Voting Behaviour

Edexcel politics a level (Paper 1)

Social class:

A, B, C1

• middle class

• managerial positions - administrative or professional

• traditionally vote for Conservative

Social class:

C2, D, E

• skilled, semi-skilled,unskilled workers or casual manual workers

• working class

• traditionally vote Labour

Recent trends of incluence of social class on voting behaviour

1974-1992 over 50% of A,B,C1 class people voted for Conservatives which has changed recently.

2017-2029 C2,D,E Labour voters declined from 44% to 35%

2015-2019 A,B,C Labour voters increased from 28% to 42%

Is class still important in voting behaviour

(Agree)

• despite a drop, a plurality of MC voters still vote Conservative

• WC voters were increasing for the Labour Party until the 2019 election

• Class may also link to other factors such as education

• Trend of mc voters voting Labour and wc voting Conservatives in modern democracy. Even if classes are not voting for their ‘traditional’ party, there is still a correlation between class and voting behaviour

Is class still an important factor in voting behaviour

(Disagree)

• Conservatives won a number of ‘red wall’ seats in the 2019 election which had traditionally been held by Labour

• Majority of voters no longer vote in line with the traditional expectations of their class

• Other factors such as age, region or ethnicity seem to be more important in determining voting patterns across the UK

• 2024 GE - Labour had support across all social classes

Outline the general trend in class voting behaviour between 1974 and 2019

There is a small margin as to how the mc and wc differ in their voting patterns. A majority of voters no longer vote in line with the traditional expectations of their class.

Partisan Dealignment

Party policies have changed and politicial education has increased, people ar eless likely to have loyalty to one specific party but vote on issues that are relevant and important to them at each election

Gender (trend)

whilst there is little evidence that gender affects voting behaviour in the UK, there is a marginal trend that men support the Conservatives whilst women support the Labour Party.

Women and men may prioritise different issues - women tend to favour increased spending and oppose cuts to public services

Gender in elections

1997 - equal number of men and women supporting Labour (44%) - first all female electorate

YouGov- (2017) women equally split between Labour and Conservatives (43%), men more likely to back the Conservatives (45% to 39%)

2024 - women L:C 35% to 26%,

men L:C 34% to 23%

Class dealignment

people are less likely to associate themselves with a specific class as occupations in society has changed

Age (trend)

young voters (18-24)more likely to vote for Labour, older voters (55+) vote Conservatives. (55+) votes for Labour have declined and (18-24) votes for Conservatives have declined

Age in general elections

2017 - Labour 47% lead over Conservatives among 18-19 yr olds, Conservatives had a 50% lead among 70+ voters

2024 - 18-24yr olds held 41% of the Labour vote, 5% Conservatives

65+ held 43% of the Conservative vote and 23% of the Labour vote

Ethnicity (trend)

BME vote Labour, more white voters tend to vote for the Conservatives rather than Labour

Ethnicity in general elections

2019 - Labour performed better than the Conservatives among EMs (64% to 20%), Conservatives led amongst the white voters (48% to 29%)

2024 - (white) 33% Lab to 26% Cons

(EM) 46% Lab to 17% Cons

Education (trend)

those with no qualifications voting in a majority for the Conservative Party and those with a degree voting in a plurality for the Labour Party

Education in general elections

2017 - no qualifications - 52% voted Cons, 35% Lab

Degree - 33% Conservative, 48% Lab

2024 - no qualifications - 39% Cons, 28% Lab

Degree - 43% Lab, 19% Cons

Region (trend)

Labour does well in the North (cities) whilst Conservatives do well in the South (countryside). 2019 Election, Conservatives gained a number of ‘red wall’ seats in traditional Labour heartlands in the North

Region in elections

2019 - gains for Conservatives in Midlands and is small and medium-sized towns, urban vs rural split - Cons 21/73 MPs in London

2024 - Conservatives performed well in the South whereas Labour maintained strength in the North

Other factors affecting voting behaviour (rational choice and governing competency)

voters are rational and will evaluate current circumstances and the policies that parties are offering to vote for a party that will best serve their needs - linked to issue voting

Valence

how much a voter trusts that a party will be able to deliver on its promises - linked to governing competency

Party Leadership

voting takes place in constituencies, voters may evaluate party leaders when determining how to vote. May look to the leaders’ personality, reliability, trust and experience.

Party manifestos

what policies a party is offering especially in the context of current circumstances

tactical voting

if a constituency is a safe seat, a voter may choose to vote tactically in order to get the ‘least bad’ outcome for them

opinion polls

where it might appear that a specific party is highly likely to win from opinion polls, this may decrease turnout. If opinion polls suggest a close election, it may also affect the way a party chooses to campaign for the election

turnout

the number of people that turn out can affect an electoral outcome. Older people are more likely to turn out than younger people, which can help the Conservative party achieve a majority

Media

traditional print media may choose toback a particularl party and encourage its readers to vote that way too.

Explain recent trends in voting behaviour linked to education and region

Most qualified people tend to vote Labour whilst less qualified people vote for Conservatives. The North tends to vote for Labour whilst the South tends to vote for Conservatives (urban - rural divide)

list four factors that might affect voting behaviour beyond social factors

Party Leadership, Party manifestos, opinion polls, tactical voting, rational choice/governing competency, media, turnout, valence, campaigns

what is rational choice theory?

a voter will vote for a party that best

Is class important (Agree)

even if class allegiance to a particular party is changing, trends are still evident

Is class important (disagree)

class dealignment suggests this factor is increasingly difficult to determine

Is age important? (agree)

been an important factor in recent elections

Is age important? (disagree)

is a recent trend and may not continue

is region important (agree)

there are notable regional variations across the UK

is region important (disagree)

regional variations have undergone significant changes