AP HG Unit 2

What does the birth rate reveal about a country?

It can indicate the level of development—high birth rates (18–50) in less developed rural countries; low birth rates (8–17) in urbanized, developed countries.

What is the crude death rate (CDR)?

The annual number of deaths per 1,000 people in a population.

Why do death rates reveal less today than in the past?

Improved health care, nutrition, and sanitation have reduced death rates globally, making them less reflective of economic status.

What is the rate of natural increase (RNI)?

Birth rate minus death rate, divided by 10; gives the annual percentage growth of a population.

Can RNI be negative?

Yes; if the death rate exceeds the birth rate, the RNI is negative, meaning the population is shrinking.

Why might a developed country have a negative RNI?

Increased female workforce participation, lower fertility, higher divorce rates, and widespread access to contraception.

What is “natural” about the rate of natural increase?

It excludes migration; only birth and death rates are considered.

What is doubling time?

The estimated time it takes for a population to double in size, calculated as 70 divided by the RNI.

What limits the accuracy of doubling time predictions?

Migration and changing RNI values over time.

What is the demographic equation?

(Birth rate - death rate) + net migration rate = total population growth per 1,000 people.

What is net migration rate (NMR)?

The number of immigrants minus emigrants per 1,000 population.

What is total fertility rate (TFR)?

The average number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime (ages 15–45).

Is TFR the same as RNI?

No; TFR is a lifetime average, while RNI is an annual growth rate.

What is the replacement rate?

A TFR of 2.1, which allows a population to replace itself from one generation to the next.

Why is the replacement rate 2.1 and not 2.0?

Because some children die before reaching adulthood, the extra 0.1 accounts for those losses.

What happens when TFR = 2.1 but RNI > 0?

Population is still growing, but at a slower rate.

What is the dependency ratio?

The ratio of people too young or old to work compared to those of working age.

Why is the dependency ratio important?

It shows the financial burden on the working population to support dependents.

What is the Demographic Transition Model (DTM)?

A model that explains population growth as a country develops economically through five stages.

What does placing a country on the DTM tell us?

It reveals the country's level of economic development, fertility, urbanization, and migration trends.

What is the Epidemiological Transition Model (ETM)?

A model that links population growth to medical advances and shifts in causes of death.

What does the ETM predict?

That as countries develop, death rates decline due to health advances, followed by lower birth rates.

What stage is the world currently in according to the DTM?

Early stage 3—population growth is still occurring but slowing.

What does the DTM reveal about economic history?

It aligns historical population changes with economic phases like the Industrial Revolution and the rise of service economies.

What is a DINK household?

Double Income, No Kids—common in countries with low fertility and negative RNI.

How does migration affect population growth?

It can offset low birth rates or amplify population growth beyond what RNI predicts.

What are NICs in the context of the DTM?

Newly Industrialized Countries, such as Brazil, Mexico, and India, that have recently transitioned from agricultural to manufacturing economies (Stage 2 to Stage 3).

Why doesn’t China fit neatly into the DTM?

China’s One-Child Policy distorted natural demographic trends, making it appear more developed demographically than economically.

What characterizes Stage 1 of the DTM?

High birth and death rates with little population growth; typical of pre-industrial societies.

What types of economies exist in Stage 1?

Subsistence economies—hunting and gathering, transhumance, and subsistence farming.

Why were birth rates high in Stage 1?

Children were needed for labor and survival; high infant mortality encouraged larger families.

Why were death rates high in Stage 1?

Lack of medical care, poor sanitation, low nutrition, famine, war, and physical labor caused low life expectancy.

What is the life expectancy range in Stage 1?

33–50 years.

Is any country still in Stage 1 today?

No entire country, but some small, isolated Indigenous groups still fit Stage 1 conditions.

What is the S-curve of population?

A growth pattern that shows rapid increase followed by a leveling off due to reaching carrying capacity.

What causes the plateau in the S-curve?

Reaching or exceeding the carrying capacity of the environment.

What are the key features of Stage 2 of the DTM?

High birth rates, declining death rates, increasing life expectancy, and rapid population growth.

What type of economy is typical in Stage 2?

Agricultural economies, particularly those focused on trade crops.

Why do birth rates remain high in Stage 2?

Children are needed for farm labor; lack of access to contraception and medical care.

Why do death rates decline in Stage 2?

Better farming, more stable food supplies, permanent settlements, and slight improvements in health care.

What is the life expectancy range in Stage 2?

Higher than in Stage 1, but still low compared to developed countries.

What migration trend begins in Stage 2?

Increased rural-to-urban migration as people seek better opportunities in cities.

Why is population growth a concern in Stage 2?

Resources, infrastructure, and services may not keep pace with rapid growth, affecting quality of life.

What are examples of Stage 2 countries?

Laos and Mozambique—still agriculturally based with high growth potential.

What is the RNI range for Stage 1 countries?

–0.1% to 1.9%.

What is the typical birth rate in Stage 1?

Between 25 and 50 births per 1,000 people.

What is the typical death rate in Stage 1?

Between 25 and 40 deaths per 1,000 people.

How does warfare affect a country’s stage?

Prolonged warfare can cause a country to revert to or remain in Stage 1 due to high death rates.

Why is no country officially in Stage 1 today?

Global health and development have improved enough to lower death rates below Stage 1 thresholds.

What effect did the AIDS epidemic have in Africa?

In some regions, it caused Stage 1-like demographic conditions and hindered economic progress.

What distinguishes Stage 1 from Stage 2 most clearly?

A decline in death rates in Stage 2 while birth rates remain high, leading to rapid population growth.

What country is a good example of a Stage Two DTM country?

Yemen, with a high birth rate (28) and low death rate (6), resulting in an RNI of 2.3%.

What is Yemen's urbanization rate and main economic sector?

64% rural; most employment is in agriculture.

What is an Asian Stage Two example?

Nepal, with a birth rate of 20, death rate of 6, and RNI of 1.3%.

Why is Nepal growing more slowly than Yemen?

High emigration from Nepal slows its population growth.

What is the projected population of Yemen by 2050?

Over 50 million, up from 33 million.

What defines a Newly Industrialized Country (NIC)?

A country transitioning from agriculture to manufacturing with high RNI and rapid urbanization.

What are two major effects of industrialization in NICs?

High population growth and rapidly increasing urbanization.

How does urbanization affect birth rates in NICs?

Birth rates decline due to less time, space, and need for children in cities.

What are current demographic stats for Mexico?

Birth rate: 16, Death rate: 7, RNI: 1.1%, Life Expectancy: 75, Urbanization: 81%.

What are current demographic stats for Malaysia?

Birth rate: 14, Death rate: 7, RNI: 1.2%, Life Expectancy: 74, Urbanization: 75%.

What is the demographic trend in Mexico?

Slowing population growth with possible future decline.

What is the demographic trend in Malaysia?

Continued population increase expected.

What defines Stage Three of the DTM?

Declining birth and death rates; slowing population growth; more service-based economies.

What drives the drop in birth rates during Stage Three?

Urbanization, women's education/employment, health care access, and contraception.

How do death rates change in Stage Three?

Continue to fall due to antibiotics, vaccines, sanitation, and better health care.

What is the lowest death rate in the world and where?

Qatar, with a death rate of about 1.2 per 1,000 people.

How did China's One-Child Policy impact its DTM stage?

It pushed China to late Stage Three demographics despite being an NIC.

What are China's current demographic stats?

Birth rate: 12, Death rate: 7, RNI: 0.5%, Urbanization: 64%.

What is Uruguay’s demographic profile?

Birth rate: 13, Death rate: 9, RNI: 0.4%, Life Expectancy: 77, Urbanization: 92%.

What defines Stage Four of the DTM?

Birth and death rates converge; little to no population growth; service-based economy dominates.

What is the economic structure of Stage Four countries?

Primarily service-based (finance, healthcare, education, real estate).

What is Zero Population Growth (ZPG)?

When birth and death rates are equal, resulting in an RNI of 0.0%.

What defines Stage Five of the DTM?

Very low birth rates drop below death rates, leading to negative population growth.

Which countries are examples of Stage Five trends?

Japan and Germany, due to low birth rates and aging populations.

What is Japan’s current RNI?

−0.2%, indicating a shrinking population.

What are the consequences of an aging population?

Lower tax base, slower economy, labor shortages, and increased elderly dependency.

Why didn’t Japan’s sales tax increase work?

People spent less money, further reducing economic activity.

What is the typical death rate range in Stage Four/Five countries?

5 to 14, depending on population age structure.

Why do birth rates fall in Stage Four/Five?

Widespread contraceptive use, delayed childbirth, women's empowerment, and urban lifestyles.

What is the typical RNI range for NICs?

1.1–2.7%, due to high birth and declining death rates.

What is the RNI range for Stage Three countries?

0.5–1.2%, as both birth and death rates decline.

What is the life expectancy in Stage Three countries?

Up to 78 years.

What distinguishes Stage Four from Stage Three?

Birth rates fall to match death rates, stabilizing or reducing population growth.

Why is Canada's population still growing despite a low RNI?

Canada has high immigration, especially from British Commonwealth countries.

What is Canada's RNI and expected population change?

RNI: 0.2%, from 38 million today to 42 million by 2050.

What is Italy’s current demographic status?

Birth rate: 9, death rate: 10, RNI: –0.1%, projected to grow slightly to 63.5 million by 2050 due to immigration.

Why do some countries with negative RNI still grow?

Because of positive net migration rates.

Why do countries offer pronatalist incentives?

To boost birth rates and address labor shortages due to low fertility and aging populations.

What are examples of pronatalist policies?

Free childcare, medical assistance, tax cuts for large families, and pro-family propaganda.

Which countries have used pronatalist policies?

Sweden, Germany, and Japan.

Why do some countries use anti-natalist policies?

To control overpopulation and reduce pressure on resources and services.

Which countries have implemented anti-natalist policies?

India, Kenya, and China (especially during the One-Child Policy era).

What was the impact of China’s One-Child Policy?

Declined birth rate but caused gender imbalance due to a preference for male children.

What are Stage Four DTM birth and death rates?

Birth: 8–16, Death: 5–12.

What is the RNI range for Stage Four countries?

Low to Negative (0.8% to –0.6%).

What is the life expectancy in Stage Four countries?

Typically under 82 years.

What defines Stage Five of the DTM?

Birth rate falls below death rate, leading to negative RNI and population decline.

What are examples of Stage Five countries?

Japan and Germany.

Why are Eastern European countries experiencing decline?

High emigration, economic restructuring, and lingering effects of communism.