Class 4: The logic of deterrence

Deterrence

The practice of influencing an adversary’s decision-making by discouraging agressive actions

What are the types of deterrence?

1. Natural deterrence

2. Deliberate deterrence

Natural deterrence

Social behavior where conflict is avoided instinctivelt due to perceived risks.

Deliberate deterrence

Structured, strategic approch designed to prevenet an adversary from taking unwanted actions. Closely linked to a theory of victory.

Theory of victory

Integration of deterrence into a broader military and diplomatic planning.

What are the core ingredients of effective deterrence?

1. Capability

2. Communication

3. Credibility and resolve

Capability (= the stick) as effective deterrence

Military, economic and technological power that enforces deterrence. Military balance is assed by quantitative and qualitative power.

Communication (= the message) as effective deterrence

Clear signals that define red lines and consequences. Demonstrated through:

• Official policy statements

• Military exercises

• Strategic signals

Credibility and resolve as effective deterrence

Reinforcement of credibility through consistent actions including previous responses to agression.

Paradox of succesful deterrence

If deterrence is effective, nothing happens. The opponent simply chooses not to act.

What are the instruments of deterrence?

1. Military capabilities

2. Non-military instruments

3. Defense budgets

Which actors make military capabilities more complex to compare or measure?

1. Account for alliances

2. Regional dynamics

3. Multiple potential adversaries

What are the non-military instruments?

1. Economic sanctions

2. Diplomatic measures

3. Cyber and space capabilities

What are the factors equally important as defense budgets?

1. Readiness

2. Technology

3. Doctrine

What are the types of deterrence strategies?

• Deterrence by denial: making agression infeasible

• Deterrence by punisment: threatening severe consequences for agression

What are the different deterrence scenarios?

1. Peacetime deterrence: maintaining readiness to prevent conflicts.

2. Crisis deterrence: preventing escalation during high tensions.

3. Intrawar deterrence: managing escalation within an ongoing war.