self-serving biases & overconfidence

self-serving attributions are either

• internal: good internal traits

• external: bad external surrounding

self-serving comparisons are either

upward or downward

downward social comparisons

the process of comparing ourselves with those who are less well off

downward social comparisions

the process of comparing ourselves with those who are less well off

upward social comparisons

the process of comparing ourselves with those who are better off than ourselves

explanation for self-serving bias

motivated to draw conclusions favorable to self

self-handicapping

not putting in your strongest effort, so failure or consequence isn’t as bad

self-serving bias & fairness

conflating what’s fair with what benefits oneself

false consensus effect

tendency for people to see own behavior as typical & assume that others would do the same under similar circumstances

explanation for false consensus effect

cognitive and motivational

false consensus effect - cognitive

own opinions more salient, displace consideration of alternatives; seek out company of similar others

false consensus effect - motivational

subjectively justify correctness of our opinions by grounding them in exaggerated consensus - may enable stable perception of reality

the above average effect

when assessing their position on a distribution on almost any positive trait, most people think they’re above average

interventions that make people more competent tend to make them…

less overconfident

overprecision (overconfidence)

people tend to be overly confident about their knowledge

confidence paradox

to ti the extent confidence is rewarded, it can lead to overconfidence

illusion of explanatory depth

because of our familiarity with ordinary machines & tools, we often think we know how they work