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What are the main reasons for business growth?
Meet demand, Improve efficiency, Stay competitive, Respond to industry changes
What are the two requirements for growth?
Cash and Organizational capacity
What does growth look like operationally?
Hiring staff, Buying inventory, Buying equipment
What limits business growth?
Cash availability and Owner's willingness to take on debt
What is slow growth?
Growth funded mainly by internal cash
What is fast growth?
Growth requiring borrowing or external funding
What are fixed costs?
Costs that do not change with output
What are variable costs?
Costs that change with production/sales
What does CM represent?
Profit contribution per unit
What is break-even point?
Where profit = 0
If fixed costs increase, what happens to break-even?
It increases
If variable costs increase, what happens?
CM decreases → break-even increases
If price increases, what happens?
CM increases → break-even decreases
What is cost-benefit analysis?
Comparing total benefits vs total costs
When should a decision be accepted?
When benefits > are greater then costs
What is a key limitation of cost-benefit analysis?
Ignores qualitative factors (risk, uncertainty)
What is cash flow?
Actual movement of cash in/out of business
What is the difference between profit and cash flow?
Profit = money you earn (on paper)
Cash flow = money actually moving in and out of your bank
Why can profitable firms fail?
They run out of cash
What are cash inflows?
Sales, loans, investments
What are cash outflows?
Wages, rent, inventory, expenses
What is a cash flow forecast?
Projection of future cash inflows/outflows
Why is forecasting critical?
To predict cash shortages
What must every forecast number come from?
Historical data OR An assumption
What is the purpose of an assumptions table?
Connect logic → numbers
How many assumptions should there be?
8-12 key drivers
How can revenue be forecasted?
Growth %, Price × volume, Customers/transactions
What MUST happen if revenue increases?
At least one must increase: Working capital, Staffing, Capacity
What is working capital?
Money tied up in operations
What are the components of working capital?
Accounts receivable, Inventory, Accounts payable
What happens when revenue grows?
Working capital increases → needs more cash
Why is increased working capital dangerous?
Profit may increase but cash decreases
What are step costs?
Costs that jump at certain levels
What are examples of step costs?
Hiring new staff, New facility, Software upgrade
What is the order of income statement forecast?
Revenue, COGS, Gross profit, Expenses, Operating income, Interest, Net income
What is internal consistency?
Numbers must make operational sense
What is an example of inconsistency?
Revenue increases but costs stay the same
What is CAPEX?
Investment in long-term assets
What does ROI measure?
Profitability
What is payback period?
Time to recover investment
Why is payback important?
Measures risk
What is a limitation of ROI?
Ignores scale
Ignores time value of money
Ignores timing of cash flows
Can be misleading
What is a limitation of payback?
Ignores future profits
Ignores cash flows after payback
Ignores time value of money
What are sources of funding?
Owners, Debt, Investors, Crowdfunding
What are the 3 C's of credit?
Character, Capacity, Collateral
What do investors care about?
High growth and high returns
What do lenders care about?
Ability to repay (low risk, steady cash flow)
What is the most important concept overall?
Cash flow > profit
What are the two scarce resources for a business owner?
Time and money
What are key elements of a business plan?
Business idea
Market analysis
Financial projections
Funding needs
Running out of cash
Not linking numbers to assumptions
Ignoring working capital
What is the purpose of financial ratios?
To evaluate performance and financial health
What do liquidity ratios tell you?
Can the business pay its short-term bills?
Why do lenders care about liquidity?
They want to know if they'll get repaid
What do efficiency ratios measure?
How well the business uses its resources
What does asset turnover tell you?
How efficiently assets generate revenue
What do leverage ratios measure?
How much debt the business is using
What does debt-to-equity tell you?
How much debt vs owner investment
What is an operational-centric strategy?
Focus on efficiency and cost control
What metric matters most for operational strategy?
Margins
What is a customer-centric strategy?
Focus on customer experience and value
What metric matters most for customer-centric strategy?
Revenue and customer satisfaction
What is a volume (growth) strategy?
Focus on increasing total sales
What trade-off happens in a volume strategy?
Margins may decrease
What are the 3 things you must evaluate in growth?
Profit, Margins, Returns
Why is profit alone misleading?
Because it doesn't show efficiency
If profit increases but margins decrease, what does it mean?
Growth is less efficient
If ROE (Return on Equity) decreases after growth, what does it mean?
Owners are getting worse returns
When analyzing a business decision, what is step 1?
Identify what metric matters (profit, cash, margins, etc.)
If a question gives you profit, what should you question?
Whether margins and returns also improved
If a question gives you cash flow, what should you focus on?
Survival and financing needs
If a business expands, what typically increases?
Assets, Liabilities, Costs
Does growth automatically mean success?
No
What must growth improve to be considered good?
Efficiency and returns