US Foreign Policy - Ch. 10

Policymaking Models

What do models do?

simplify complex reality, meaning to events, organise disorganised world, break reality into manageable parts, simplify complex happenings, highlight casual relationships

What is a model?

incomplete picture, doesn’t capture everything

Rational Actor Model

assumes foreign policy making is orderly, coherent, rational, states are assumed to have clear and definable interests, state is unitary actor speaking with single voice, foreign policy action is product of carefully calculated decision by state’s leader, foreign policy choice is produced from selection of carefully weighed and evaluated policy options, clearly stated goals and objectives and paths to reach goals

What were Kennedy’s six policy options in the Cuban Missile Crisis?

do nothing, apply diplomatic pressure, conduct secret approach to Castro, invade , conduct surgical air strikes, conduct blockade

What are the two types of rationality?

bounded and instrumental

What is bounded rationality?

based on available evidence

What is instrumental rationality?

rational to achieve whatever goal, goal doesn’t have to be correct or morally right

What is a deficiency in rationality?

groupthink

What was groupthink inspired by?

the faulty foreign policy decision making by US in Vietnam

Organisational Process Model

state not assumed to be a unitary actor, state is collection of loosely allied organisations, each organisation has its own roles and responsibilities and SOPs and culture and way of thinking, behaving, and operation

What were the examples of the Organisational Process Model?

Navy’s blockade of Cuba during Cuban Missile Crisis (1962), deployment of Soviet missiles in Cuba, transfer of missile technology to China by the U.S. Department of Commerce (1996), U.S. military and looting in Iraq (2003)

Government Politics Model

decisions emerge from the interplay of multiple actors within the state, each one having its own interests and agendas, decision making in foreign policy is logrolling and vote trade in Congress, process of “pulling and hauling”, foreign policy decision often represents victory of one group over another

What are the foreign examples of the Government Politics Model?

Obama’s 2008 decision to send more troops to Afghanistan (Biden v. Clinton), Globalists v. Nationalists in Trump’s White House (Gary Cohn and Larry Kudlow v. Peter Navarro), drug trafficking (CIA v. DEA), Pakistan hiding bin Ladin (Inter-Services Intelligence v. civilian government)

What were the domestic examples of the Government Politics Model?

President Kennedy made prohibition of Soviet offensive weapons issue in 1962 election (“He can’t do this to me!”), U.S. policy toward apartheid in South Africa (1986 Anti-Apartheid Act passed over President Reagan’s veto), Trump’s recognition of Jerusalem as capital of Israel and annexation of the Golan Heights