Democratic Backsliding

When did democracy breakdown

1918-1939

Which countries fell into faschist movements

Germany and Italy

Where did democracy collapse?

Spain

Austria

Portugal

Majority of eastern europe

What was the breakdown of democracy first characterised by?

States seeked to regain lost territory and power

What happened after they seeked to regain power?

Rise of nationalism and anti-democratic movements

Communist revolutionary ideas

What happened after the rise of nationalism?

Spread of political instability and violence

What happened after the spead of political instability?

Fragile weak democratic institutions begin to fail.

fascist/communist revolution leads to democratic collapse in Europe.

When was the first wave of democratisation? What did it do?

1970s

democratic governance spreads across the world

Examples of things that created new states and democracies across the world?

Revolutions in Southern and Eastern Europe

Dissolution of USSR

Post cold-war dynamics

What shows at the end of 2017?

57% of countries with populations over 500,000 are democracies

When did the number of democracies reach an all-time high?

2016

What has plummeted?

The number of people who have democratic rights

What happened between 2016 and 2022 with democratic rights

it fell from 3.9 billion to 2.3 people who have them

What is electoral fraud?

illegal interference with the electoral process to alter election outcomes

vote buying

ballot stuffing

voter suppression

manipulation of results or voting machines.

What is vote buying?

Using money or materiel goods to buy votes

Example of vote buying

Philippines (2016 election), where voters were offered cash for support

What is ballot stuffing?

Putting the wrong number of votes into the box

Russia 2007 and 2011

What is voter supression

Specific laws that stop certain voters being able to vote

UK law for having to bring ID

What is manipulation of Electoral systems?

Misreporting results or messing with electronic voting systems

What are the techniques of Gerrymandering?

Cracking

Packing

Literature

What is cracking?

Diluting the voting power of opposition supporters across multiple districts.

What is packing?

Concentrating opposition voters in a few districts to reduce their influence elsewhere

What is the impact of gerrymandering on representation?

Reduces competitiveness in elections

underrepresentation of minorities

skewed policy outcomes

What is the efficiency gap?

a quantitative metric designed to assess partisan advantages in electoral

districting

What does the effiecieny gap measure?

The difference between the two major parties in terms of

"wasted votes”

What is wasted votes?

votes that do not contribute to winning a district

What does wasted votes include?

Votes for losing candidates

Surplus votes for winning candidates

What is surplus votes for winning candidates?

Votes beyond the number needed to secure a victory in a district

How do you calculate the efficiency gap? 3 steps

1) Compute the total number of wasted votes for each party across

all districts.

2) Calculate the difference in wasted votes between the two parties.

3) Divide this difference by the total number of votes cast in the election to find the percentage representing the gap.

What does an efficiency gap favouring one party show?

a systematic advantage from things like gerrymandering

Where in the US is there an efficiency gap?

The US court

What does the adoption of the effieceincy gap in US courts show

its ability to show a clear quantifiable result for challenging unfair districting

What case shows the effieciency gap in the US

Rucho v. Common cause 2019

What was Rucho v Common cause 2019

The efficiency gap showed favouring of republicans in north carolina and maryland (democrats)

What was created in the US to try and stop gerrymandering?

Independent Redistricing commissions

Where have independent redistricting commissions?

California

Arizona

Michigan

Why did they create an IRC in michigan

created in 2018 after decades of complaining about gerymandering

What is a hybrid system?

combine democratic and authoritarian regimes and elements

What are the 3 country examples of hybrid systems

Turkey

Japan

Mexico

When was turkey a hybrid system?

2002 to now

How did Turkey turn into a hybrid system?

growing executive dominance in an unstable system which has led to a presidential one-party system

When was japan a hybrid system?

1945 to 1990s

Why was japan a hybrid system?

one party dominance because of electoral system manipulation

What is the party in Turkey

AKP

When was the rise of AKP and early reforms?

2002-2011

When was AKP founded?

2001

What did the AKP initially fight for?

democratic reforms to try and access the EU

What did the democratic reforms in the AKP do?

reduced military influence in politics and increased civic freeodms

When and what marked a turning point for Turkey?

2013 Gezi park protests

What was the government reaction to the gezi park protests?

harsh because they did not tollerate dissent

What happened in 2016?

coup attempt to purge 30% of the judiciary and replace them with loyalists

What happened in 2017 in Turkey?

constitutional referendum transformed parliamentary system into centralized presidential system

What is the first mechanism of control in Turkey?

Media control

How is turkey media controlled?

pro government and if it is not they can be taxed and closed down

What is the second mechnism of control in turkey

Judicial weaponization

How does judicial weaponisation happen in turkey

the courts are full of AKP loyalists which means all laws can be passed

What happens after electoral and judicial institutions are comprimised in any democracy

media and civil society is left with little protection from abuse

Which country is the current example for undermining media and civil society

Russia

What are the 4 key undemocratic thinsg russia does

Ballot stuffing

Misreporting results

Carousel voting

Exclusion of opposition candidates

What is the example of ballot stuffing in russia

2011 parliamentary elections loads of Videos emerged showing individuals casting multiple ballots

What are the 3 examples in russia of manipulation of electoral laws

control of the electoral commission

Gerymandering and electoral design

Referendums as a tool for legitimazation

What is another form of democratic backsliding

Ethno-majoritarianism and illiberal democracy

What is examples of etho-nationailism

The USA with trumps border politics and white nationalism

what party is in india and what does it do

The BJP which shows hindi nationalism

When was the BJP party elected and under who

2014, Modi

Example of democratic backsliding under moti

Article 370 revoked which ended muslim majority

What act excluded muslims from fast tracked citizenship

Citizen Amendment Act 2019

What did the National Register of citizens do?

Thrreatened to strip millions of citizenships more affecting muslims

How does india show mechanisms of control?

PM’s office makes all major decisions (executive centralisation)

How does india show violence against minorities

attacks on muslims over ‘cow protection’

How did india show electoral manipulation

The opposition bank accounts were frozen

What is competititve authoritarianism?

Hybrid regime which combines democratic institutions with serious authoritarian abuses

What is a key characteristic of competititve authoritarianism?

Electoions are held but there is ballot stuffing voter suppression and manipulation

What happens to media in competititve authoritarianism

states control television and radio

What resources are abused in competititve authoritarianism which is a characteristic

state resources, government uses public funds

What is a court characteristic of competitive authoritarianism?

courts favour the ruling party

What is an example of compettitve authoritarianism?

Venezuela

How long did democratic backsliding happen in venezuala

1999-2013

Who created the democratic backsliding

Chavez

What did Chavez do to the constitution

rewrote it which weakened the legislature and created military control

When did Venzuala transition to authoritarianism and under who

2013 to now

Maduro

What happened in 2015 in venezuala

Opposition won National Assembly elections

Maduro stripped legislature of power via Supreme Court (2017)

What happened to the military under Maduro

Armed forces were used heavily in the regime

What are the key patterns of democratic backsliding

Incremantalism

Autocratic legalism

Manipulation of crisis

What is incrementalism

it avoids triggering resistance because it happens graudually

What is autocratic legalism

Using legal mechanisms to target opposition while protecting allies

What are the key institutions under threat

Judiciary

Media

Civil society

electoral systems

What are some warnings for democratic backsliding?

Democracy is not self sustaining

Early warning signs matter

International pressure is crucial

being aware of the global trend