PS 101: U3 and misc

politicians and political actors can shape public opinion because...

Americans look to these individuals for information based on their presumed expertise

People may adopt another's opinion as long as...

- the opinion seems reasonable
- they agree with the supposed expert

politicians and political actors work to shape public opinion in order to...

build support for policies

it is easier for politicians to change the opinions of people who are...

already sympathetic

why is it difficult for politicians to change opinions of those not already sympathetic?

politicians are generally seen as an advocate for a view
-> people only adopt if they believe it
-> less likely to listen

when do people typically form opinions?

on the spot

when people form opinions on the post they are based on...

considerations

consideration (definition)

pieces of relevant information from source that come to mind when an opinion is requested
- act as a shortcut for people to make judgments
- may lead to inaccurate judgments

the process of forming an opinion is

NOT thorough or systematic
- sometimes formed from very little information

citizen competence is the idea that citizens of a democratic system can...

- exercise political power effectively
- make discerning judgement on policy and politicians
- identify their own preferences and the matching candidate/party
- act in a way that does not undermine political principles

"how did most institutional features of the US Congress originate?"

Members of Congress and parties revising Congressional structure over time

true or false: most congressional features were laid out in the Constituion

false

"the second party system (1829-56) saw the Democratic Party do what to shape future party policies?"

establish the role of parties as distinct political organizations and use of the spoils system

"in a system of plurality voting and single-member districts, we expect parties to converge toward the center of the dominant political spectrum. What do we call this?"

Duverger's law

"why are parties beyond the two dominant ones electorally unviable in US politics?"

the convergence of the main parties ensures that third parties cannot attract enough voters to compete while main parties are relatively stable

"presidential elections are different from other elections in multiple ways. which of the following is NOT one of those ways?"
- nominees for the general election are chosen by their parties at a national convention
- the results of the popular election do not determine the winner
- candidates must be at least 30 years old to be eligible to run

candidates must be at least 30 years old to be eligible to run

- other two options only pertain to presidential elections

"how do 501(c)(4) organizations differ from 527 organizations?
- 501(c)(4) organizations do not need to report their donors of soft money
- 501(c)(4) organizations do not need to report their donors of hard money
- 501(c)(4) organizations are limited to spending only on specific campaigns

501(c)(4) organizations do not need to report their donors of soft money

Which of the following best defines an issue voter?
- A person that cares about one or more political issues enough to consistently vote
- A person so fervent about a single political issue that its relevance determines their vote
- A person that is well-informed and that uses this information to vote their preferences

A person that is well-informed and that uses this information to vote their preferences

What overarching goal of the media shapes the way that media actors produce their content in relation to both audiences and other relevant entities?
- The goal of informing the public about politics
- The goal of securing attention from an audience
- The goal of maintaining good working relationships with sources

The goal of securing attention from an audience

Given the idea of citizen competence, why might we care about systematic bias in the media?
- Bias will predetermine the political decision-making of media audiences
- Bias will produce greater ideological polarization and make compromise harder
- Bias will harm citizens' ability to make accurate, useful judgments about politics

Bias will harm citizens' ability to make accurate, useful judgments about politics

Which of these is a difference between leaking and off-the-
- Off-the-record statements are made under assurances of confidentiality, while leakers remain anonymous even to the media they work with
- Leaking involves the sale of private information, while off-the-record statements are part of a quid pro quo between media and sources
- Leaking involves revealing information not intended for the public; off-the-record statements reveal information strategically

Leaking involves revealing information not intended for the public; off-the-record statements reveal information strategically

"Imagine that a potential US voter is an old, white (recently incarcerated) felon" how likely are they to vote?

it depends on the state
- determines if they are legally allowed to vote

the belief that public opinion matters is...

foundational to democracy
- those in office must listen to constituents

According to political scientist V. O. Key basing policy and election strategy on....

public opinion makes sense
- electorate should behave relatively rationally + have some basis in reality
--> the only way to assess whether the government follows the wishes of the people is to know what the people want

public opinion describes...

what the population thinks about politics and the government
examples:
- evaluations of what the government is doing
- judgments about elected officials and others in the political process
- and the wider set of beliefs that shape these opinions

public opinion matters because...

- citizens' political actions are driven by opinions
- public opinion helps explain the behavior of candidates, political parties, and other political actors
- public opinion is key to understanding what motivates both citizens and political officials

what are the two types of opinions

- preformed opinions
- latent opinions/opinions formed on the spot

what are preformed opinions?

broad expressions/opinions that are formed early in life and are relatively stable
- party identification
- what someone wants from government
- principles that apply across issues

party id and ideology preference are a good example of...

stable opinions

the best way to predict an American's ideology at age 40 is to...
(also true for party id)

assume it will match their ideology at age 20

the majority of American's political judgments are...

latent opinions

what are latent opinions

opinions that are constructed only as needed
- opinions only become concrete when they're asked about them

the average person ____ maintain a set of fully formed opinions on all political topics (does or does not)

does not

people who follow politics closely will likely have more ___ opinions compared to the average American

preformed opinions

the average american's interest in politics is...

relatively low

intensity of opinion matters because...

it shapes whether and how people act on their opinions
- intensity determines how much a person's decision is based on it
- can explain why Congress must consider minority votes (if the minority has greater intensity)

public opinion both...

motivates and constrains elected officials

opinions formed through socialization are...

not necessarily permanent

theories of political socialization show children develop political opinions based on...

their parents

people often respond to events by...

modifying their opinions
- any type of event can change people's views

ideas learned during childhood usually...

shape people's political opinions throughout their lives

people are socialized by...

- parents
- communities
- social network

communities in socialization are

the people they interact with while growing up
- education
- church
- homogenous vs heterogenous community
- volunteering organization
- volunteering

networks in socialization are...

the people they interact with on a regular basis

networks serve as...

a source about political events and guides on interpretation

socialization often influences individuals....

fairly stable core beliefs

beliefs formed by socialization are...

not fixed

events may...

cause temporary or long-term changes in opinions

events can have varying levels of ____ and some people are ....

impact; more likely to change their views

opinion changes generated by an event or new information are more likely when...

an individual is unfamiliar with the even or information, yet considers it important
- don't yet have a set or preexisting principles or other considerations

people with strong beliefs are ___ to change their views than those with weaker opinions

less likely

In the US, opinions on many issues are correlated with...

the state or region where a person grew up or lives

region and age are examples of...

group identity

group characteristic can be...

important predictors of some of an individual's opinion
- not the whole story

what are the two types of opinions

- preformed
- opinions formed on the spot

most information about public opinion comes from...

mass surveys

what are mass surveys?

- a method of measuring public opinion
- in-person or phone interviews with a sample (may be relatively small) of individuals that aim to measure the attitudes of a large population or group

surveys typically involve samples between...

a few hundred to several thousand individuals

what are focus groups?

- method for measuring public opinion
- uses small groups of people interviewed in a group setting
- participants can answer in their own words --> provide deeper insights

focus groups ____ be applied to a population/entire country (can/cannot)

cannot
- focus groups are small in size and not necessarily representative
- group discussions may also lead participants to form and express opinions that might not otherwise have held

what is the major appeal of mass surveys?

in theory they can provide accurate estimates of public opinion for a large population using relatively small samples

what are two types of questions?

- yes/no
- issue scale

what is an issue scale survey question

- two opposing statements are provided
- participants asked to pick the statement or a choice between the extremes that's closest to their views

what is the trade-off regarding survey length?

learning more about each respondent's opinion vs getting a participant to take the survey
- people have limited attention spans --> less interested in taking longer surveys

what is sampling error/margin of error?

the predicted difference between the average opinion expressed by survey respondents and the average opinion in the population

what is the connection between sampling error and sample size?

error decreases rapidly (exponentially) as sample size increases
- relatively large at samples of 200 or less

considering sampling error when interpreting a poll on public opinion is important because...

impacts interpretation if the difference is within/outside the margin of error
- ex: a poll found a 51-49 split in candidate preference but the margin of error is about 2.5% --> can't draw firm conclusions

large samples of _____ are more likely to provide _____ information than small samples of ____

1,000 or more; more accurate; less than 500
- >1,000 sample good
- <500 sample caution

an individual should be cautious of survey responses if there are...

small differences
- which are unlikely to hold true in the entire population

non representative samples can...

significantly affect the accuracy of conclusions

what is an important recent development in techniques for surveys?

- combining surveys into a "more powerful" larger measure of public opinion
- weighs data from different polls based on previous accuracy
- combine different results to generate predictions

measuring public is...

hard to do

what are difficulties in polling?

- representative sampling
- wording of questions
- nature of public opinion
- analysis of results must account for who is being surveyed and when, and the mechanism of survey

issues with survey methods

- building a random sample is difficult
- unreliable respondents

internet polling and robo-polls are...

an alternative to traditional polling methods
- less expensive
- doubts about quality

what are push polls

polls from a campaign that use biased survey questions to shape public opinion
- not genuine polls because they are onto designed to measure opinion
- are a form of negative campaigning

the wording of questions can...

influence survey results
- demonstrates how hard it is to accurately measure opinions

how is building a random sample difficult?

people may refuse to participate or are not included --> pollsters must adjust survey results (sometimes successful sometimes not)

how are respondents unreliable?

people may be reluctant to reveal their true opinions
- may give socially acceptable answers or what they think is desirable - social desirability bias

what is the voter turnout example of how respondents are unreliable?

in most surveys up to 1/3 of respondents who say they voted actually didn't

what is the social desirability bias

people are less willing to admit to actions or express opinions (in surveys) they believe their community or society as a whole would disapprove of

how might pollsters try to minimize the problem of results being impacted by wording?

- ask questions in multiple ways
- verify answers (ex fact checking if respondents voted)
- frame a question in terms of the entire question vs about the respondent (to avoid respondents from hiding their prejudices)
- indirect questions (sit down for a drink vs like/dislike)

attempting to account for social desirability bias through rephrasing questions can...

introduce new biases

accurately gauging public opinion is _____.
The past mixed results in evidence is evidence of this (instead of purposefully skewing findings)

difficult
- past mistakes in polling also show why people should be reluctant to overinterpret results

respondents may _____ or _____, leading to inaccurate or outlandish survey results

not take survey seriously; respond based on misperceptions/biases/misinformation
- people may agree to take it and then give quick, thoughtless responses
- misperceptions may results when participants form opinions on the basis of whatever considerations come to mind (may be easy to use but not very informative)

if survey participants are prompted with a question they don't know much about, they may rely on their...

party considerations
- this is influenced by political elites and what they say

many supposed facts are actually...

contested truths

what are contested truths?

complex questions that even if people consider multiple information sources they may arrive at different conclusions

respondents' ability to express specific opinions rises if...

questions have to do with their daily life
- average Americans have a greater understanding of the US economy (and their personal economic condition) than say international relations

people will consider topics that relate to their everyday life to be more ____ compared to other topics (ex: economy vs international relations)

salient/prevalent

survey results are most likely to be accurate when the topic is...

simple, easily understood, and familiar to participants

why does timing have an effect on survey results?

- recent events may 'color' people's opinions temporarily
- if the poll is about a far off event people may not know much or have established their opinions

a survey on gun control taken immediately after a school shooting is likely to...

be temporarily skewed due to timing

why might a public official want to follow poll results?

if poll results show the public's opinion, then following it would make constituents happy

what complications are there for a public official to follow poll results?

- are the polls accurate?
- the poll doesn't not gauge constituents' opinion on the specifics

what is random sampling?

a sample where every member of the population has an equal chance of being chosen.
- the ideal sample

what is ideological polarization?

sharp differences in Americans' overall ideas of the size and scope of government
- separation of groups in the US public when it comes to issues, values, etc

what does data show about ideological polarization?

there has been no significant growth
- the US does NOT have high levels of ideological polarization (mixed scholarly consensus tho)

what type of polarization has increased?

affective

a greater amount of Americans identify themselves as...

independents