Tipping points - Lecture 8 (socio-economic tipping points)

how can tipping point analysis be used in society

about how to promote positive tipping points (change for good NOT postive feedbacks) when impact can be economically detrimental

what is SCC

the social cost of carbon. it is the economic cost of emitting one additional tone of co2

how much does climate tipping5 points increase the social cost of carbon by

25%

what do climate tipping points do to global economic risk

increase it

what is compound risk

can involve events that are not casually correlated but exceptions exist e.g interactions across ENSO

what are example of compound events

• events that occur simultanenously

• extremes combined with background conditions to amplify their impact

  • extremes that result from combinations of average events

what are interacting and interconnected risks

• widespread netweok of causes and effects. they tend to overlap with compound risk in the hazard domain

• tend to overlap with cascading risk in the social and technological domains

How are system- based models (SMB) helping the planet

becoming the benchmark when simulating the future of social ecological systems that are feedback driven and vulnerable to regime-shift dynamics

what are cascading risks

a chain of events that now focus on protecting critical infrastructure of systems vital to functioning society

why do we want to make tipping points

Want to MAKE a tipping point. Reduce the barrier to change – go towards a decarbonized state 

what are STEs and STIs

Social tipping elements and social tipping interventions

what can STE AND STIs help to do

drive rapid decarbonization

what is green growth

a way to pursue economic growth and development, while preventing environmental degradation, biodiversity loss, and unsustainable natural resource use

what can green growth policies help spur

transformational change and ensure that investing in the environment can contribute to new, more sustainable sources of growth and development

what are the 2011 pillars of green growth stratergy synthesis report

• the need for a green growth model

• promoting the transition

• enabling change

• measuring progress

• delivering on green growth

how has the UK moved towards a greener future

The UK has one of the strongest records of emissions reduction in the OECD since the early 1990s. Energy industries have been the largest source of emission reductions, with the shift in electricity generation from coal to gas and, in the past decade, to renewable energy. Progress is slower in other sectors; transport is the largest greenhouse gas (GHG) emitter. With the COVID-19 crisis, GHG emission have decreased by 9% in 2020

what is happening in Europe with deforestation

Pressures from habitat change (land use/condition) and pollution are the key drivers of change across terrestrial biodiversity. Other threats are over-exploitation, invasive species and climate change. The main threats to the marine environment are fishing pressure, climate change, acidification, hazardous substances and eutrophication.

what are some societal tipping points

• horese to cars

• BLM

• votes for women

how can a positive tipping point be induced

boosting agents’ capacities to implement pathways of solutions to achieve a transformative vision of the world.

what country has tipped to electric vehicles

norway!

how to make a global electric vehicle tipping point

need to be cheaper than petrol cars, with policy support, renewables introduced,

how to make a global renewable tipping point

why are these greener tipping points not more widespread regarding decarbonization

• If carbon prices are set equal to some estimated ‘social cost of carbon’, intended to internalize the externality of dangerous climate change, there is no reason to expect this to correspond to a level that will activate tipping points.

• Furthermore, if the same carbon price is applied across the whole economy, it may be much lower than needed to activate tipping points in some sectors, while being much higher than needed in others.

• The opportunity to activate upward-scaling tipping cascades will be missed if the value of decarbonization policies is judged only on their immediate effects within a given jurisdiction.

what are some examples of positive enviromental tipping points

• 15 min cities

• ecosystem reintroductions

• electric vehicles (in some places)