Robert J. Art, “The United States, the Balance of Power, and World War II: Was Spykman Right?”

By entering WW2

US prevented the gravest geopolitical threats to its security; rise of German and Japanese Hegemonies in Eurasia

WW2

posed the greatest security threat of the six major wars

Art analyzes Spykman’s argument

If Germany and Japan had won WW2, the US would have been defeated eventually - helps us better understand power theory

Spykman’s four main arguments

1. Germany and Japan could not swiftly defeat the US due to its military and economic strength

2. instead they would first strangle the US economy via a global blockade and embargo

3. once the blockade weakened the US, they could deliver a decisive military blow

4. to avoid this, the US had to fight immeditaely while it still had powerful allies- otherwise, it would be isolated and eventually defeated

military conquest of the US

was impossible without economic strangulation

US defensive strengths

• naval and air power were the great equalizers

• 2 reasons why the blockage would’ve been devastating

  • the US could not break a global embargo

  • the US could not replace its lost raw materials from sources in the Western Hemisphere

1942 German Empire

serves as a benchmark for assessing vulnerabiltiies

Battle of the Atlantic

secured naval command of the English Channel

strategic bombing of Germany

secured air superiority over Western Eurasia

five factors offset the Eurasian Hegemons’ productive superiority

1. productive capacity alone was insufficient to win

2. the Allies combined productivity with strategic advantages

3. the hegemons’ economic strength did not easily translate into military projection

4. the US significantly close the productive gap

5. US defensive advantages compensated the the hegemons’ superior productivity

Spykman argued

that the US lacked sufficient reserves of 11 strategic raw materials

11 strategic raw materials

aluminium, antimony, chrome, manganese, mica, nickel, quartz crystal, quicksilver, tin, tungsten, rubber

chrome was critical for

steel, armor plating, and munitions

1937 wartime needs

800k tons per year of chrome

Art challenges Spykman’s claim

• underestimated US access to essential materials

• US had alternative sources for strategic raw materials

counterarguments to Spykman

1. counterfactuals cannot be proved or disproved

2. alternative military threats

3. economic scale and innovation

4. sustainability of the quarter sphere

5. political cohesion of the quarter sphere

6. american political psychology

alternative military threats

even without strangulation, Germany and Japan could have found other ways to threaten the US

economic scale and innovation

larger economies do not always innovate faster- scale does not guarantee technological superiority

sustainability of the quarter sphere

the US might have struggled to sustain its defensive economy given massive raw material consumption

political cohesion of the quarter sphere

the US would have needed strong internal unity to withstand prolonged conflict

american political psychology

the American public might not have tolerated the sacrifices needed for long-term isolation

If German and Japan developed their own nukes

• the US could have avoided direct attacks on their homelands

• instead, it would target naval fleets and overseas bomber bases

ICBM development

• germany had a early lead in rocket technology

• the US began serious ICBM work in the early 1950s, deploying operationally by the end of the decade

Art’s takeaways

1. US did not absolutely need to enter WW2 for its security

2. the Cold War would that emerged WW2 was more secure for. the US than an isolated quarter sphere

3. beyond security, there were strong geopolitical and moral reasons to enter the war

ultimately Spykman was

right; the US needed to enter WW2, even if his economic strangulation argument was flawed

power relations

dominate international politics

projection of US military power

influences global political and economic outcomes; that in turn shape US domestic affairs

US needed to enter WW2

but strangulation was not inevitable

US had more

resources than Spykman believed