IR - Nuclear Weapons and Deterrence

what are nuclear weapons?

bomb or missile that uses nuclear energy to power its explosion

• can be strategic or tactical

strategic nuclear weapon

used to deter war

tactical nuclear weapon

used during war

nuclear weapons means of delivery

• ballistic missiles: aerial, ground-based, sea-based, submarine

• cruise missiles: air-, sea-, ground-launched

• human-delivered devices

who has the largest number of nuclear weapons?

Russia

how many nuclear armed states are there?

9

the paradox of the nuclear arms race

nuclear weapons are being deployed in great numbers, for the purpose of never being used

they are unfit for war fighting yet countries continue to expand their arsenals

why do states pursue nuclear weapons? realists approach

states seek nuclear weapons when they face a significant military threat to their security that cannot be met through alternative means

why do states pursue nuclear weapons? liberal approach

states build nuclear weapons when there are domestic political gains for policymakers

why do states pursue nuclear weapons? constructivists approach

states’ nuclear policies depends on their identity or on prevailing international norms

why is nuclear strategy crucial for the future of humanity?

because of the possibility of mass destruction

nuclear policy options

• use (highly taboo)

• defense

• deterrence

• non-proliferation

• disarmament

deterrence

discouraging an action or event through instilling fear of the consequences

how do you deter a nuclear attack?

must be able to credibly retaliate against an attack with nuclear weapons

mutually assured destruction (MAD)

each deterrent force must survive a first strike with sufficient capability to effectively destroy the other country in a second strike

• if both sides are capable of two strikes, the results are mutual, total and assured destruction

the need for creditability explains…

1. massive stockpiling of weapons beyond what appears rational

2. the adoption of “fail-deadly” procedures (USSR “Dead hand”

3. extended deterrence

how do you make a credible threat in MAD world?

brinksmanship brings credibility

• “the threat that leaves something to chance”

• using a tactical nuclear weapon could be a credible threat

MAD is ________ to ________

antithetical, defense

because there is no defense in MAD world because you cant protect yourself

why does MAD work?

because states fear being destroyed by a nuclear attack

what did the anti ballistic missile defense treaty do?

limited US and USSR defense capabilities

USSR “dead hand”

even if everyone is dead, nuclear weapons can still be deployed

if people could protect themselves against nuclear attacks it would….

incentivize them

when did the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) movement begin?

1970s

goal of the NPT movement

to prevent any more states from acquiring nukes

3 pillars of the Non-Proliferation Treaty

1. non-proliferation

2. disarmament

3. right to peaceful use

effectiveness of NPT

only 3 states acquired nukes after treaty was singed

(India, Pakistan, NK — they never signed treaty)

how many countries are part of NPT?

189

Kenneth Waltz stance

more nukes= stronger MAD world

nuclear weapons should proliferate to strengthen MAD

more nukes also balances power globally, which is the best way to prevent war (acc to realists)

Scott Sagan stance

more nukes = more potential for accidents

greater chance that nukes will fall into hands of terrorists, incompetent states

Sagan supports NPT