11: Foreign Policies. Ukraine Wars. Regional Conflicts

week 11

Unrecognised territories; de-facto states

• Abkhazia, Georgia

• South Ossetia, Georgia

• Transnistria, Moldova

• Gagauzia, Moldova

• Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijan

• Donetsk People’s Republic, Ukraine

• Luhansk People’s Republic

Univectorism in Foreign Policy

Western oriented:

• Latvia

• Lithuania

• Estonia

• Ukraine (2004-10; 2014-)

• Moldova

• Georgia (pre 2022)

• Azerbaijan (2000s)

Russian oriented

• Belarus

• Kazakhstan (pre 2022)

• Kyrgyzstan (pre 2022)

Multi-vectorism in Foreign Policy

• Armenia

• Turkmenistan

• Most other states after 2022

Western Leverage

authoritarian gov’s vulnerability to external democratising pressures

western leverage determined by

• size and strength of targeted state

• whether there are competing issues on the western foreign policy agendas relating to this state/region

• whether there is another alternative power that provides political, economic, military support

western leverage exercised through

• political conditionality

• punitive sanctions

• diplomatic pressure

• military intervention

Western linkage

extent of a country / regime’s ties to US, EU, powerful western countries, western-dominated multilateral institutions

western linkage, a product of

structural variable

• geography

• history

  • colonialism

  • geostrategic alliances

• long-term process of social and economic integration

Competitive influence-seeking

rival external actors building links and using leverage

EU and Moldova

• west had high leverage, low linkage

  • non-democratic gov until ‘09

• 2004 ENP Action Plan

• 2008 EU Autonomous Trade Preferences to Moldova

• 2009 Alliance for European Integration won elections

• 2009 Eastern Partnership Initiative

• 2014 Visa-free travel for Moldovans

Russia and Moldova

• Gas dependency

  • 2011 Russia pressed Moldova to suspend implementation of European Energy Community in exchange for low gas prices

• Russian investments

• Moldovan labour migrants in Russia

Transnistria and Moldova

1990-92

• war, won by Transnistria & Russia → de facto state

2003

• president Voronin didn’t sign agreement on Transnistria issue devised by Russian presidential representative Dmitry Kozak

2005-2022

• 5+2 process

• Moldova, Transnistria, OSCE, Russia, Ukraine

Transnistria

• Russian oriented population

• Russian media, Orthodox Church

• Fear of Romanianisation

• Russian investments and aid

• Trade with Moldova & EU, dependent on DCFTA

• Instrumentalisation of Transistrian conflict

Russian foreign policy in the 1990s

• accommodation with the west

• retrenchment, risk avoidance

• limits on nuclear weapons (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty)

• 1993 FP concept

  • “near abroad”

  • reduced global involvement

• Debt write-off for Soviet debtors

Russian Foreign Policy in 2000s

• 2001 War on Terror

  • no objections to US military presence in Central Asia

• 2002 US withdraws from Anti-Ballistic Missiles Treaty, Russia withdraws from START II

• 2002 NATO-Russia Council

• “Early” Putin neither pro nor anti-West

• 2002 address: “integration with west”

• “Energy superpower” concept

• Russia repays Soviet debt

Anti-Western Turn

2003

• Iraq war

• Transnistria peace plan derailed

2004

• Ukraine and Colour revolutions

2005

• Putin “collapse of USSR is the largest geopolitical catastrophe

2007

• Russia suspends Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe

2008

• Kosovo declaration of independence

  • Russia warns against setting a precedent

• Bucharest NATO summit

  • Ukraine & Georgia not invited for Membership Action Plan

  • Putin makes closed speech: “Ukraine is artificial. If Ukraine in NATO, Crimea & the East won’t go.”

Russo-Georgian War

1-12 Aug 2008

• South Ossetia provocations

• Georgian attack

• Russian counter-offensive

• recognition of Abkhazia & S Ossetia by Russia

Abkhazia

• 250k population

• 1992-93 war

South Ossetia

• 50k population

• 1991-92 war

following 2014

• “rally around the flag” after Crimea

• economic decline

• “fortress Russia”

• sanctions and anti-sanctions

• 2015 Syria

• Africa, the Wagner group

• New Cold war

Russian Soft Power

• soviet soft power

  • ideology

  • education

  • aid

• traditional & family values

• social conservatism

• links with European populists

• Russian pop culture, Orthodox church

Russian Sharp power

• No need to convince the world your system is the best.

  • Instead expose and make democracies less attractive

• RT and Sputnik

• Conspiracy theories

• Mixing false narratives with truth

• 2016 US elections intervention

• Troll factories and hackers

Rivalry with US

(2021) Putin claims US containment policy towards Russia is a consistent, aggressive policy aimed at disrupting development

• provoking internal instability & undermining values that unite Russian society

Reasons for Ukraine invasion

• personalist authoritarian regime

  • “yes-man”, inadequate info, need for legitimation

• neo-imperialism

  • great power aspirations

  • assertive nationalism

• NATO expansion

  • crossing “Moscow’s red lines”

2022 War in Ukraine

• major escalation from 2014

• 24th Feb “special military operation”

“great power” / “security” ukraine war argument

• Russia is a “great power”, should be treated like this

• “near abroad” is vital interest

• NATO is a threat

• Russia always retreated, taken advantage of

  • no reciprocal steps

  • Russia was weak

Imperial and nationalist argument

“modern Ukraine was wholly created by Bolshevik, communist Russia”

elements of genocidal intent

• “re-education and de-ukrainisation” of Ukrainians

Prelude to Ukraine war

March 2021

• first military build-up

June 2021

• Biden-Putin summit

Dec 2021

• Second military build-up

• “security guarantees” demands

  • Ukraine opts out of future NATO membership

  • reduction in NATO troops in CEE

• French, German, US diplomacy

Feb 21st 2022

• recognition of Donetsk and Luhansk by Russia in boundaries of Ukrainian regions

Feb 24th 2022

• “special military operation”

events prior to Ukraine war

2011-12

• Protest in Russia

• authoritarian turn

2013-14

• Euromaidan

2014

• Crimea annexation

• war in Donbas

• Minsk agreements

2019

• Zelensky election

2020

• Nagorno-Karabakh war

• revolution in Belarus & Russia’s role

Aug 2021

• US evacuation from Afghanistan

Jan 2022

• protests in Kazakhstan

• Collective Treaty Organisation intervention

Denatzification

• Pro-maidan groups include far-right

• “right sector”

  • 2014 and 2019 elections have about 2% support

• volunteer battalions

Russian propaganda

• Ukraine is governed externally, against Russia

• Ukraine is governed by Nazis, brotherly nation is forced to have “false consciousness”

  • Nationalism and Nazism are linked

• Breakup is inevitable without a union with Russia

• Russia did not instigate Donbas war, Russians in Donbas needed protection

• Moral degradation of the West

Donbas in 2014

• Ethnic Russians =/= Russian-Speakers

Jan-Feb 2014

• Euro-Maidan

April 2014

• Anti-Maidan demonstrations

  • occupation of gov buildings

• Sporadic expressions of regional discontent

• Anti-Terrorist Operation by Ukraine

11 May 2014

• referendums on local autonomy in Luhansk and Donetsk regions

• Ukraine’s volunteer battalions & regular army vs separatists

17 July 2014

• Malaysia airlines jet downing by separatists

Aug 2014

• direct invasion by Russian army

• failed Minsk agreements

Russia-Ukraine War events

Feb-March 2022

• Southern offensive

• Kyiv offensive

April-July 2022

• Donbas offensive

• parts of Donbas, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv regions annexed by Russia

Nuclear & WMD threats

Mass atrocities & war crimes

2023

• Ukraine counter offensive

2024

• Russia offensive

• Wagner Rebellion in Russia (June, 2024)

• Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk Region in Russia (Aug, 2024)

International Factors

• Military support to Ukraine

  • Rammstein meetings

• Refugees and humanitarian aspects

• Grain and food exports

• EU candidate status, June 2022

• Sanctions on Russia

  • US & EU, China, rest of the world

• Russian energy exports

Ukraine

• Combat and civilian deaths, POWs

• international volunteers

• refugee and humanitarian crisis

• conscription

• occupation forces

• Zelensky gov

Russia

• army and weaponry

• military supplies

• recruitment

• sanctions

• asset freezes

• public opinion and support for war

• immigration

• drone attacks of Russian regions

End of Near Abroad post 2022

• post-soviet states rebalance relationships with Russia

• Strengthen ties with other actors

• Turn away from Russia =/= turn toward democracy

• Turn away from Russia =/= turn toward West