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asset bubble
When the price of an asset increases at a rapid pace beyond the asset's fundamental value
negative demand shock
unexpected change that reduces consumption/investment spending
negative supply shock
unexpected change that makes production across the economy more difficult
natural federal funds rate
rate where monetary policy is neither expansionary or contractionary
neutral rate estimate (now)
2.6% nominal
0.6% real (accounts for inflation)
federal funds rate (now)
3.5-3.75 %
central bank
controls money and credit, provides financial services for the federal government, maintains stability of economy and currency (USA is federal reserve)
1907 panics
banks failed and private investors like JP morgan had to bail them out --> he advocated for a central bank
1913/1914 compromise
the year/years the federal reserve started
functions of the federal reserve
maintain payments system
supervise and regulate financial institutions
monitor stability of the financial system
conduct monetary policy(dual mandate)
how many fed reserves are there
12 regional banks that are privately owned
24 branches
(36 total)
average lifespan of 1$ bill
18 months
FED BANKS
regional FRBs are owned by private companies, where the president is appointed by the board
each has 9 directors, 6 picked by bankers and 3 are appointed by the government
establish the discount rate (right above ffr)
beige books
select federal advisory council
collect date and monitor conditions
new york FRB
international financial capital
supervise and regulate
open market desk (buy and sell bonds)
prez has perm voting seat
board of governors
Washington D.C. (public)
funded by interest from bonds
7 members appointed by president cnfm by sen.
14 year terms (YOUR OWN)
role of BOG
serve on FOMC
FOMC chair appointed for 4 year term by prez
effectively set discount rate
set margin requirement for securities
set salaries for fed prez, officers
approve most bank mergers
Federal Open Market Comittee (FOMC)
meet 8 times a year (every 6 weeks) for 2 days
7 BOG and 12 FRB presidents
sets the FFR and reserve requirements
sets interest on the reserve
only 12 vote: 7BOG, NY prez, 4 rotating prez
current reserve requirement
0%
Pros of Central Bank Independence
focus on long term objective
not influenced by politics
prevent political business cycle
expertise
pursue unpopular policies in public interest
Cons of Central Bank Independence
Undemocratic
monetary policy affects all
lack of accountability
public holds congress/prez accountable
fiscal and monetary policy can cross purpose
self interest vs. public interest
Federal Reserve Independence (Rubin Doctrine)
fed independence should be respected by the President (they shouldn't comment)
Fed reserve transparency/accountability/credibility
release of minutes
inflation targets (anchoring)
forecast horizon 3 years + lr projections
press conferences after meetings
Who pays for fed?
Fed money comes from the banks
BOG money comes from interest on bonds
if Fed earns profit, it goes to the treasury
reserve
cash held by banks in their vault or in an account w/ the fed
required reserve ratio
percent of deposits that must be held in reserve
total reserves equation
total reserves = required + excess
monetary base
monetary base = currency + reserves
controlled by OMO (buying/selling bonds
Federal Reserve Assets
securities and loans to commercial banks and thrift institutions
repurchase agreement
Federal Reserve buys securities from a counterparty subject to an agreement to resell the securities at a later date, thus temporarily increasing the supply of reserves in the banking system.
reverse repurchase agreement
Federal Reserve sells securities to a counterparty subject to an agreement to repurchase the securities at a later date, thus temporarily decreasing the supply of reserves in the banking system.
money supply
money supply = monetary base * money multiplier