Global Demography

The term demography was derived from the Greek words demos for “population” and graphia for “description” or “writing,” thus the phrase, “writings about population.”

Achille Guillard

Demography was coined by _______________, a Belgian statistician, in 1855.

Bills of Mortality

the John Graunt’s analysis of ‘_______________’ which was published in 1662.

demography

___________________ refers to the study of populations, with reference to size and density, fertility, mortality, growth, age distribution, migration, and vital statistics and the interaction of all these with social and economic conditions”.

1700

Demographic transition started in mid- or late ___________’s in Europe. During that time, death rates and fertility began to decline.

High to low fertility

________________ happened 200 years in France and 100 years in the United States.

Africa and Asia

It was only in the 20th century that mortality decline in ______________, with the exemption of Japan.

India

In India, life expectancy in ________ was only 24 years in the early 20th century while the same life expectancy occurred in China in 1929 until 1931.

1950

Fertility decline in Asia did not begin until the ____’s and so on.

1930

In the case of Japan, it was until the ____’s that “total fertility rate did not drop below five births per woman”. This resulted in rapid population growth after the Second World War affecting the age structure of Asia and the developing world.

the enormous gap in life expectancy

A remarkable effect of the demographic transition is ‘_______________________ that emerged between Japan and the West on the one hand and the rest of the world on the other.”

12, 20

By 1820, the life expectancy at birth of Japan and the West was ________ years greater than that of other countries. It increased by ___ years by 1900.

22, 14

Although there was an improvement in life expectancy all throughout the world in 1900-1950, the gap had reached __ years. In 1999, the gap declined to ___ years.

Europe and the West

During the 19th century, ______________ had an increased in share in the world’s population, from 22.0 percent to 33.0 percent

Asia and Oceania

while _______________ ’s contribution dropped from 69.0 percent to 56.7. India and China suffered from economic stagnation and decline during that time.

Africa, Asia, Latin America, and Oceania

There was a reverse in global population shares during the 20th century as _________________________ had high levels of population growth rates.

Reminder:

Population growth shows a more remarkable shift: “Between 1820 and 1980, 69.3 percent of the world’s population growth occurred in Europe and Western offshoots. Between 1950 and 2000, however, only 11.7 percent occurred in the region.”

Africa

The United States projected that population growth will be shifted toward _______.

Africa

It is estimated that by 2150, ______’s share to the world population will be almost 20 percent, relatively much greater than its share in 1820 (seven percent) and in 1900 (six percent).

two billion

Also, in 2150, there will be a projected increase of _________ if we combine the population of Asia, Latin America, and Oceania.

1950

In terms of age structure, the overall trend in Japan and the West was downward until _______. Their dependency ratio was close to 0.5. It only increased, although temporary, when the baby boom after the Second World War occurred.

Japan

Japan’s dependency ratio, however, increased between 1888 and 1920. its dependency ratio was higher than the West between 1920 and the early 1950’s. It dropped in 1970 and 89 later since its precipitous decline in childbearing during the 1950’s and low fertility rates in recent years.

1900

The developing countries like India and the Philippines had higher dependency ratios than the West in _____. A great increase in dependency ratio was caused by the decline in infant and child mortality and high levels of fertility, with its peak around 1970.

Dependency ratios

________________ started to disappear because there is a decline in global birth rate.

pre-industrial

In stage one, ______________ society, death rates and birth rates are high and roughly in balance.

Western Europe

In stage one, pre-industrial society, death rates and birth rates are high and roughly in balance. An example of this stage is the United States in the 1800s. All human populations are believed to have had this balance until the late 18th century, when this balance ended in ____________. In fact, growth rates were less than 0.05% at least since the Agricultural Revolution over 10,000 years ago.

Stage 1

Population growth is typically very slow in this stage, because the society is constrained by the available food supply; therefore, unless the society develops new technologies to increase food production (e.g. discovers new sources of food or achieves higher crop yields), any fluctuations in birth rates are soon matched by death rates.

Stage 2

In stage two, that of a developing country, death rates drop rapidly due to improvements in food supply and sanitation, which increase life spans and reduce disease. Afghanistan is currently in this stage.

Stage 2

The improvements specific to food supply typically include selective breeding and crop rotation and farming techniques. Other improvements generally include access to technology, basic healthcare, and education.

Stage 2

Prior to the mid-20th 90 century, these improvements in public health were primarily in the areas of food handling, water supply, sewage, and personal hygiene. Another variable often cited is the increase in female literacy combined with public health education programs which emerged in the late 19th and early 20th centuries.

Stage 2

In Europe, the death rate decline started in the late 18th century in northwestern Europe and spread to the south and east over approximately the next 100 years. Without a corresponding fall in birth rates this produces an imbalance, and the countries in this stage experience a large increase in population.

Stage 3

In ____________, birth rates fall. Mexico’s population is at this stage.

Stage 3

Birth rates decrease due to various fertility factors such as access to contraception, increases in wages, urbanization, a reduction in subsistence agriculture, an increase in the status and education of women, a reduction in the value of children’s work, an increase in parental investment in the education of children and other social changes. Population growth begins to level off. The birth rate decline in developed countries started in the late 19th century in northern Europe.

contraception

While improvements in ________________ do play a role in birth rate decline, it should be noted that contraceptives were not generally available nor widely used in the 19th century and as a result likely did not play a significant role in the decline then.

Reminder:

It is important to note that birth rate decline is caused also by a transition in values; not just because of the availability of contraceptives.

Stage 4

During _________-, there are both low birth rates and low death rates.

Sweden

Birth rates may drop to well below replacement level as has happened in countries like Germany, Italy, and Japan, leading to a shrinking population, a threat to many industries that rely on population growth. _________ is considered to currently be in Stage 4.

Stage 4

As the large group born during stage two ages, it creates an economic burden on the shrinking working population. Death rates may remain consistently low or increase slightly due to increases in lifestyle diseases due to low exercise levels and high obesity and an aging population in developed countries. By the late 20th century, birth rates and death rates in developed countries leveled off at lower rates.

below-replacement fertility levels.

Some scholars delineate a separate fifth stage of__________________.

fertility

Others hypothesize a different stage five involving an increase in ___________.

United Nations Population Fund (2008)

______________________________ categorizes nations as high-fertility, intermediate-fertility, or low-fertility.

sub-Saharan Africa

The United Nations (UN) anticipates the population growth will triple between 2011 and 2100 in high-fertility countries, which are currently concentrated in _________________.

intermediate fertility

For countries with _____________________ rates (the United States, India, and Mexico all fall into this category), growth is expected to be about 26 percent.

Low-fertility countries

_____________________ like China, Australia, and most of Europe will actually see population decline of approximately 20 percent.