuns are a centuries-old trans-national community that predates British colonialism and modern-day ____ and ____. They were split down the middle by a border called the Durand Line.

Afghanistan, Pakistan

in Afghanistan, the Pashtuns are the ___-largest ethnic group. 

1st largest; 40% of population

what ethnic group are Afghanistan’s modern rulers and the Taliban from?

Pashtuns

in Pakistan, Pashtuns are the ___-largest ethnic group.

2nd largest

T/F: In Pakistan, the population is overwhelmingly Urdu.

false. Urdu is the official language, but only 7% of the population are native speakers. Pakistan doesn’t have a majority ethnic group. The largest group is Punjabis at 38%.

what is Pakistan afraid of regarding the Pashtuns, and how is that reflected in their actions/stances?

• want to prevent Pashtuns from joining together and splitting away from Pakistan

• in Pakistan, Pakistani govt suppresses any mass political dissent

• in Afghanistan, Pakistan supports Pashtun-led govts that would hopefully satisfy any desire for political power among the broader Pashtun community

• Pakistan wants anti-India, pro-Pakistan leaders in Afghanistan, in case of major territorial conflict with India